Showing 1–50 of 79 results for author: Cromartie, H T

The NANOGrav 15 yr and 20 yr Datasets: Timing Events and Pulse Shape Changes

Authors: Ben Jacobson-Bell, James M. Cordes, Shami Chatterjee, Sashabaw Niedbalski, Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Jeremy G. Baier, Paul T. Baker, Paul R. Brook, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Lankeswar Dey, Timothy Dolch, Elizabeth C. Ferrara, William Fiore, Emmanuel Fonseca, Gabriel E. Freedman, Nate Garver-Daniels, Peter A. Gentile, Joseph Glaser, Deborah C. Good , et al. (39 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The average pulse shape of a pulsar is typically stable over decadal timescales, enabling estimation of pulse times of arrival to better than a small fraction of the pulse width using matched filtering techniques. However, in North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) observations of PSR J1713+0747, three discrete timing events that depart from the prevailing timing mo… ▽ More The average pulse shape of a pulsar is typically stable over decadal timescales, enabling estimation of pulse times of arrival to better than a small fraction of the pulse width using matched filtering techniques. However, in North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) observations of PSR J1713+0747, three discrete timing events that depart from the prevailing timing model have been seen in the last 20 yr. All three correspond to morphological changes in pulse shape. Using principal component analysis, we analyze the pulse profiles of nine NANOGrav pulsars, including seven with profiles from the 15 yr dataset and two with additional profiles from the forthcoming 20 yr dataset. We recover the three known pulse shape change events in PSR J1713+0747 and another previously known event in PSR J1643$-$1224. We implement a ranking metric for candidate events and address four highly ranked candidates in this nine-pulsar sample. We also recover known slow pulse shape variations in PSR J1643$-$1224, PSR J1903+0327, and PSR B1937+21 and report an unexpected recurrence after ~10 yr of one such variation in PSR B1937+21. △ Less

Submitted 7 April, 2026; originally announced April 2026.

Comments: 27 pages, 3 tables, 18 figures incl. 3 figure sets in ancillary files. Submitted to ApJ

Gravitational Wave Measurement of the Mbh-Mbulge Intrinsic Scatter at High Redshift

Authors: Cayenne Matt, Kayhan Gültekin, Gabriella Agazie, Nikita Agarwal, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Jeremy G. Baier, Paul T. Baker, Bence Bécsy, Laura Blecha, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, Rand Burnette, Robin Case, J. Andrew Casey-Clyde, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Tyler Cohen, James M. Cordes, Neil J. Cornish, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter , et al. (87 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The observed GWB spectrum is higher in amplitude than model predictions by a factor of 2-3. Using a semi-analytic model, we evaluate the effect of a high-scatter supermassive black hole (SMBH) scaling relation (Mbh-Mbulge) on models of the nanoHertz gravitational wave background (GWB). By implementing an intrinsic scatter of the Mbh-Mbulge relation, which is larger at higher redshift, but matches… ▽ More The observed GWB spectrum is higher in amplitude than model predictions by a factor of 2-3. Using a semi-analytic model, we evaluate the effect of a high-scatter supermassive black hole (SMBH) scaling relation (Mbh-Mbulge) on models of the nanoHertz gravitational wave background (GWB). By implementing an intrinsic scatter of the Mbh-Mbulge relation, which is larger at higher redshift, but matches local observations, we find that the amplitude of GWB models increases to be consistent with the low-frequency end of the GWB spectrum. This amplitude increase is not uniform across frequencies, a strongly evolving scatter preferentially increases the number density of the most massive SMBHs which, in the GWB spectrum, minimizes the strength of the low-frequency turnover. Our models with positively evolving intrinsic scatter can reproduce the electromagnetically observed overmassive SMBHs at 4 < z < 6 without changing the Mbh-Mbulge normalization though we find that including moderate normalization evolution improves fits to the GWB data. We conclude that the Mbh-Mbulge relation which best describes the available GWB and electromagnetic data sets has intrinsic scatter which evolves as epsilon(z) = epsilon_0 + (0.56 +/- 0.4) log10(1 + z) and normalization which evolves as alpha(z) = alpha_0 (1 + z)^(0.84 +/- 0.35). The results of this work imply that the Mbh-Mbulge relation we see today is not universal throughout cosmic time and that a diversity of seeding models and growth mechanisms may be at play in the early stages of SMBH-galaxy evolution. △ Less

Submitted 11 March, 2026; originally announced March 2026.

Comments: Submitted to AAS journals

An updated constraint for the Gravitational Wave Background from the Gamma-ray Pulsar Timing Array

Authors: Serena Valtolina, Colin J. Clark, Rutger van Haasteren, Aurélien Chalumeau, H. Thankful Cromartie, Matthew Kerr, Lars Nieder, Aditya Parthasarathy

Abstract: Fermi LAT observations of gamma-ray pulsars can be used to build a pulsar timing array (PTA) experiment to search for gravitational wave (GW) signals at nanohertz frequencies. At those frequencies, the dominant signal is expected to be a stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB) produced by the incoherent superposition of the quasi-monochromatic GW emissions from a population of supermassive… ▽ More Fermi LAT observations of gamma-ray pulsars can be used to build a pulsar timing array (PTA) experiment to search for gravitational wave (GW) signals at nanohertz frequencies. At those frequencies, the dominant signal is expected to be a stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB) produced by the incoherent superposition of the quasi-monochromatic GW emissions from a population of supermassive black hole binaries. While the radio PTAs have recently announced compelling evidence for a GWB signal with a power law spectrum of strain amplitude $\approx2-3\times10^{-15}$ (at the frequency of $1 {\rm yr}^{-1}$), in 2022 an analysis of $12.5$ years of Fermi data for 35 pulsars led to an upper limit of $1\times10^{-14}$ for the GWB amplitude. The analysis was carried out on times-of-arrival (TOAs) obtained by folding from six months up to one year of photon observations. A photon-by-photon approach was also tested to infer constraints on the GWB amplitude from individual pulsars, but without accounting for the cross-pulsar correlations that a GWB would induce. Here, we reanalyse the same dataset using a regularized likelihood method that correctly models cross-pulsar correlations directly from the photons, while additionally marginalising over the uncertain pulse profile shape. While the two methods are not expected to have significant differences in sensitivity, we prove through simulations of gamma-ray PTA datasets that the photon-by-photon method for GWB recoveries is, statistically, more robust. The resulting upper limit obtained for the GWB strain amplitude is $1.2\times10^{-14}$, indicating that the improved method yields a consistent result with the previous analyses. △ Less

Submitted 31 March, 2026; v1 submitted 13 February, 2026; originally announced February 2026.

Comments: 12 pages, 5 figures. Published in Physical Review D

Journal ref: Phys. Rev. D 113, 063061 (2026)

The SKAO Pulsar Timing Array

Authors: Ryan M. Shannon, N. D. Ramesh Bhat, Aurelien Chalumeau, Siyuan Chen, H. Thankful Cromartie, A. Gopukumar, Kathrin Grunthal, Jeffrey S. Hazboun, Francesco Iraci, Bhal Chandra Joshi, Ryo Kato, Michael J. Keith, Kejia Lee, Kuo Liu, Hannah Middleton, Matthew T. Miles, Chiara M. F. Mingarelli, Aditya Parthasarathy, Daniel J. Reardon, Golam M. Shaifullah, Keitaro Takahashi, Caterina Tiburzi, Riccardo J. Truant, Xiao Xue, Andrew Zic , et al. (1 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are ensembles of millisecond pulsars observed for years to decades. The primary goal of PTAs is to study gravitational-wave astronomy at nanohertz frequencies, with secondary goals of undertaking other fundamental tests of physics and astronomy. Recently, compelling evidence has emerged in established PTA experiments for the presence of a gravitational-wave background.… ▽ More Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are ensembles of millisecond pulsars observed for years to decades. The primary goal of PTAs is to study gravitational-wave astronomy at nanohertz frequencies, with secondary goals of undertaking other fundamental tests of physics and astronomy. Recently, compelling evidence has emerged in established PTA experiments for the presence of a gravitational-wave background. To accelerate a confident detection of such a signal and then study gravitational-wave emitting sources, it is necessary to observe a larger number of millisecond pulsars to greater timing precision. The SKAO telescopes, which will be a factor of three to four greater in sensitivity compared to any other southern hemisphere facility, are poised to make such an impact. In this chapter, we motivate an SKAO pulsar timing array (SKAO PTA) experiment. We discuss the classes of gravitational waves present in PTA observations and how an SKAO PTA can detect and study them. We then describe the sources that can produce these signals. We discuss the astrophysical noise sources that must be mitigated to undertake the most sensitive searches. We then describe a realistic PTA experiment implemented with the SKA and place it in context alongside other PTA experiments likely ongoing in the 2030s. We describe the techniques necessary to search for gravitational waves in the SKAO PTA and motivate how very long baseline interferometry can improve the sensitivity of an SKAO PTA. The SKAO PTA will provide a view of the Universe complementary to those of the other large facilities of the 2030s. △ Less

Submitted 17 December, 2025; originally announced December 2025.

Comments: Published in The Open Journal of Astrophysics, as part of a special issue on pulsar science with the SKAO

The NANOGrav 12.5-year Data Set: Chromatic Noise Characterization & Mitigation with Time-Domain Kernels

Authors: Jeffrey S. Hazboun, Joseph Simon, Jeremy Baier, Bjorn Larsen, Daniel J. Oliver, Paul T. Baker, Bence Bécsy, Siyuan Chen, Alberto Diaz Hernandez, Justin A. Ellis, A. Miguel Holgado, Kristina Islo, Aaron Johnson, Andrew R. Kaiser, Nima Laal, Alexander McEwen, Nihan S. Pol, Joey Shapiro Key, Min Young Kim, Matthew Samson, Brent J. Shapiro-Albert, Jerry P. Sun, Stephen R. Taylor, Caitlin A. Witt, Jeremy Volpe , et al. (42 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) have recently entered the detection era, quickly moving beyond the goal of simply improving sensitivity at the lowest frequencies for the sake of observing the stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB), and focusing on its accurate spectral characterization. While all PTA collaborations around the world use Fourier-domain Gaussian processes to model the GWB and int… ▽ More Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) have recently entered the detection era, quickly moving beyond the goal of simply improving sensitivity at the lowest frequencies for the sake of observing the stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB), and focusing on its accurate spectral characterization. While all PTA collaborations around the world use Fourier-domain Gaussian processes to model the GWB and intrinsic long time-correlated (red) noise, techniques to model the time-correlated radio frequency-dependent (chromatic) processes have varied from collaboration to collaboration. Here we test a new class of models for PTA data, Gaussian processes based on time-domain kernels that model the statistics of the chromatic processes starting from the covariance matrix. As we will show, these models can be effectively equivalent to Fourier-domain models in mitigating chromatic noise. This work presents a method for Bayesian model selection across the various choices of kernel as well as deterministic chromatic models for non-stationary chromatic events and the solar wind. As PTAs turn towards high frequency (>1/yr) sensitivity, the size of the basis used to model these processes will need to increase, and these time-domain models present some computational efficiencies compared to Fourier-domain models. △ Less

Submitted 27 November, 2025; originally announced November 2025.

Comments: 30 pages, 12 Figures, 6 Tables

Shapiro Delay Measurements from Fifteen Years of PSR J1231$-$1411 Radio Observations

Authors: H. Thankful Cromartie, Matthew Kerr, Scott M. Ransom, Paul S. Ray, Lucas Guillemot, Ismaël Cognard, Emmanuel Fonseca, Gilles Theureau

Abstract: We present 15 years of Nançay and Green Bank radio telescope timing observations for PSR J1231$-$1411. This millisecond pulsar is a primary science target for the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer telescope (NICER, which discovered its X-ray pulsations), has accumulated near-continuous $γ$-ray data since the Fermi-Large Area Telescope's launch, and has been studied extensively with the Gr… ▽ More We present 15 years of Nançay and Green Bank radio telescope timing observations for PSR J1231$-$1411. This millisecond pulsar is a primary science target for the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer telescope (NICER, which discovered its X-ray pulsations), has accumulated near-continuous $γ$-ray data since the Fermi-Large Area Telescope's launch, and has been studied extensively with the Green Bank and Nançay radio telescopes. We have undertaken a campaign with the Green Bank Telescope targeting specific orbital phases designed to improve our constraint on the pulsar's mass through the detection of a relativistic Shapiro delay. Both frequentist and Bayesian techniques -- the latter incorporating priors from white dwarf binary evolution models -- are applied to fifteen years of radio observations, yielding relatively weak constraints on the companion and pulsar masses of $0.23^{+0.09}_{-0.06}$ M$_{\odot}$ and $1.87^{+1.11}_{-0.67}$ M$_{\odot}$, respectively (68.3% CI from Bayesian fits); however, the orbital inclination is measured to better relative precision ($79.80^{+3.47}_{-4.70}$ degrees). Restricting the maximum allowed pulsar mass to 3 M$_{\odot}$ improves the constraint and lowers the measured mass to $1.71^{+0.70}_{-0.56}$ M$_{\odot}$. A fully-generalized Bayesian fit that simultaneously samples the noise and timing models yields a pulsar mass in close agreement with this value. While our radio-derived inclination result has informed recent NICER X-ray studies of PSR J1231$-$1411, the lessons learned from this troublesome pulsar will also bolster future high-precision mass measurement campaigns and resulting constraints on the neutron star interior equation of state. △ Less

Submitted 26 February, 2026; v1 submitted 13 November, 2025; originally announced November 2025.

Comments: 15 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables. Published in ApJ. The replacement adds references to WD studies and presents an additional result limiting the mass to 3 Msun

Journal ref: ApJ 999 115 (2026)

CHIME-o-Grav: Wideband Timing of Four Millisecond Pulsars from the NANOGrav 15-yr dataset

Authors: Gabriella Agazie, David L. Kaplan, Abhimanyu Susobhanan, Ingrid H. Stairs, Deborah C. Good, Bradley W. Meyers, Emmanuel Fonseca, Timothy T. Pennucci, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Paul T. Baker, Paul R. Brook, Alyssa Cassity, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Timothy Dolch, Fengqiu Adam Dong, Elizabeth C. Ferrara, William Fiore, Gabriel E. Freedman, Nate Garver-Daniels, Peter A. Gentile , et al. (28 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Wideband timing of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) datasets, where a single time-of-arrival (TOA) and a single dispersion measure (DM) are measured using the entire bandwidth of each observation, was first done for the 12.5-year dataset, and proved to be invaluable for characterizing the time-varying dispersion measure, reducing the data volume, and for… ▽ More Wideband timing of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) datasets, where a single time-of-arrival (TOA) and a single dispersion measure (DM) are measured using the entire bandwidth of each observation, was first done for the 12.5-year dataset, and proved to be invaluable for characterizing the time-varying dispersion measure, reducing the data volume, and for improving the overall timing precision. The Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment (CHIME) Telescope has been observing most NANOGrav millisecond pulsars (MSPs) at nearly daily cadence (compared to roughly monthly cadence for other NANOGrav observations) since 2019 with the objective of integration into future pulsar timing array (PTA) datasets. In this paper, we show the results of integration of high-cadence, low-observing-frequency CHIME data with data from the NANOGrav experiment for an isolated MSP PSR J0645$+$5158 and three binary MSPs PSR J1012$+$5307, PSR J2145$-$0750, and PSR J2302$+$4442. Using a wideband timing pipeline which we also describe, we present updated timing results for all four sources, including improvements in measurements of relativistic post-Keplerian parameters for the three binary pulsars in this analysis. For PSR J2302$+$4442, we report an updated strong detection of Shapiro delay from which we measured a companion mass of $0.35^{+0.05}_{-0.04}\ M_{\odot}$, a pulsar mass of $1.8^{+0.3}_{-0.3}\ M_{\odot}$, and an orbital inclination of ${80^{\circ}}^{+1}_{-2}$. We also report updated constraints on the reflex motion for PSR J2145$-$0750 using a combination of Very Long Baseline Array astrometry and our updated measurement of the time derivative of the projected semi-major axis of the pulsar orbit as a prior. △ Less

Submitted 23 March, 2026; v1 submitted 18 October, 2025; originally announced October 2025.

Comments: 20 pages, 11 figures, Accepted to APJ

Searching for Exotrojans in Pulsar Systems

Authors: Jackson D. Taylor, Emmanuel Fonseca, Lankeswar Dey, Sergey Zharikov, Aida Kirichenko, Joseph Glaser, Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Paul T. Baker, Paul R. Brook, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Timothy Dolch, Elizabeth C. Ferrara, William Fiore, Gabriel E. Freedman, Nate Garver-Daniels, Peter A. Gentile, Deborah C. Good, Jeffrey S. Hazboun, Ross J. Jennings , et al. (28 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Trojan asteroids are found in the equilateral triangle Lagrange points of the Sun-Jupiter system in great number, though they also exist less prolifically in other parts of the Solar System. Despite up to planetary mass Trojans being predicted in extrasolar systems (i.e. exotrojans), they remain unconfirmed, although strong candidate evidence has emerged recently. For the first time, we extend the… ▽ More Trojan asteroids are found in the equilateral triangle Lagrange points of the Sun-Jupiter system in great number, though they also exist less prolifically in other parts of the Solar System. Despite up to planetary mass Trojans being predicted in extrasolar systems (i.e. exotrojans), they remain unconfirmed, although strong candidate evidence has emerged recently. For the first time, we extend the search for exotrojans to radio pulsars with low-mass ($\sim0.01\,\rm{M}_\odot$) companions using accurately measured pulse times of arrival. With techniques developed for detecting the reflex motion of a star due to a librating Trojan, we place $\sim 1\,\rm{M}_\oplus$ upper mass constraints on potential exotrojans around eight pulsars observed in the NANOGrav 15-year data set. We find weak evidence consistent with $\sim2$--4$\,\rm{M}_{\rm J}$ exotrojans in the PSR~J0023+0923 and PSR~J1705$-$1903 binary systems, though the signals likely have a different, unknown source. We also place a libration-independent upper mass constraint of $\sim8$\,M$_{\rm J}$ on exotrojans in the PSR~J1641+8049 system by looking for an inconsistency between the times of superior conjunction as measured by optical light curves and those predicted by radio timing. These results offer initial observational constraints on the existence of exotrojans around pulsars, while their possible formation mechanisms remain unexplored. △ Less

Submitted 24 March, 2026; v1 submitted 17 October, 2025; originally announced October 2025.

Comments: 20 pages, 9 figures, 3 tables; Published in ApJ

Journal ref: ApJ 1000 (2026) 82

The NANOGrav 15-Year Data Set: Improved Timing Precision With VLBI Astrometric Priors

Authors: Sofia V. Sosa Fiscella, Michael T. Lam, Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Paul T. Baker, Paul R. Brook, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Maria Silvina De Biasi, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Timothy Dolch, Elizabeth C. Ferrara, William Fiore, Emmanuel Fonseca, Gabriel E. Freedman, Nate Garver-Daniels, Peter A. Gentile, Joseph Glaser, Deborah C. Good, Jeffrey S. Hazboun, Ross J. Jennings, Megan L. Jones , et al. (25 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Accurate pulsar astrometric estimates play an essential role in almost all high-precision pulsar timing experiments. Traditional pulsar timing techniques refine these estimates by including them as free parameters when fitting a model to observed pulse time-of-arrival measurements. However, reliable sub-milliarcsecond astrometric estimations require years of observations and, even then, power from… ▽ More Accurate pulsar astrometric estimates play an essential role in almost all high-precision pulsar timing experiments. Traditional pulsar timing techniques refine these estimates by including them as free parameters when fitting a model to observed pulse time-of-arrival measurements. However, reliable sub-milliarcsecond astrometric estimations require years of observations and, even then, power from red noise can be inadvertently absorbed into astrometric parameter fits, biasing the resulting estimations and reducing our sensitivity to red noise processes, including gravitational waves (GWs). In this work, we seek to mitigate these shortcomings by using pulsar astrometric estimates derived from Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) as priors for the timing fit. First, we calibrated a frame tie to account for the offsets between the reference frames used in VLBI and timing. Then, we used the VLBI-informed priors and timing-based likelihoods of several astrometric solutions consistent with both techniques to obtain a maximum-posterior astrometric solution. We found offsets between our results and the timing-based astrometric solutions, which, if real, would lead to absorption of spectral power at frequencies of interest for single-source GW searches. However, we do not find significant power absorption due to astrometric fitting at the low-frequency domain of the GW background. △ Less

Submitted 2 October, 2025; v1 submitted 25 September, 2025; originally announced September 2025.

Inferring Mbh-Mbulge Evolution from the Gravitational Wave Background

Authors: Cayenne Matt, Kayhan Gultekin, Luke Kelley, Laura Blecha, Joseph Simon, Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Jeremy Baier, Paul Baker, Bence Bécsy, Adam Brazier, Paul Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, Rand Burnette, Robin Case, James Casey-Clyde, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Tyler Cohen, James Cordes, Neil Cornish, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie , et al. (82 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: We test the impact of an evolving supermassive black hole (SMBH) mass scaling relation (Mbh-Mbulge) on the predictions for the gravitational wave background (GWB). The observed GWB amplitude is 2-3 times higher than predicted by astrophysically informed models which suggests the need to revise the assumptions in those models. We compare a semi-analytic model's ability to reproduce the observed GWB… ▽ More We test the impact of an evolving supermassive black hole (SMBH) mass scaling relation (Mbh-Mbulge) on the predictions for the gravitational wave background (GWB). The observed GWB amplitude is 2-3 times higher than predicted by astrophysically informed models which suggests the need to revise the assumptions in those models. We compare a semi-analytic model's ability to reproduce the observed GWB spectrum with a static versus evolving-amplitude Mbh-Mbulge relation. We additionally consider the influence of the choice of galaxy stellar mass function on the modeled GWB spectra. Our models are able to reproduce the GWB amplitude with either a large number density of massive galaxies or a positively evolving Mbh-Mbulge amplitude (i.e., the Mbh / Mbulge ratio was higher in the past). If we assume that the Mbh-Mbulge amplitude does not evolve, our models require a galaxy stellar mass function that implies an undetected population of massive galaxies (Mstellar > 10^11 Msun at z > 1). When the Mbh-Mbulge amplitude is allowed to evolve, we can model the GWB spectrum with all fiducial values and an Mbh-Mbulge amplitude that evolves as alpha(z) = alpha_0 (1 + z)^(1.04 +/- 0.5). △ Less

Submitted 8 December, 2025; v1 submitted 25 August, 2025; originally announced August 2025.

Comments: Accepted for publication in ApJ

Journal ref: Astrophys. J. 997, 188 (2026)

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Targeted Searches for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

Authors: Nikita Agarwal, Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Jeremy G. Baier, Paul T. Baker, Bence Becsy, Laura Blecha, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, Rand Burnette, Robin Case, J. Andrew Casey-Clyde, Yu-Ting Chang, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Tyler Cohen, Paolo Coppi, James M. Cordes, Neil J. Cornish, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter , et al. (94 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: We present the first targeted searches for continuous gravitational waves (CWs) from 114 active galactic nuclei (AGN) that may host supermassive black hole binaries, using the NANOGrav 15 yr data set. By incorporating electromagnetic priors on sky location, distance, redshift, and CW frequency, our strain and chirp mass upper limits are typically improved by a factor of $\sim 2$ (median 2.2) relat… ▽ More We present the first targeted searches for continuous gravitational waves (CWs) from 114 active galactic nuclei (AGN) that may host supermassive black hole binaries, using the NANOGrav 15 yr data set. By incorporating electromagnetic priors on sky location, distance, redshift, and CW frequency, our strain and chirp mass upper limits are typically improved by a factor of $\sim 2$ (median 2.2) relative to all-sky limits at the same frequency. Bayesian comparisons against a model including only a Hellings-Downs correlated background disfavors a CW signal for all targets, with a mean Bayes factor of $0.73 \pm 0.32$. Two targets have Bayes factors slightly above unity, but coherence tests, random targeting experiments, and a conservative accounting of the 114-target trials factor all indicate that they are consistent with noise. We use these two candidates as worked examples to illustrate an end-to-end targeted CW search analysis and a suite of follow up tests that future promising candidates would need to pass. We find that the electromagnetic interpretations of both candidates are ambiguous, and we update the constraints on a putative binary in 3C 66B, ruling out part of its previously allowed parameter space. Ultimately, our results demonstrate the current sensitivity of targeted pulsar timing array searches for CWs and define a roadmap for future multimessenger CW detections. △ Less

Submitted 13 January, 2026; v1 submitted 22 August, 2025; originally announced August 2025.

Comments: Accepted for publication in ApJ Letters

Journal ref: The Astrophysical Journal Letters, Volume 998, Issue 1, id.L11, 28 pp. (2026)

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Gravitational Scattering of Pulsars by Free-Floating Objects in Interstellar Space

Authors: Lankeswar Dey, Ross J. Jennings, Jackson D. Taylor, Joseph Glaser, Maura A. McLaughlin, Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Paul T. Baker, Paul R. Brook, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Timothy Dolch, Elizabeth C. Ferrara, William Fiore, Emmanuel Fonseca, Gabriel E. Freedman, Nate Garver-Daniels, Peter A. Gentile, Deborah C. Good, Jeffrey S. Hazboun, Megan L. Jones , et al. (26 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Free-floating objects (FFOs) in interstellar space$-$rogue planets, brown dwarfs, and large asteroids that are not gravitationally bound to any star$-$are expected to be ubiquitous throughout the Milky Way. Recent microlensing surveys have discovered several free-floating planets that are not bound to any known stellar systems. Additionally, three interstellar objects, namely 1I/'Oumuamua, 2I/Bori… ▽ More Free-floating objects (FFOs) in interstellar space$-$rogue planets, brown dwarfs, and large asteroids that are not gravitationally bound to any star$-$are expected to be ubiquitous throughout the Milky Way. Recent microlensing surveys have discovered several free-floating planets that are not bound to any known stellar systems. Additionally, three interstellar objects, namely 1I/'Oumuamua, 2I/Borisov, and 3I/ATLAS, have been detected passing through our solar system on hyperbolic trajectories. In this work, we search for FFOs on hyperbolic orbits that pass near millisecond pulsars (MSPs), where their gravitational influence can induce detectable perturbations in pulse arrival times. Using the NANOGrav 15-year narrowband dataset, which contains high-precision timing data for 68 MSPs, we conduct a search for such hyperbolic scattering events between FFOs and pulsars. Although no statistically significant events were detected, this non-detection enables us to place upper limits on the number density of FFOs as a function of their mass within our local region of the Galaxy. For example, the upper limit on the number density for Jupiter-mass FFOs ($\sim 10^{-2.5} - 10^{-3.5}~M_{\odot}$) obtained from different pulsars ranges from $5.25\times10^{6}~\text{pc}^{-3}$ to $5.37\times10^{9}~\text{pc}^{-3}$, while the upper limit calculated by combining results from all the pulsars is $6.03\times10^{5}~\text{pc}^{-3}$. These results represent the first constraints on FFO population derived from pulsar timing data. △ Less

Submitted 8 December, 2025; v1 submitted 25 July, 2025; originally announced July 2025.

Comments: 24 pages, 3 figures, 5 tables, Accepted for publication in ApJ

The NANOGrav 15-Year Data Set: A Case Study for Simplified Dispersion Measure Modeling for PSR J1455-3330 and the Impact on Gravitational Wave Sensitivity

Authors: Michael T. Lam, David L. Kaplan, Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Paul T. Baker, Paul R. Brook, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Timothy Dolch, Elizabeth C. Ferrara, William Fiore, Emmanuel Fonseca, Gabriel E. Freedman, Nate Garver-Daniels, Peter A. Gentile, Joseph Glaser, Deborah C. Good, Jeffrey S. Hazboun, Ross J. Jennings, Megan L. Jones, Matthew Kerr , et al. (24 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Evidence for a low-frequency gravitational-wave background using pulsar timing arrays has generated recent interest into its underlying contributing sources. However, multiple investigations have seen that the significance of the evidence does not change with choice of pulsar modeling techniques but the resulting parameters from the gravitational wave searches do. PSR J1455-3330 is one of the long… ▽ More Evidence for a low-frequency gravitational-wave background using pulsar timing arrays has generated recent interest into its underlying contributing sources. However, multiple investigations have seen that the significance of the evidence does not change with choice of pulsar modeling techniques but the resulting parameters from the gravitational wave searches do. PSR J1455-3330 is one of the longest-observed pulsars in the array monitored by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) but showed no evidence for long-timescale red noise, either intrinsic or the common signal found among many pulsars in the array. In this work, we argue that NANOGrav's piecewise-constant function used to model variations in radio-frequency-dependent dispersive delay should not be used for this pulsar, and a much simpler physical model of a fixed solar wind density plus a linear trend in dispersion measure is preferred. When the original model is replaced, (i) the pulsar's timing parallax signal changes from an upper limit to a significant detection, (ii) red noise becomes significant, and (iii) the red noise is consistent with the common signal found for the other pulsars. Neither of these signals are radio-frequency dependent. While the same physical motivation will not apply to many of the pulsars currently used in pulsar timing arrays, we argue for careful physically-motivated timing and noise modeling of pulsars used in precision timing experiments. △ Less

Submitted 4 June, 2025; originally announced June 2025.

Comments: 11 pages, 6 figures, submitted to ApJ

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Gravitational Wave Memory

Authors: Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Jeremy G. Baier, Paul T. Baker, Bence Becsy, Laura Blecha, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, Rand Burnette, J. Andrew Casey-Clyde, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Tyler Cohen, James M. Cordes, Neil J. Cornish, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Heling Deng, Lankeswar Dey , et al. (80 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: We present the results of a search for nonlinear gravitational wave memory in the NANOGrav 15-year data set. We find no significant evidence for memory signals in the dataset, with a maximum Bayes factor of 3.1 in favor of a model including memory. We therefore place upper limits on the strain of potential gravitational wave memory events as a function of sky location and observing epoch. We find… ▽ More We present the results of a search for nonlinear gravitational wave memory in the NANOGrav 15-year data set. We find no significant evidence for memory signals in the dataset, with a maximum Bayes factor of 3.1 in favor of a model including memory. We therefore place upper limits on the strain of potential gravitational wave memory events as a function of sky location and observing epoch. We find upper limits that are not always more constraining than previous NANOGrav results. We show that it is likely due to the increase in common red noise between the 12.5-year and 15-year NANOGrav datasets. △ Less

Submitted 28 February, 2025; v1 submitted 25 February, 2025; originally announced February 2025.

Pulse Profile Variability of PSR J1022+1001 in NANOGrav Data

Authors: William Fiore, Maura A. McLaughlin, Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Paul T. Baker, Paul R. Brook, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Lankeswar Dey, Timothy Dolch, Elizabeth C. Ferrara, Emmanuel Fonseca, Gabriel E. Freedman, Nate Garver-Daniels, Peter A. Gentile, Joseph Glaser, Deborah C. Good, Jeffrey S. Hazboun, Ross J. Jennings, Megan L. Jones, David L. Kaplan , et al. (24 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Pulse profile stability is a central assumption of standard pulsar timing methods. Thus, it is important for pulsar timing array experiments such as the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) to account for any pulse profile variability present in their data sets. We show that in the NANOGrav 15-yr data set, the integrated pulse profile of PSR J1022+1001 as seen by… ▽ More Pulse profile stability is a central assumption of standard pulsar timing methods. Thus, it is important for pulsar timing array experiments such as the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) to account for any pulse profile variability present in their data sets. We show that in the NANOGrav 15-yr data set, the integrated pulse profile of PSR J1022+1001 as seen by the Arecibo radio telescope at 430, 1380, and 2030 MHz varies considerably in its shape from observation to observation. We investigate the possibility that this is due to the "ideal feed assumption" (IFA), on which NANOGrav's routine polarization calibration procedure relies. PSR J1022+1001 is $\sim 90\%$ polarized in one pulse profile component, and also has significant levels of circular polarization. Time-dependent deviations in the feed's polarimetric response (PR) could cause mixing between the intensity I and the other Stokes parameters, leading to the observed variability. We calibrate the PR using a mixture of Measurement Equation Modeling and Measurement Equation Template Matching techniques. The resulting profiles are no less variable than those calibrated using the IFA method, nor do they provide an improvement in the timing quality of this pulsar. We observe the pulse shape in 25-MHz bandwidths to vary consistently across the band, which cannot be explained by interstellar scintillation in combination with profile evolution with frequency. Instead, we favor phenomena intrinsic to the pulsar as the cause. △ Less

Submitted 6 December, 2024; originally announced December 2024.

Comments: 18 pages, 16 figures, 4 tables. Submitted to ApJ

The NANOGrav 15 Yr Data Set: Removing Pulsars One by One from the Pulsar Timing Array

Authors: Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Jeremy G. Baier, Paul T. Baker, Bence Becsy, Laura Blecha, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, J. Andrew Casey-Clyde, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Tyler Cohen, James M. Cordes, Neil J. Cornish, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Heling Deng, Lankeswar Dey, Timothy Dolch , et al. (80 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Evidence has emerged for a stochastic signal correlated among 67 pulsars within the 15-year pulsar-timing data set compiled by the NANOGrav collaboration. Similar signals have been found in data from the European, Indian, Parkes, and Chinese PTAs. This signal has been interpreted as indicative of the presence of a nanohertz stochastic gravitational wave background. To explore the internal consiste… ▽ More Evidence has emerged for a stochastic signal correlated among 67 pulsars within the 15-year pulsar-timing data set compiled by the NANOGrav collaboration. Similar signals have been found in data from the European, Indian, Parkes, and Chinese PTAs. This signal has been interpreted as indicative of the presence of a nanohertz stochastic gravitational wave background. To explore the internal consistency of this result we investigate how the recovered signal strength changes as we remove the pulsars one by one from the data set. We calculate the signal strength using the (noise-marginalized) optimal statistic, a frequentist metric designed to measure correlated excess power in the residuals of the arrival times of the radio pulses. We identify several features emerging from this analysis that were initially unexpected. The significance of these features, however, can only be assessed by comparing the real data to synthetic data sets. After conducting identical analyses on simulated data sets, we do not find anything inconsistent with the presence of a stochastic gravitational wave background in the NANOGrav 15-year data. The methodologies developed here can offer additional tools for application to future, more sensitive data sets. While this analysis provides an internal consistency check of the NANOGrav results, it does not eliminate the necessity for additional investigations that could identify potential systematics or uncover unmodeled physical phenomena in the data. △ Less

Submitted 23 May, 2025; v1 submitted 22 November, 2024; originally announced November 2024.

Comments: 21 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Harmonic Analysis of the Pulsar Angular Correlations

Authors: Gabriella Agazie, Jeremy G. Baier, Paul T. Baker, Bence Becsy, Laura Blecha, Kimberly K. Boddy, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, Rand Burnette, J. Andrew Casey-Clyde, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Tyler Cohen, James M. Cordes, Neil J. Cornish, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Heling Deng, Lankeswar Dey, Timothy Dolch, Elizabeth C. Ferrara, William Fiore , et al. (64 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Pulsar timing array observations have found evidence for an isotropic gravitational wave background with the Hellings-Downs angular correlations, expected from general relativity. This interpretation hinges on the measured shape of the angular correlations, which is predominately quadrupolar under general relativity. Here we explore a more flexible parameterization: we expand the angular correlati… ▽ More Pulsar timing array observations have found evidence for an isotropic gravitational wave background with the Hellings-Downs angular correlations, expected from general relativity. This interpretation hinges on the measured shape of the angular correlations, which is predominately quadrupolar under general relativity. Here we explore a more flexible parameterization: we expand the angular correlations into a sum of Legendre polynomials and use a Bayesian analysis to constrain their coefficients with the 15-year pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). When including Legendre polynomials with multipoles $\ell \geq 2$, we only find a significant signal in the quadrupole with an amplitude consistent with general relativity and non-zero at the $\sim 95\%$ confidence level and a Bayes factor of 200. When we include multipoles $\ell \leq 1$, the Bayes factor evidence for quadrupole correlations decreases by more than an order of magnitude due to evidence for a monopolar signal at approximately 4 nHz which has also been noted in previous analyses of the NANOGrav 15-year data. Further work needs to be done in order to better characterize the properties of this monopolar signal and its effect on the evidence for quadrupolar angular correlations. △ Less

Submitted 20 November, 2024; originally announced November 2024.

Comments: 15 pages, 6 figures

The NANOGrav 12.5-Year Data Set: Probing Interstellar Turbulence and Precision Pulsar Timing with PSR J1903+0327

Authors: Abra Geiger, James M. Cordes, Michael T. Lam, Stella Koch Ocker, Shami Chatterjee, Zaven Arzoumanian, Ava L. Battaglia, Harsha Blumer, Paul R. Brook, Olivia A. Combs, H. Thankful Cromartie, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Timothy Dolch, Justin A. Ellis, Robert D. Ferdman, Elizabeth C. Ferrara, Emmanuel Fonseca, Nate Garver-Daniels, Peter A. Gentile, Deborah C. Good, Megan L. Jones, Duncan R. Lorimer, Jing Luo, Ryan S. Lynch , et al. (11 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Free electrons in the interstellar medium refract and diffract radio waves along multiple paths, resulting in angular and temporal broadening of radio pulses that limits pulsar timing precision. We determine multifrequency, multi-epoch scattering times for the large dispersion measure millisecond pulsar J1903+0327 by developing a three component model for the emitted pulse shape that is convolved… ▽ More Free electrons in the interstellar medium refract and diffract radio waves along multiple paths, resulting in angular and temporal broadening of radio pulses that limits pulsar timing precision. We determine multifrequency, multi-epoch scattering times for the large dispersion measure millisecond pulsar J1903+0327 by developing a three component model for the emitted pulse shape that is convolved with a best fit pulse broadening function (PBF) identified from a family of thin-screen and extended-media PBFs. We show that the scattering time, $τ$, at a fiducial frequency of 1500 MHz changes by approximately 10% over a 5.5yr span with a characteristic timescale of approximately 100 days. We also constrain the spectral index and inner scale of the wavenumber spectrum of electron density variations along this line of sight. We find that the scaling law for $τ$ vs. radio frequency is strongly affected by any mismatch between the true and assumed PBF or between the true and assumed intrinsic pulse shape. We show using simulations that refraction is a plausible cause of the epoch dependence of $τ$, manifesting as changes in the PBF shape and $1/e$ time scale. Finally, we discuss the implications of our scattering results on pulsar timing including time of arrival delays and dispersion measure misestimation. △ Less

Submitted 12 November, 2024; originally announced November 2024.

Comments: 16 pages, 14 figures, submitted to ApJ

Journal ref: 2025 ApJ 986 191

Inference on inner galaxy structure via gravitational waves from supermassive binaries

Authors: Yifan Chen, Matthias Daniel, Daniel J. D'Orazio, Xuanye Fan, Andrea Mitridate, Laura Sagunski, Xiao Xue, Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Jeremy G. Baier, Paul T. Baker, Bence Bécsy, Laura Blecha, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, Rand Burnette, J. Andrew Casey-Clyde, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Tyler Cohen, James M. Cordes, Neil J. Cornish , et al. (85 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The detection of a stochastic gravitational wave background by pulsar-timing arrays indicates the presence of a population of supermassive black hole binaries. Although the observed spectrum generally matches predictions for orbital evolution driven by gravitational-wave emission in circular orbits, there is a preference for a spectral turnover at the lowest observed frequencies, which may point t… ▽ More The detection of a stochastic gravitational wave background by pulsar-timing arrays indicates the presence of a population of supermassive black hole binaries. Although the observed spectrum generally matches predictions for orbital evolution driven by gravitational-wave emission in circular orbits, there is a preference for a spectral turnover at the lowest observed frequencies, which may point to substantial hardening during a transition from early environmental influences to later stages dominated by emission. In the vicinity of these binaries, the ejection of stars or dark matter particles through gravitational three-body slingshots efficiently extracts orbital energy, leading to a low-frequency turnover in the spectrum. Here we model how the gravitational-wave spectrum depends on the initial inner galactic profile before scouring by binary ejections while accounting for a range of initial binary eccentricities. By analysing the NANOGrav 15-year data, we find that a parsec-scale galactic-centre density of around $10^6 M_{\odot} \mathrm{pc}^{-3}$ is favoured across most of the parameter space, thus shedding light on the environmental effects that shape black hole evolution and the combined matter density near galaxy centres. △ Less

Submitted 4 February, 2026; v1 submitted 8 November, 2024; originally announced November 2024.

Comments: 19 pages, 6 figures, accepted version in Nature Astronomy

Pulsar timing methods for evaluating dispersion measure time series

Authors: F. Iraci, A. Chalumeau, C. Tiburzi, J. P. W. Verbiest, A. Possenti, G. M. Shaifullah, S. C. Susarla, M. A. Krishnakumar, M. T. Lam, H. T. Cromartie, M. Kerr, Jean-Mathias Grießmeier

Abstract: Radio pulsars allow the study of the ionised interstellar medium and its dispersive effects, a major noise source in gravitational wave searches using pulsars. In this paper, we compare the functionality and reliability of three commonly used schemes to measure temporal variations in interstellar propagation effects in pulsar-timing data. We carry out extensive simulations at low observing frequen… ▽ More Radio pulsars allow the study of the ionised interstellar medium and its dispersive effects, a major noise source in gravitational wave searches using pulsars. In this paper, we compare the functionality and reliability of three commonly used schemes to measure temporal variations in interstellar propagation effects in pulsar-timing data. We carry out extensive simulations at low observing frequencies (100-200 MHz) by injecting long-term correlated noise processes with power-law spectra and white noise, to evaluate the robustness, accuracy and precision of the following three mitigation methods: epoch-wise (EW) measurements of interstellar dispersion; the DMX method of simultaneous, piece-wise fits to interstellar dispersion; and DMGP, which models dispersion variations through Gaussian processes using a Bayesian analysis method. We then evaluate how reliably the input signals are reconstructed and how the various methods react to the presence of achromatic long-period noise. All the methods perform well, provided the achromatic long-period noise is modeled for DMX and DMGP. The most precise method is DMGP, followed by DMX and EW, while the most accurate is EW, followed by DMX and DMGP. We also test different scenarios including simulations of L-band ToAs and realistic DM injection, with no significant variation in the obtained results. Given the nature of our simulations and our scope, we deem that EW is the most reliable method to study the Galactic ionized media. Future works should be conducted to confirm this result via more realistic simulations. We note that DM GP and DMX seem to be the most performing techniques in removing long-term correlated noise, and hence for gravitational wave studies. However, full simulations of pulsar timing array experiments are needed to support this interpretation. △ Less

Submitted 29 October, 2024; originally announced October 2024.

A NICER View of PSR J1231$-$1411: A Complex Case

Authors: Tuomo Salmi, Julia S. Deneva, Paul S. Ray, Anna L. Watts, Devarshi Choudhury, Yves Kini, Serena Vinciguerra, H. Thankful Cromartie, Michael T. Wolff, Zaven Arzoumanian, Slavko Bogdanov, Keith Gendreau, Sebastien Guillot, Wynn C. G. Ho, Sharon M. Morsink, Ismaël Cognard, Lucas Guillemot, Gilles Theureau, Matthew Kerr

Abstract: Recent constraints on neutron star mass and radius have advanced our understanding of the equation of state (EOS) of cold dense matter. Some of them have been obtained by modeling the pulses of three millisecond X-ray pulsars observed by the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER). Here, we present a Bayesian parameter inference for a fourth pulsar, PSR J1231$-$1411, using the same tech… ▽ More Recent constraints on neutron star mass and radius have advanced our understanding of the equation of state (EOS) of cold dense matter. Some of them have been obtained by modeling the pulses of three millisecond X-ray pulsars observed by the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER). Here, we present a Bayesian parameter inference for a fourth pulsar, PSR J1231$-$1411, using the same technique with NICER and XMM-Newton data. When applying a broad mass-inclination prior from radio timing measurements and the emission region geometry model that can best explain the data, we find likely converged results only when using a limited radius prior. If limiting the radius to be consistent with the previous observational constraints and EOS analyses, we infer the radius to be $12.6 \pm 0.3$ km and the mass to be $1.04_{-0.03}^{+0.05}$ $M_\odot$, each reported as the posterior credible interval bounded by the $16\,\%$ and $84\,\%$ quantiles. If using an uninformative prior but limited between $10$ and $14$ km, we find otherwise similar results, but $R_{\mathrm{eq}} = 13.5_{-0.5}^{+0.3}$ km for the radius. In both cases, we find a nonantipodal hot region geometry where one emitting spot is at the equator or slightly above, surrounded by a large colder region, and where a noncircular hot region lies close to southern rotational pole. If using a wider radius prior, we only find solutions that fit the data significantly worse. We discuss the challenges in finding the better fitting solutions, possibly related to the weak interpulse feature in the pulse profile. △ Less

Submitted 20 November, 2024; v1 submitted 23 September, 2024; originally announced September 2024.

Comments: 23 pages, 13 figures (2 of which are figure sets), 3 tables, published in ApJ

Journal ref: ApJ 976 58 (2024)

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Running of the Spectral Index

Authors: Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Jeremy George Baier, Paul T. Baker, Bence Bécsy, Laura Blecha, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, J. Andrew Casey-Clyde, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Tyler Cohen, James M. Cordes, Neil J. Cornish, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Heling Deng, Lankeswar Dey, Timothy Dolch , et al. (80 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The NANOGrav 15-year data provides compelling evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background at nanohertz frequencies. The simplest model-independent approach to characterizing the frequency spectrum of this signal consists in a simple power-law fit involving two parameters: an amplitude A and a spectral index γ. In this paper, we consider the next logical step beyond this minimal sp… ▽ More The NANOGrav 15-year data provides compelling evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background at nanohertz frequencies. The simplest model-independent approach to characterizing the frequency spectrum of this signal consists in a simple power-law fit involving two parameters: an amplitude A and a spectral index γ. In this paper, we consider the next logical step beyond this minimal spectral model, allowing for a running (i.e., logarithmic frequency dependence) of the spectral index, γ_run(f) = γ+ β\ln(f/f_ref). We fit this running-power-law (RPL) model to the NANOGrav 15-year data and perform a Bayesian model comparison with the minimal constant-power-law (CPL) model, which results in a 95% credible interval for the parameter βconsistent with no running, β\in [-0.80,2.96], and an inconclusive Bayes factor, B(RPL vs. CPL) = 0.69 +- 0.01. We thus conclude that, at present, the minimal CPL model still suffices to adequately describe the NANOGrav signal; however, future data sets may well lead to a measurement of nonzero β. Finally, we interpret the RPL model as a description of primordial GWs generated during cosmic inflation, which allows us to combine our results with upper limits from big-bang nucleosynthesis, the cosmic microwave background, and LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA. △ Less

Submitted 30 January, 2025; v1 submitted 19 August, 2024; originally announced August 2024.

Comments: 18 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables. v2: matches version published in ApJ Letters

Journal ref: Astrophys. J. Lett. 978 (2025) 2, L29

The NANOGrav 15 yr data set: Posterior predictive checks for gravitational-wave detection with pulsar timing arrays

Authors: Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Jeremy George Baier, Paul T. Baker, Bence Bécsy, Laura Blecha, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, J. Andrew Casey-Clyde, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Katerina Chatziioannou, Tyler Cohen, James M. Cordes, Neil J. Cornish, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Heling Deng, Lankeswar Dey , et al. (77 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Pulsar-timing-array experiments have reported evidence for a stochastic background of nanohertz gravitational waves consistent with the signal expected from a population of supermassive--black-hole binaries. Their analyses assume power-law spectra for intrinsic pulsar noise and for the background, as well as a Hellings--Downs cross-correlation pattern among the gravitational-wave--induced residual… ▽ More Pulsar-timing-array experiments have reported evidence for a stochastic background of nanohertz gravitational waves consistent with the signal expected from a population of supermassive--black-hole binaries. Their analyses assume power-law spectra for intrinsic pulsar noise and for the background, as well as a Hellings--Downs cross-correlation pattern among the gravitational-wave--induced residuals across pulsars. These assumptions may not be realized in actuality. We test them in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set using Bayesian posterior predictive checks. After fitting our fiducial model to real data, we generate a population of simulated data-set replications. We use the replications to assess whether the optimal-statistic significance, inter-pulsar correlations, and spectral coefficients are extreme. We recover Hellings--Downs correlations in simulated data sets at significance levels consistent with the correlations measured in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set. A similar test on spectral coefficients shows that their values in real data are not extreme compared to their distributions across replications. We also evaluate the evidence for the stochastic background using posterior-predictive versions of the frequentist optimal statistic and of Bayesian model comparison, and find comparable significance (3.2 $σ$ and 3 $σ$ respectively) to what was previously reported for the standard statistics. We conclude with novel visualizations of the reconstructed gravitational waveforms that enter the residuals for each pulsar. Our analysis strengthens confidence in the identification and characterization of the gravitational-wave background. △ Less

Submitted 13 March, 2025; v1 submitted 29 July, 2024; originally announced July 2024.

Comments: 20 pages, 14 Figures, accepted to PRD

Neutron stars and the dense matter equation of state: from microscopic theory to macroscopic observations

Authors: Katerina Chatziioannou, H. Thankful Cromartie, Stefano Gandolfi, Ingo Tews, David Radice, Andrew W. Steiner, Anna L. Watts

Abstract: The past years have witnessed tremendous progress in understanding the properties of neutron stars and of the dense matter in their cores, made possible by electromagnetic observations of neutron stars and the detection of gravitational waves from their mergers. These observations provided novel constraints on neutron-star structure, that is intimately related to the properties of dense neutron-ri… ▽ More The past years have witnessed tremendous progress in understanding the properties of neutron stars and of the dense matter in their cores, made possible by electromagnetic observations of neutron stars and the detection of gravitational waves from their mergers. These observations provided novel constraints on neutron-star structure, that is intimately related to the properties of dense neutron-rich matter described by the nuclear equation of state. Nevertheless, constraining the equation of state over the wide range of densities probed by astrophysical observations is still challenging, as the physics involved is very broad and the system spans many orders of magnitude in densities. Here, we review theoretical approaches to calculate and model the neutron-star equation of state in various regimes of densities, and discuss the related consequent properties of neutron stars. We describe how the equation of state can be calculated from nuclear interactions that are constrained and benchmarked by nuclear experiments. We review neutron-star observations, with particular emphasis on information provided by gravitational-wave signals and electromagnetic observations. Finally, we discuss future challenges and opportunities in the field. △ Less

Submitted 15 July, 2024; originally announced July 2024.

Comments: 55 pages, 26 figures

Report number: LA-UR-23-22545

Journal ref: Rev. Mod. Phys. 97, 045007 (2025)

The Anomalous Acceleration of PSR J2043+1711: Long-Period Orbital Companion or Stellar Flyby?

Authors: Thomas Donlon II, Sukanya Chakrabarti, Michael T. Lam, Daniel Huber, Daniel Hey, Enrico Ramirez-Ruiz, Benjamin Shappee, David L. Kaplan, Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Paul T. Baker, Paul R. Brook, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Timothy Dolch, Elizabeth C. Ferrara, William Fiore, Emmanuel Fonseca, Gabriel E. Freedman, Nate Garver-Daniels, Peter A. Gentile , et al. (31 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Based on the rate of change of its orbital period, PSR J2043+1711 has a substantial peculiar acceleration of 3.5 $\pm$ 0.8 mm/s/yr, which deviates from the acceleration predicted by equilibrium Milky Way models at a $4σ$ level. The magnitude of the peculiar acceleration is too large to be explained by disequilibrium effects of the Milky Way interacting with orbiting dwarf galaxies ($\sim$1 mm/s/yr… ▽ More Based on the rate of change of its orbital period, PSR J2043+1711 has a substantial peculiar acceleration of 3.5 $\pm$ 0.8 mm/s/yr, which deviates from the acceleration predicted by equilibrium Milky Way models at a $4σ$ level. The magnitude of the peculiar acceleration is too large to be explained by disequilibrium effects of the Milky Way interacting with orbiting dwarf galaxies ($\sim$1 mm/s/yr), and too small to be caused by period variations due to the pulsar being a redback. We identify and examine two plausible causes for the anomalous acceleration: a stellar flyby, and a long-period orbital companion. We identify a main-sequence star in \textit{Gaia} DR3 and Pan-STARRS DR2 with the correct mass, distance, and on-sky position to potentially explain the observed peculiar acceleration. However, the star and the pulsar system have substantially different proper motions, indicating that they are not gravitationally bound. However, it is possible that this is an unrelated star that just happens to be located near J2043+1711 along our line of sight (chance probability of 1.6\%). Therefore, we also constrain possible orbital parameters for a circumbinary companion in a hierarchical triple system with J2043+1711; the changes in the spindown rate of the pulsar are consistent with an outer object that has an orbital period of 80 kyr, a companion mass of 0.3 $M_\odot$ (indicative of a white dwarf or low-mass star), and a semi-major axis of 2000 AU. Continued timing and/or future faint optical observations of J2043+1711 may eventually allow us to differentiate between these scenarios. △ Less

Submitted 19 March, 2025; v1 submitted 8 July, 2024; originally announced July 2024.

Exploring pulsar timing precision: A comparative study of polarization calibration methods for NANOGrav data from the Green Bank Telescope

Authors: Lankeswar Dey, Maura A. McLaughlin, Haley M. Wahl, Paul B. Demorest, Zaven Arzoumanian, Harsha Blumer, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, H. Thankful Cromartie, Megan E. DeCesar, Timothy Dolch, Justin A. Ellis, Robert D. Ferdman, Elizabeth C. Ferrara, William Fiore, Emmanuel Fonseca, Nate Garver-Daniels, Peter A. Gentile, Joseph Glaser, Deborah C. Good, Ross J. Jennings, Megan L. Jones, Michael T. Lam, Duncan R. Lorimer, Jing Luo , et al. (10 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Pulsar timing array experiments have recently uncovered evidence for a nanohertz gravitational wave background by precisely timing an ensemble of millisecond pulsars. The next significant milestones for these experiments include characterizing the detected background with greater precision, identifying its source(s), and detecting continuous gravitational waves from individual supermassive black h… ▽ More Pulsar timing array experiments have recently uncovered evidence for a nanohertz gravitational wave background by precisely timing an ensemble of millisecond pulsars. The next significant milestones for these experiments include characterizing the detected background with greater precision, identifying its source(s), and detecting continuous gravitational waves from individual supermassive black hole binaries. To achieve these objectives, generating accurate and precise times of arrival of pulses from pulsar observations is crucial. Incorrect polarization calibration of the observed pulsar profiles may introduce errors in the measured times of arrival. Further, previous studies (e.g., van Straten 2013; Manchester et al. 2013) have demonstrated that robust polarization calibration of pulsar profiles can reduce noise in the pulsar timing data and improve timing solutions. In this paper, we investigate and compare the impact of different polarization calibration methods on pulsar timing precision using three distinct calibration techniques: the Ideal Feed Assumption (IFA), Measurement Equation Modeling (MEM), and Measurement Equation Template Matching (METM). Three NANOGrav pulsars-PSRs J1643$-$1224, J1744$-$1134, and J1909$-$3744-observed with the 800 MHz and 1.5 GHz receivers at the Green Bank Telescope (GBT) are utilized for our analysis. Our findings reveal that all three calibration methods enhance timing precision compared to scenarios where no polarization calibration is performed. Additionally, among the three calibration methods, the IFA approach generally provides the best results for timing analysis of pulsars observed with the GBT receiver system. We attribute the comparatively poorer performance of the MEM and METM methods to potential instabilities in the reference noise diode coupled to the receiver and temporal variations in the profile of the reference pulsar, respectively. △ Less

Submitted 28 October, 2024; v1 submitted 19 June, 2024; originally announced June 2024.

Comments: 21 pages, 6 figures, 1 table, Accepted for Publication in Astrophysical Journal

Journal ref: Astrophysical Journal, 2024

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Chromatic Gaussian Process Noise Models for Six Pulsars

Authors: Bjorn Larsen, Chiara M. F. Mingarelli, Jeffrey S. Hazboun, Aurelien Chalumeau, Deborah C. Good, Joseph Simon, Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Paul T. Baker, Paul R. Brook, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Timothy Dolch, Elizabeth C. Ferrara, William Fiore, Emmanuel Fonseca, Gabriel E. Freedman, Nate Garver-Daniels, Peter A. Gentile, Joseph Glaser, Ross J. Jennings , et al. (39 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are designed to detect low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs). GWs induce achromatic signals in PTA data, meaning that the timing delays do not depend on radio-frequency. However, pulse arrival times are also affected by radio-frequency dependent "chromatic" noise from sources such as dispersion measure (DM) and scattering delay variations. Furthermore, the characteriz… ▽ More Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are designed to detect low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs). GWs induce achromatic signals in PTA data, meaning that the timing delays do not depend on radio-frequency. However, pulse arrival times are also affected by radio-frequency dependent "chromatic" noise from sources such as dispersion measure (DM) and scattering delay variations. Furthermore, the characterization of GW signals may be influenced by the choice of chromatic noise model for each pulsar. To better understand this effect, we assess if and how different chromatic noise models affect achromatic noise properties in each pulsar. The models we compare include existing DM models used by NANOGrav and noise models used for the European PTA Data Release 2 (EPTA DR2). We perform this comparison using a subsample of six pulsars from the NANOGrav 15 yr data set, selecting the same six pulsars as from the EPTA DR2 six-pulsar dataset. We find that the choice of chromatic noise model noticeably affects the achromatic noise properties of several pulsars. This is most dramatic for PSR J1713+0747, where the amplitude of its achromatic red noise lowers from $\log_{10}A_{\text{RN}} = -14.1^{+0.1}_{-0.1}$ to $-14.7^{+0.3}_{-0.5}$, and the spectral index broadens from $γ_{\text{RN}} = 2.6^{+0.5}_{-0.4}$ to $γ_{\text{RN}} = 3.5^{+1.2}_{-0.9}$. We also compare each pulsar's noise properties with those inferred from the EPTA DR2, using the same models. From the discrepancies, we identify potential areas where the noise models could be improved. These results highlight the potential for custom chromatic noise models to improve PTA sensitivity to GWs. △ Less

Submitted 23 May, 2024; originally announced May 2024.

PINT: Maximum-likelihood estimation of pulsar timing noise parameters

Authors: Abhimanyu Susobhanan, David Kaplan, Anne Archibald, Jing Luo, Paul Ray, Timothy Pennucci, Scott Ransom, Gabriella Agazie, William Fiore, Bjorn Larsen, Patrick O'Neill, Rutger van Haasteren, Akash Anumarlapudi, Matteo Bachetti, Deven Bhakta, Chloe Champagne, H. Thankful Cromartie, Paul Demorest, Ross Jennings, Matthew Kerr, Sasha Levina, Alexander McEwen, Brent Shapiro-Albert, Joseph Swiggum

Abstract: PINT is a pure-Python framework for high-precision pulsar timing developed on top of widely used and well-tested Python libraries, supporting both interactive and programmatic data analysis workflows. We present a new frequentist framework within PINT to characterize the single-pulsar noise processes present in pulsar timing datasets. This framework enables the parameter estimation for both uncorr… ▽ More PINT is a pure-Python framework for high-precision pulsar timing developed on top of widely used and well-tested Python libraries, supporting both interactive and programmatic data analysis workflows. We present a new frequentist framework within PINT to characterize the single-pulsar noise processes present in pulsar timing datasets. This framework enables the parameter estimation for both uncorrelated and correlated noise processes as well as the model comparison between different timing and noise models in a computationally inexpensive way. We demonstrate the efficacy of the new framework by applying it to simulated datasets as well as a real dataset of PSR B1855+09. We also describe the new features implemented in PINT since it was first described in the literature. △ Less

Submitted 19 June, 2024; v1 submitted 3 May, 2024; originally announced May 2024.

Comments: Accepted for publication in ApJ

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Looking for Signs of Discreteness in the Gravitational-wave Background

Authors: Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Jeremy George Baier, Paul T. Baker, Bence Bécsy, Laura Blecha, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Lucas Brown, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, J. Andrew Casey-Clyde, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Tyler Cohen, James M. Cordes, Neil J. Cornish, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Heling Deng, Timothy Dolch , et al. (75 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The cosmic merger history of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) is expected to produce a low-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB). Here we investigate how signs of the discrete nature of this GWB can manifest in pulsar timing arrays through excursions from, and breaks in, the expected $f_{\mathrm{GW}}^{-2/3}$ power-law of the GWB strain spectrum. To do this, we create a semi-analyt… ▽ More The cosmic merger history of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) is expected to produce a low-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB). Here we investigate how signs of the discrete nature of this GWB can manifest in pulsar timing arrays through excursions from, and breaks in, the expected $f_{\mathrm{GW}}^{-2/3}$ power-law of the GWB strain spectrum. To do this, we create a semi-analytic SMBHB population model, fit to NANOGrav's 15 yr GWB amplitude, and with 1,000 realizations we study the populations' characteristic strain and residual spectra. Comparing our models to the NANOGrav 15 yr spectrum, we find two interesting excursions from the power-law. The first, at $2 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is below our GWB realizations with $p$-value significance $p = 0.05$ to $0.06$ ($\approx 1.8 σ- 1.9 σ$). The second, at $16 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is above our GWB realizations with $p = 0.04$ to $0.15$ ($\approx 1.4 σ- 2.1 σ$). We explore the properties of a loud SMBHB which could cause such an excursion. Our simulations also show that the expected number of SMBHBs decreases by three orders of magnitude, from $\sim 10^6$ to $\sim 10^3$, between $2\; \mathrm{nHz}$ and $20 \; \mathrm{nHz}$. This causes a break in the strain spectrum as the stochasticity of the background breaks down at $26^{+28}_{-19} \; \mathrm{nHz}$, consistent with predictions pre-dating GWB measurements. The diminished GWB signal from SMBHBs at frequencies above the $26~\mathrm{nHz}$ break opens a window for PTAs to detect continuous GWs from individual SMBHBs or GWs from the early universe. △ Less

Submitted 19 November, 2024; v1 submitted 10 April, 2024; originally announced April 2024.

Comments: 13 pages, 8 figures, 2 appendices, in press at ApJ

Journal ref: The Astrophysical Journal, Volume 978, Number 1 (2024)

The NANOGrav 15-year data set: Search for Transverse Polarization Modes in the Gravitational-Wave Background

Authors: Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Jeremy Baier, Paul T. Baker, Bence Bécsy, Laura Blecha, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, Rand Burnette, Robin Case, J. Andrew Casey-Clyde, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Tyler Cohen, James M. Cordes, Neil J. Cornish, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Megan E. DeCesar, Dallas DeGan, Paul B. Demorest , et al. (74 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Recently we found compelling evidence for a gravitational wave background with Hellings and Downs (HD) correlations in our 15-year data set. These correlations describe gravitational waves as predicted by general relativity, which has two transverse polarization modes. However, more general metric theories of gravity can have additional polarization modes which produce different interpulsar correl… ▽ More Recently we found compelling evidence for a gravitational wave background with Hellings and Downs (HD) correlations in our 15-year data set. These correlations describe gravitational waves as predicted by general relativity, which has two transverse polarization modes. However, more general metric theories of gravity can have additional polarization modes which produce different interpulsar correlations. In this work we search the NANOGrav 15-year data set for evidence of a gravitational wave background with quadrupolar Hellings and Downs (HD) and Scalar Transverse (ST) correlations. We find that HD correlations are the best fit to the data, and no significant evidence in favor of ST correlations. While Bayes factors show strong evidence for a correlated signal, the data does not strongly prefer either correlation signature, with Bayes factors $\sim 2$ when comparing HD to ST correlations, and $\sim 1$ for HD plus ST correlations to HD correlations alone. However, when modeled alongside HD correlations, the amplitude and spectral index posteriors for ST correlations are uninformative, with the HD process accounting for the vast majority of the total signal. Using the optimal statistic, a frequentist technique that focuses on the pulsar-pair cross-correlations, we find median signal-to-noise-ratios of 5.0 for HD and 4.6 for ST correlations when fit for separately, and median signal-to-noise-ratios of 3.5 for HD and 3.0 for ST correlations when fit for simultaneously. While the signal-to-noise-ratios for each of the correlations are comparable, the estimated amplitude and spectral index for HD are a significantly better fit to the total signal, in agreement with our Bayesian analysis. △ Less

Submitted 18 October, 2023; originally announced October 2023.

Comments: 11 pages, 5 figures

The NANOGrav 12.5-year data set: A computationally efficient eccentric binary search pipeline and constraints on an eccentric supermassive binary candidate in 3C 66B

Authors: Gabriella Agazie, Zaven Arzoumanian, Paul T. Baker, Bence Bécsy, Laura Blecha, Harsha Blumer, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, J. Andrew Casey-Clyde, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Belinda D. Cheeseboro, Tyler Cohen, James M. Cordes, Neil J. Cornish, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Lankeswar Dey, Timothy Dolch, Justin A. Ellis, Robert D. Ferdman, Elizabeth C. Ferrara , et al. (63 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The radio galaxy 3C 66B has been hypothesized to host a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) at its center based on electromagnetic observations. Its apparent 1.05-year period and low redshift ($\sim0.02$) make it an interesting testbed to search for low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) using Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) experiments. This source has been subjected to multiple searches for contin… ▽ More The radio galaxy 3C 66B has been hypothesized to host a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) at its center based on electromagnetic observations. Its apparent 1.05-year period and low redshift ($\sim0.02$) make it an interesting testbed to search for low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) using Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) experiments. This source has been subjected to multiple searches for continuous GWs from a circular SMBHB, resulting in progressively more stringent constraints on its GW amplitude and chirp mass. In this paper, we develop a pipeline for performing Bayesian targeted searches for eccentric SMBHBs in PTA data sets, and test its efficacy by applying it on simulated data sets with varying injected signal strengths. We also search for a realistic eccentric SMBHB source in 3C 66B using the NANOGrav 12.5-year data set employing PTA signal models containing Earth term-only as well as Earth+Pulsar term contributions using this pipeline. Due to limitations in our PTA signal model, we get meaningful results only when the initial eccentricity $e_0<0.5$ and the symmetric mass ratio $η>0.1$. We find no evidence for an eccentric SMBHB signal in our data, and therefore place 95% upper limits on the PTA signal amplitude of $88.1\pm3.7$ ns for the Earth term-only and $81.74\pm0.86$ ns for the Earth+Pulsar term searches for $e_0<0.5$ and $η>0.1$. Similar 95% upper limits on the chirp mass are $(1.98 \pm 0.05) \times 10^9\,M_{\odot}$ and $(1.81 \pm 0.01) \times 10^9\,M_{\odot}$. These upper limits, while less stringent than those calculated from a circular binary search in the NANOGrav 12.5-year data set, are consistent with the SMBHB model of 3C 66B developed from electromagnetic observations. △ Less

Submitted 15 January, 2024; v1 submitted 29 September, 2023; originally announced September 2023.

Comments: 27 Pages, 10 Figures, 1 Table, Accepted for publication in ApJ

Journal ref: Astrophysical Journal, 2024

How to Detect an Astrophysical Nanohertz Gravitational-Wave Background

Authors: Bence Bécsy, Neil J. Cornish, Patrick M. Meyers, Luke Zoltan Kelley, Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Paul T. Baker, Laura Blecha, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, J. Andrew Casey-Clyde, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Katerina Chatziioannou, Tyler Cohen, James M. Cordes, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Timothy Dolch , et al. (71 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Analysis of pulsar timing data have provided evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave background in the nHz frequency band. The most plausible source of such a background is the superposition of signals from millions of supermassive black hole binaries. The standard statistical techniques used to search for such a background and assess its significance make several simplifying assumptions, nam… ▽ More Analysis of pulsar timing data have provided evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave background in the nHz frequency band. The most plausible source of such a background is the superposition of signals from millions of supermassive black hole binaries. The standard statistical techniques used to search for such a background and assess its significance make several simplifying assumptions, namely: i) Gaussianity; ii) isotropy; and most often iii) a power-law spectrum. However, a stochastic background from a finite collection of binaries does not exactly satisfy any of these assumptions. To understand the effect of these assumptions, we test standard analysis techniques on a large collection of realistic simulated datasets. The dataset length, observing schedule, and noise levels were chosen to emulate the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. Simulated signals from millions of binaries drawn from models based on the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamical simulation were added to the data. We find that the standard statistical methods perform remarkably well on these simulated datasets, despite their fundamental assumptions not being strictly met. They are able to achieve a confident detection of the background. However, even for a fixed set of astrophysical parameters, different realizations of the universe result in a large variance in the significance and recovered parameters of the background. We also find that the presence of loud individual binaries can bias the spectral recovery of the background if we do not account for them. △ Less

Submitted 1 December, 2023; v1 submitted 8 September, 2023; originally announced September 2023.

Comments: 14 pages, 8 figures, version matching published paper

Journal ref: ApJ 959 9 (2023)

Comparing recent PTA results on the nanohertz stochastic gravitational wave background

Authors: The International Pulsar Timing Array Collaboration, G. Agazie, J. Antoniadis, A. Anumarlapudi, A. M. Archibald, P. Arumugam, S. Arumugam, Z. Arzoumanian, J. Askew, S. Babak, M. Bagchi, M. Bailes, A. -S. Bak Nielsen, P. T. Baker, C. G. Bassa, A. Bathula, B. Bécsy, A. Berthereau, N. D. R. Bhat, L. Blecha, M. Bonetti, E. Bortolas, A. Brazier, P. R. Brook, M. Burgay , et al. (220 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The Australian, Chinese, European, Indian, and North American pulsar timing array (PTA) collaborations recently reported, at varying levels, evidence for the presence of a nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB). Given that each PTA made different choices in modeling their data, we perform a comparison of the GWB and individual pulsar noise parameters across the results reported from the PTA… ▽ More The Australian, Chinese, European, Indian, and North American pulsar timing array (PTA) collaborations recently reported, at varying levels, evidence for the presence of a nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB). Given that each PTA made different choices in modeling their data, we perform a comparison of the GWB and individual pulsar noise parameters across the results reported from the PTAs that constitute the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA). We show that despite making different modeling choices, there is no significant difference in the GWB parameters that are measured by the different PTAs, agreeing within $1σ$. The pulsar noise parameters are also consistent between different PTAs for the majority of the pulsars included in these analyses. We bridge the differences in modeling choices by adopting a standardized noise model for all pulsars and PTAs, finding that under this model there is a reduction in the tension in the pulsar noise parameters. As part of this reanalysis, we "extended" each PTA's data set by adding extra pulsars that were not timed by that PTA. Under these extensions, we find better constraints on the GWB amplitude and a higher signal-to-noise ratio for the Hellings and Downs correlations. These extensions serve as a prelude to the benefits offered by a full combination of data across all pulsars in the IPTA, i.e., the IPTA's Data Release 3, which will involve not just adding in additional pulsars, but also including data from all three PTAs where any given pulsar is timed by more than as single PTA. △ Less

Submitted 1 September, 2023; originally announced September 2023.

Comments: 21 pages, 9 figures, submitted to ApJ

The NANOGrav 12.5-year Data Set: Search for Gravitational Wave Memory

Authors: Gabriella Agazie, Zaven Arzoumanian, Paul T. Baker, Bence Bécsy, Laura Blecha, Harsha Blumer, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, Rand Burnette, Robin Case, J. Andrew Casey-Clyde, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Tyler Cohen, James M. Cordes, Neil J. Cornish, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie, Megan E. DeCesar, Dallas DeGan, Paul B. Demorest, Timothy Dolch, Brendan Drachler, Justin A. Ellis , et al. (65 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: We present the results of a Bayesian search for gravitational wave (GW) memory in the NANOGrav 12.5-yr data set. We find no convincing evidence for any gravitational wave memory signals in this data set (Bayes factor = 2.8). As such, we go on to place upper limits on the strain amplitude of GW memory events as a function of sky location and event epoch. These upper limits are computed using a sign… ▽ More We present the results of a Bayesian search for gravitational wave (GW) memory in the NANOGrav 12.5-yr data set. We find no convincing evidence for any gravitational wave memory signals in this data set (Bayes factor = 2.8). As such, we go on to place upper limits on the strain amplitude of GW memory events as a function of sky location and event epoch. These upper limits are computed using a signal model that assumes the existence of a common, spatially uncorrelated red noise in addition to a GW memory signal. The median strain upper limit as a function of sky position is approximately $3.3 \times 10^{-14}$. We also find that there are some differences in the upper limits as a function of sky position centered around PSR J0613$-$0200. This suggests that this pulsar has some excess noise which can be confounded with GW memory. Finally, the upper limits as a function of burst epoch continue to improve at later epochs. This improvement is attributable to the continued growth of the pulsar timing array. △ Less

Submitted 25 July, 2023; originally announced July 2023.

Comments: 29 pages, 5 figures

The NANOGrav 12.5-Year Data Set: Dispersion Measure Mis-Estimation with Varying Bandwidths

Authors: Sofia Valentina Sosa Fiscella, Michael T. Lam, Zaven Arzoumanian, Harsha Blumer, Paul R. Brook, H. Thankful Cromartie, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Timothy Dolch, Justin A. Ellis, Robert D. Ferdman, Elizabeth C. Ferrara, Emmanuel Fonseca, Nate Garver-Daniels, Peter A. Gentile, Deborah C. Good, Megan L. Jones, Duncan R. Lorimer, Jing Luo, Ryan S. Lynch, Maura A. McLaughlin, Cherry Ng, David J. Nice, Timothy T. Pennucci, Nihan S. Pol , et al. (6 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Noise characterization for pulsar-timing applications accounts for interstellar dispersion by assuming a known frequency-dependence of the delay it introduces in the times of arrival (TOAs). However, calculations of this delay suffer from mis-estimations due to other chromatic effects in the observations. The precision in modeling dispersion is dependent on the observed bandwidth. In this work, we… ▽ More Noise characterization for pulsar-timing applications accounts for interstellar dispersion by assuming a known frequency-dependence of the delay it introduces in the times of arrival (TOAs). However, calculations of this delay suffer from mis-estimations due to other chromatic effects in the observations. The precision in modeling dispersion is dependent on the observed bandwidth. In this work, we calculate the offsets in infinite-frequency TOAs due to mis-estimations in the modeling of dispersion when using varying bandwidths at the Green Bank Telescope. We use a set of broadband observations of PSR J1643-1224, a pulsar with an excess of chromatic noise in its timing residuals. We artificially restricted these observations to a narrowband frequency range, then used both data sets to calculate residuals with a timing model that does not include short-scale dispersion variations. By fitting the resulting residuals to a dispersion model, and comparing the ensuing fitted parameters, we quantify the dispersion mis-estimations. Moreover, by calculating the autocovariance function of the parameters we obtained a characteristic timescale over which the dispersion mis-estimations are correlated. For PSR J1643-1224, which has one of the highest dispersion measures (DM) in the NANOGrav pulsar timing array, we find that the infinite-frequency TOAs suffer from a systematic offset of ~22 microseconds due to DM mis-estimations, with correlations over ~1 month. For lower-DM pulsars, the offset is ~7 microseconds. This error quantification can be used to provide more robust noise modeling in NANOGrav's data, thereby increasing sensitivity and improving parameter estimation in gravitational wave searches. △ Less

Submitted 30 July, 2023; v1 submitted 25 July, 2023; originally announced July 2023.

The NANOGrav 15-year Gravitational-Wave Background Methods

Authors: Aaron D. Johnson, Patrick M. Meyers, Paul T. Baker, Neil J. Cornish, Jeffrey S. Hazboun, Tyson B. Littenberg, Joseph D. Romano, Stephen R. Taylor, Michele Vallisneri, Sarah J. Vigeland, Ken D. Olum, Xavier Siemens, Justin A. Ellis, Rutger van Haasteren, Sophie Hourihane, Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Laura Blecha, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, Bence Bécsy, J. Andrew Casey-Clyde , et al. (71 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) use an array of millisecond pulsars to search for gravitational waves in the nanohertz regime in pulse time of arrival data. This paper presents rigorous tests of PTA methods, examining their consistency across the relevant parameter space. We discuss updates to the 15-year isotropic gravitational-wave background analyses and their corresponding code representations. De… ▽ More Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) use an array of millisecond pulsars to search for gravitational waves in the nanohertz regime in pulse time of arrival data. This paper presents rigorous tests of PTA methods, examining their consistency across the relevant parameter space. We discuss updates to the 15-year isotropic gravitational-wave background analyses and their corresponding code representations. Descriptions of the internal structure of the flagship algorithms Enterprise and PTMCMCSampler are given to facilitate understanding of the PTA likelihood structure, how models are built, and what methods are currently used in sampling the high-dimensional PTA parameter space. We introduce a novel version of the PTA likelihood that uses a two-step marginalization procedure that performs much faster in gravitational wave searches, reducing the required resources facilitating the computation of Bayes factors via thermodynamic integration and sampling a large number of realizations for computing Bayesian false-alarm probabilities. We perform stringent tests of consistency and correctness of the Bayesian and frequentist analysis methods. For the Bayesian analysis, we test prior recovery, simulation recovery, and Bayes factors. For the frequentist analysis, we test that the optimal statistic, when modified to account for a non-negligible gravitational-wave background, accurately recovers the amplitude of the background. We also summarize recent advances and tests performed on the optimal statistic in the literature from both GWB detection and parameter estimation perspectives. The tests presented here validate current analyses of PTA data. △ Less

Submitted 12 May, 2025; v1 submitted 28 June, 2023; originally announced June 2023.

Comments: 30 pages, 10 figures, 1 table; Companion paper to "The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Evidence for a Gravitational-Wave Background"; For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org; updated to journal version

Journal ref: Phys. Rev. D 109, 103012 (2024)

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Bayesian Limits on Gravitational Waves from Individual Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

Authors: Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Paul T. Baker, Bence Bécsy, Laura Blecha, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, Robin Case, J. Andrew Casey-Clyde, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Tyler Cohen, James M. Cordes, Neil Cornish, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Megan DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Matthew C. Digman, Timothy Dolch, Brendan Drachler , et al. (74 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Evidence for a low-frequency stochastic gravitational wave background has recently been reported based on analyses of pulsar timing array data. The most likely source of such a background is a population of supermassive black hole binaries, the loudest of which may be individually detected in these datasets. Here we present the search for individual supermassive black hole binaries in the NANOGrav… ▽ More Evidence for a low-frequency stochastic gravitational wave background has recently been reported based on analyses of pulsar timing array data. The most likely source of such a background is a population of supermassive black hole binaries, the loudest of which may be individually detected in these datasets. Here we present the search for individual supermassive black hole binaries in the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. We introduce several new techniques, which enhance the efficiency and modeling accuracy of the analysis. The search uncovered weak evidence for two candidate signals, one with a gravitational-wave frequency of $\sim$4 nHz, and another at $\sim$170 nHz. The significance of the low-frequency candidate was greatly diminished when Hellings-Downs correlations were included in the background model. The high-frequency candidate was discounted due to the lack of a plausible host galaxy, the unlikely astrophysical prior odds of finding such a source, and since most of its support comes from a single pulsar with a commensurate binary period. Finding no compelling evidence for signals from individual binary systems, we place upper limits on the strain amplitude of gravitational waves emitted by such systems. △ Less

Submitted 28 June, 2023; originally announced June 2023.

Comments: 23 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables. Accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Anisotropy in the Gravitational-Wave Background

Authors: Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Paul T. Baker, Bence Bécsy, Laura Blecha, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, J. Andrew Casey-Clyde, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Tyler Cohen, James M. Cordes, Neil J. Cornish, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Timothy Dolch, Brendan Drachler, Elizabeth C. Ferrara, William Fiore , et al. (68 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) has reported evidence for the presence of an isotropic nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB) in its 15 yr dataset. However, if the GWB is produced by a population of inspiraling supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) systems, then the background is predicted to be anisotropic, depending on the distribution of these… ▽ More The North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) has reported evidence for the presence of an isotropic nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB) in its 15 yr dataset. However, if the GWB is produced by a population of inspiraling supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) systems, then the background is predicted to be anisotropic, depending on the distribution of these systems in the local Universe and the statistical properties of the SMBHB population. In this work, we search for anisotropy in the GWB using multiple methods and bases to describe the distribution of the GWB power on the sky. We do not find significant evidence of anisotropy, and place a Bayesian $95\%$ upper limit on the level of broadband anisotropy such that $(C_{l>0} / C_{l=0}) < 20\%$. We also derive conservative estimates on the anisotropy expected from a random distribution of SMBHB systems using astrophysical simulations conditioned on the isotropic GWB inferred in the 15-yr dataset, and show that this dataset has sufficient sensitivity to probe a large fraction of the predicted level of anisotropy. We end by highlighting the opportunities and challenges in searching for anisotropy in pulsar timing array data. △ Less

Submitted 28 June, 2023; originally announced June 2023.

Comments: 19 pages, 11 figures; submitted to Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Constraints on Supermassive Black Hole Binaries from the Gravitational Wave Background

Authors: Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Paul T. Baker, Bence Bécsy, Laura Blecha, Alexander Bonilla, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, Rand Burnette, Robin Case, J. Andrew Casey-Clyde, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Katerina Chatziioannou, Belinda D. Cheeseboro, Siyuan Chen, Tyler Cohen, James M. Cordes, Neil J. Cornish, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Curt J. Cutler , et al. (89 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The NANOGrav 15-year data set shows evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave background (GWB). While many physical processes can source such low-frequency gravitational waves, here we analyze the signal as coming from a population of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries distributed throughout the Universe. We show that astrophysically motivated models of SMBH binary popul… ▽ More The NANOGrav 15-year data set shows evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave background (GWB). While many physical processes can source such low-frequency gravitational waves, here we analyze the signal as coming from a population of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries distributed throughout the Universe. We show that astrophysically motivated models of SMBH binary populations are able to reproduce both the amplitude and shape of the observed low-frequency gravitational-wave spectrum. While multiple model variations are able to reproduce the GWB spectrum at our current measurement precision, our results highlight the importance of accurately modeling binary evolution for producing realistic GWB spectra. Additionally, while reasonable parameters are able to reproduce the 15-year observations, the implied GWB amplitude necessitates either a large number of parameters to be at the edges of expected values, or a small number of parameters to be notably different from standard expectations. While we are not yet able to definitively establish the origin of the inferred GWB signal, the consistency of the signal with astrophysical expectations offers a tantalizing prospect for confirming that SMBH binaries are able to form, reach sub-parsec separations, and eventually coalesce. As the significance grows over time, higher-order features of the GWB spectrum will definitively determine the nature of the GWB and allow for novel constraints on SMBH populations. △ Less

Submitted 18 July, 2023; v1 submitted 28 June, 2023; originally announced June 2023.

Comments: Accepted by Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org. Edited to fix two equation typos (Eq.13 & 21), and minor text typos

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Signals from New Physics

Authors: Adeela Afzal, Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Paul T. Baker, Bence Bécsy, Jose Juan Blanco-Pillado, Laura Blecha, Kimberly K. Boddy, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, Rand Burnette, Robin Case, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Katerina Chatziioannou, Belinda D. Cheeseboro, Siyuan Chen, Tyler Cohen, James M. Cordes, Neil J. Cornish, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie , et al. (98 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The 15-year pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) shows positive evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave (GW) background. In this paper, we investigate potential cosmological interpretations of this signal, specifically cosmic inflation, scalar-induced GWs, first-order phase transitions, cosmic string… ▽ More The 15-year pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) shows positive evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave (GW) background. In this paper, we investigate potential cosmological interpretations of this signal, specifically cosmic inflation, scalar-induced GWs, first-order phase transitions, cosmic strings, and domain walls. We find that, with the exception of stable cosmic strings of field theory origin, all these models can reproduce the observed signal. When compared to the standard interpretation in terms of inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), many cosmological models seem to provide a better fit resulting in Bayes factors in the range from 10 to 100. However, these results strongly depend on modeling assumptions about the cosmic SMBHB population and, at this stage, should not be regarded as evidence for new physics. Furthermore, we identify excluded parameter regions where the predicted GW signal from cosmological sources significantly exceeds the NANOGrav signal. These parameter constraints are independent of the origin of the NANOGrav signal and illustrate how pulsar timing data provide a new way to constrain the parameter space of these models. Finally, we search for deterministic signals produced by models of ultralight dark matter (ULDM) and dark matter substructures in the Milky Way. We find no evidence for either of these signals and thus report updated constraints on these models. In the case of ULDM, these constraints outperform torsion balance and atomic clock constraints for ULDM coupled to electrons, muons, or gluons. △ Less

Submitted 28 June, 2023; originally announced June 2023.

Comments: 74 pages, 31 figures, 4 tables; published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

The NANOGrav 15-Year Data Set: Detector Characterization and Noise Budget

Authors: Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Paul T. Baker, Bence Bécsy, Laura Blecha, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Tyler Cohen, James M. Cordes, Neil J. Cornish, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Megan E. Decesar, Paul B. Demorest, Timothy Dolch, Brendan Drachler, Elizabeth C. Ferrara, William Fiore, Emmanuel Fonseca , et al. (66 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are galactic-scale gravitational wave detectors. Each individual arm, composed of a millisecond pulsar, a radio telescope, and a kiloparsecs-long path, differs in its properties but, in aggregate, can be used to extract low-frequency gravitational wave (GW) signals. We present a noise and sensitivity analysis to accompany the NANOGrav 15-year data release and associated… ▽ More Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are galactic-scale gravitational wave detectors. Each individual arm, composed of a millisecond pulsar, a radio telescope, and a kiloparsecs-long path, differs in its properties but, in aggregate, can be used to extract low-frequency gravitational wave (GW) signals. We present a noise and sensitivity analysis to accompany the NANOGrav 15-year data release and associated papers, along with an in-depth introduction to PTA noise models. As a first step in our analysis, we characterize each individual pulsar data set with three types of white noise parameters and two red noise parameters. These parameters, along with the timing model and, particularly, a piecewise-constant model for the time-variable dispersion measure, determine the sensitivity curve over the low-frequency GW band we are searching. We tabulate information for all of the pulsars in this data release and present some representative sensitivity curves. We then combine the individual pulsar sensitivities using a signal-to-noise-ratio statistic to calculate the global sensitivity of the PTA to a stochastic background of GWs, obtaining a minimum noise characteristic strain of $7\times 10^{-15}$ at 5 nHz. A power law-integrated analysis shows rough agreement with the amplitudes recovered in NANOGrav's 15-year GW background analysis. While our phenomenological noise model does not model all known physical effects explicitly, it provides an accurate characterization of the noise in the data while preserving sensitivity to multiple classes of GW signals. △ Less

Submitted 28 June, 2023; originally announced June 2023.

Comments: 67 pages, 73 figures, 3 tables; published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Observations and Timing of 68 Millisecond Pulsars

Authors: Gabriella Agazie, Md Faisal Alam, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Paul T. Baker, Laura Blecha, Victoria Bonidie, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, Bence Bécsy, Christopher Chapman, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Tyler Cohen, James M. Cordes, Neil J. Cornish, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Timothy Dolch, Brendan Drachler , et al. (75 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: We present observations and timing analyses of 68 millisecond pulsars (MSPs) comprising the 15-year data set of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). NANOGrav is a pulsar timing array (PTA) experiment that is sensitive to low-frequency gravitational waves. This is NANOGrav's fifth public data release, including both "narrowband" and "wideband" time-of-arrival… ▽ More We present observations and timing analyses of 68 millisecond pulsars (MSPs) comprising the 15-year data set of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). NANOGrav is a pulsar timing array (PTA) experiment that is sensitive to low-frequency gravitational waves. This is NANOGrav's fifth public data release, including both "narrowband" and "wideband" time-of-arrival (TOA) measurements and corresponding pulsar timing models. We have added 21 MSPs and extended our timing baselines by three years, now spanning nearly 16 years for some of our sources. The data were collected using the Arecibo Observatory, the Green Bank Telescope, and the Very Large Array between frequencies of 327 MHz and 3 GHz, with most sources observed approximately monthly. A number of notable methodological and procedural changes were made compared to our previous data sets. These improve the overall quality of the TOA data set and are part of the transition to new pulsar timing and PTA analysis software packages. For the first time, our data products are accompanied by a full suite of software to reproduce data reduction, analysis, and results. Our timing models include a variety of newly detected astrometric and binary pulsar parameters, including several significant improvements to pulsar mass constraints. We find that the time series of 23 pulsars contain detectable levels of red noise, 10 of which are new measurements. In this data set, we find evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave background. △ Less

Submitted 28 June, 2023; originally announced June 2023.

Comments: 90 pages, 74 figures, 6 tables; published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Evidence for a Gravitational-Wave Background

Authors: Gabriella Agazie, Akash Anumarlapudi, Anne M. Archibald, Zaven Arzoumanian, Paul T. Baker, Bence Becsy, Laura Blecha, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, Rand Burnette, Robin Case, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Katerina Chatziioannou, Belinda D. Cheeseboro, Siyuan Chen, Tyler Cohen, James M. Cordes, Neil J. Cornish, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie, Kathryn Crowter, Curt J. Cutler, Megan E. DeCesar , et al. (89 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: We report multiple lines of evidence for a stochastic signal that is correlated among 67 pulsars from the 15-year pulsar-timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. The correlations follow the Hellings-Downs pattern expected for a stochastic gravitational-wave background. The presence of such a gravitational-wave background with a power-law-spectr… ▽ More We report multiple lines of evidence for a stochastic signal that is correlated among 67 pulsars from the 15-year pulsar-timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. The correlations follow the Hellings-Downs pattern expected for a stochastic gravitational-wave background. The presence of such a gravitational-wave background with a power-law-spectrum is favored over a model with only independent pulsar noises with a Bayes factor in excess of $10^{14}$, and this same model is favored over an uncorrelated common power-law-spectrum model with Bayes factors of 200-1000, depending on spectral modeling choices. We have built a statistical background distribution for these latter Bayes factors using a method that removes inter-pulsar correlations from our data set, finding $p = 10^{-3}$ (approx. $3σ$) for the observed Bayes factors in the null no-correlation scenario. A frequentist test statistic built directly as a weighted sum of inter-pulsar correlations yields $p = 5 \times 10^{-5} - 1.9 \times 10^{-4}$ (approx. $3.5 - 4σ$). Assuming a fiducial $f^{-2/3}$ characteristic-strain spectrum, as appropriate for an ensemble of binary supermassive black-hole inspirals, the strain amplitude is $2.4^{+0.7}_{-0.6} \times 10^{-15}$ (median + 90% credible interval) at a reference frequency of 1/(1 yr). The inferred gravitational-wave background amplitude and spectrum are consistent with astrophysical expectations for a signal from a population of supermassive black-hole binaries, although more exotic cosmological and astrophysical sources cannot be excluded. The observation of Hellings-Downs correlations points to the gravitational-wave origin of this signal. △ Less

Submitted 28 June, 2023; originally announced June 2023.

Comments: 30 pages, 18 figures. Published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

Searching for continuous Gravitational Waves in the second data release of the International Pulsar Timing Array

Authors: M. Falxa, S. Babak, P. T. Baker, B. Bécsy, A. Chalumeau, S. Chen, Z. Chen, N. J. Cornish, L. Guillemot, J. S. Hazboun, C. M. F. Mingarelli, A. Parthasarathy, A. Petiteau, N. S. Pol, A. Sesana, S. B. Spolaor, S. R. Taylor, G. Theureau, M. Vallisneri, S. J. Vigeland, C. A. Witt, X. Zhu, J. Antoniadis, Z. Arzoumanian, M. Bailes , et al. (102 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The International Pulsar Timing Array 2nd data release is the combination of datasets from worldwide collaborations. In this study, we search for continuous waves: gravitational wave signals produced by individual supermassive black hole binaries in the local universe. We consider binaries on circular orbits and neglect the evolution of orbital frequency over the observational span. We find no evi… ▽ More The International Pulsar Timing Array 2nd data release is the combination of datasets from worldwide collaborations. In this study, we search for continuous waves: gravitational wave signals produced by individual supermassive black hole binaries in the local universe. We consider binaries on circular orbits and neglect the evolution of orbital frequency over the observational span. We find no evidence for such signals and set sky averaged 95% upper limits on their amplitude h 95 . The most sensitive frequency is 10nHz with h 95 = 9.1 10-15 . We achieved the best upper limit to date at low and high frequencies of the PTA band thanks to improved effective cadence of observations. In our analysis, we have taken into account the recently discovered common red noise process, which has an impact at low frequencies. We also find that the peculiar noise features present in some pulsars data must be taken into account to reduce the false alarm. We show that using custom noise models is essential in searching for continuous gravitational wave signals and setting the upper limit. △ Less

Submitted 19 March, 2023; originally announced March 2023.

Neutron star mass estimates from gamma-ray eclipses in spider millisecond pulsar binaries

Authors: C. J. Clark, M. Kerr, E. D. Barr, B. Bhattacharyya, R. P. Breton, P. Bruel, F. Camilo, W. Chen, I. Cognard, H. T. Cromartie, J. Deneva, V. S. Dhillon, L. Guillemot, M. R. Kennedy, M. Kramer, A. G. Lyne, D. Mata Sánchez, L. Nieder, C. Phillips, S. M. Ransom, P. S. Ray, M. S. E. Roberts, J. Roy, D. A. Smith, R. Spiewak , et al. (4 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Reliable neutron star mass measurements are key to determining the equation-of-state of cold nuclear matter, but these are rare. "Black Widows" and "Redbacks" are compact binaries consisting of millisecond pulsars and semi-degenerate companion stars. Spectroscopy of the optically bright companions can determine their radial velocities, providing inclination-dependent pulsar mass estimates. While i… ▽ More Reliable neutron star mass measurements are key to determining the equation-of-state of cold nuclear matter, but these are rare. "Black Widows" and "Redbacks" are compact binaries consisting of millisecond pulsars and semi-degenerate companion stars. Spectroscopy of the optically bright companions can determine their radial velocities, providing inclination-dependent pulsar mass estimates. While inclinations can be inferred from subtle features in optical light curves, such estimates may be systematically biased due to incomplete heating models and poorly-understood variability. Using data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope, we have searched for gamma-ray eclipses from 49 spider systems, discovering significant eclipses in 7 systems, including the prototypical black widow PSR B1957$+$20. Gamma-ray eclipses require direct occultation of the pulsar by the companion, and so the detection, or significant exclusion, of a gamma-ray eclipse strictly limits the binary inclination angle, providing new robust, model-independent pulsar mass constraints. For PSR B1957$+$20, the eclipse implies a much lighter pulsar ($M_{\rm psr} = 1.81 \pm 0.07\,M_{\odot}$) than inferred from optical light curve modelling. △ Less

Submitted 26 January, 2023; originally announced January 2023.

Comments: 31 pages, 4 figures, includes supplementary tables; published in Nature Astronomy

The NANOGrav 12.5-year Data Set: Bayesian Limits on Gravitational Waves from Individual Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

Authors: Zaven Arzoumanian, Paul T. Baker, Laura Blecha, Harsha Blumer, Adam Brazier, Paul R. Brook, Sarah Burke-Spolaor, Bence Bécsy, J. Andrew Casey-Clyde, Maria Charisi, Shami Chatterjee, Siyuan Chen, James M. Cordes, Neil J. Cornish, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie, Megan E. DeCesar, Paul B. Demorest, Timothy Dolch, Brendan Drachler, Justin A. Ellis, E. C. Ferrara, William Fiore, Emmanuel Fonseca, Gabriel E. Freedman , et al. (53 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Pulsar timing array collaborations, such as the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav), are seeking to detect nanohertz gravitational waves emitted by supermassive black hole binaries formed in the aftermath of galaxy mergers. We have searched for continuous waves from individual circular supermassive black hole binaries using the NANOGrav's recent 12.5-year data s… ▽ More Pulsar timing array collaborations, such as the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav), are seeking to detect nanohertz gravitational waves emitted by supermassive black hole binaries formed in the aftermath of galaxy mergers. We have searched for continuous waves from individual circular supermassive black hole binaries using the NANOGrav's recent 12.5-year data set. We created new methods to accurately model the uncertainties on pulsar distances in our analysis, and we implemented new techniques to account for a common red noise process in pulsar timing array data sets while searching for deterministic gravitational wave signals, including continuous waves. As we found no evidence for continuous waves in our data, we placed 95\% upper limits on the strain amplitude of continuous waves emitted by these sources. At our most sensitive frequency of 7.65 nanohertz, we placed a sky-averaged limit of $h_0 < $ $(6.82 \pm 0.35) \times 10^{-15}$, and $h_0 <$ $(2.66 \pm 0.15) \times 10^{-15}$ in our most sensitive sky location. Finally, we placed a multi-messenger limit of $\mathcal{M} <$ $(1.41 \pm 0.02) \times 10^9 M_\odot$ on the chirp mass of the supermassive black hole binary candidate 3C~66B. △ Less

Submitted 6 June, 2023; v1 submitted 9 January, 2023; originally announced January 2023.

Comments: 22 pages, 12 figures. Accepted by ApJL

An unusual pulse shape change event in PSR J1713+0747 observed with the Green Bank Telescope and CHIME

Authors: Ross J. Jennings, James M. Cordes, Shami Chatterjee, Maura A. McLaughlin, Paul B. Demorest, Zaven Arzoumanian, Paul T. Baker, Harsha Blumer, Paul R. Brook, Tyler Cohen, Fronefield Crawford, H. Thankful Cromartie, Megan E. DeCesar, Timothy Dolch, Elizabeth C. Ferrara, Emmanuel Fonseca, Deborah C. Good, Jeffrey S. Hazboun, Megan L. Jones, David L. Kaplan, Michael T. Lam, T. Joseph W. Lazio, Duncan R. Lorimer, Jing Luo, Ryan S. Lynch , et al. (19 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The millisecond pulsar J1713+0747 underwent a sudden and significant pulse shape change between April 16 and 17, 2021 (MJDs 59320 and 59321). Subsequently, the pulse shape gradually recovered over the course of several months. We report the results of continued multi-frequency radio observations of the pulsar made using the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment (CHIME) and the 100-meter G… ▽ More The millisecond pulsar J1713+0747 underwent a sudden and significant pulse shape change between April 16 and 17, 2021 (MJDs 59320 and 59321). Subsequently, the pulse shape gradually recovered over the course of several months. We report the results of continued multi-frequency radio observations of the pulsar made using the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment (CHIME) and the 100-meter Green Bank Telescope (GBT) in a three-year period encompassing the shape change event, between February 2020 and February 2023. As of February 2023, the pulse shape had returned to a state similar to that seen before the event, but with measurable changes remaining. The amplitude of the shape change and the accompanying TOA residuals display a strong non-monotonic dependence on radio frequency, demonstrating that the event is neither a glitch (the effects of which should be independent of radio frequency, $ν$) nor a change in dispersion measure (DM) alone (which would produce a delay proportional to $ν^{-2}$). However, it does bear some resemblance to the two previous "chromatic timing events" observed in J1713+0747 (Demorest et al. 2013; Lam et al. 2016), as well as to a similar event observed in PSR J1643-1224 in 2015 (Shannon et al. 2016). △ Less

Submitted 31 January, 2024; v1 submitted 21 October, 2022; originally announced October 2022.

Comments: 18 pages, 8 figures. Submitted to ApJ. Data available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7236459

Snowmass 2021 Cosmic Frontier White Paper: The Dense Matter Equation of State and QCD Phase Transitions

Authors: Slavko Bogdanov, Emmanuel Fonseca, Rahul Kashyap, Aleksi Kurkela, James M. Lattimer, Jocelyn S. Read, Bangalore S. Sathyaprakash, H. Thankful Cromartie, Tim Dietrich, Arnab Dhani, Timothy Dolch, Tyler Gorda, Sebastien Guillot, Wynn C. G. Ho, Rachael Huxford, Frederick K. Lamb, Philippe Landry, Bradley W. Meyers, M. Coleman Miller, Joonas Nättilä, Risto Paatelainen, Chanda Prescod-Weinstein, Saga Säppi, Ingrid H. Stairs, Nikolaos Stergioulas , et al. (4 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Our limited understanding of the physical properties of matter at ultra-high density, high proton/neutron number asymmetry, and low temperature is presently one of the major outstanding problems in physics. As matter in this extreme state is known to only exist stably in the cores of neutron stars (NSs), complementary measurements from electromagnetic and gravitational wave astrophysical observati… ▽ More Our limited understanding of the physical properties of matter at ultra-high density, high proton/neutron number asymmetry, and low temperature is presently one of the major outstanding problems in physics. As matter in this extreme state is known to only exist stably in the cores of neutron stars (NSs), complementary measurements from electromagnetic and gravitational wave astrophysical observations of NSs, combined with terrestrial laboratory constraints and further theoretical investigations, hold the promise to provide important insight into the properties of matter in a region of the quantum chromodynamics phase space that is otherwise inaccessible. This multidisciplinary endeavor imposes the following requirements for facilities and resources in the upcoming decade and beyond: * A next generation of gravitational wave detectors to uncover more double NS and neutron star-black hole mergers; * Sensitive radio telescopes to find the most massive and fastest spinning NSs; * Large-area, high-time-resolution and/or high angular resolution X-ray telescopes to constrain the NS mass-radius relation; * Suitable laboratory facilities for nuclear physics experiments to constrain the dense matter equation of state; * Funding resources for theoretical studies of matter in this regime; * The availability of modern large-scale high performance computing infrastructure. The same facilities and resources would also enable significant advances in other high-profile fields of inquiry in modern physics such as the nature of dark matter, alternative theories of gravity, nucleon superfluidity and superconductivity, as well as an array of astrophysics, including but not limited to stellar evolution, nucleosynthesis, and primordial black holes. △ Less

Submitted 15 September, 2022; originally announced September 2022.

Comments: Submitted to the Proceedings of the US Community Study on the Future of Particle Physics (Snowmass 2021) under Cosmic Frontier (CF07: Cosmic probes of fundamental physics); 30 pages, 8 figures

Is the black-widow pulsar PSR J1555-2908 in a hierarchical triple system?

Authors: L. Nieder, M. Kerr, C. J. Clark, P. Bruel, H. T. Cromartie, S. M. Ransom, P. S. Ray

Abstract: The 559 Hz black-widow pulsar PSR J1555-2908, originally discovered in radio, is also a bright gamma-ray pulsar. Timing its pulsations using 12 yr of Fermi-LAT gamma-ray data reveals long-term variations in its spin frequency that are much larger than is observed from other millisecond pulsars. While this variability in the pulsar rotation rate could be intrinsic "timing noise", here we consider a… ▽ More The 559 Hz black-widow pulsar PSR J1555-2908, originally discovered in radio, is also a bright gamma-ray pulsar. Timing its pulsations using 12 yr of Fermi-LAT gamma-ray data reveals long-term variations in its spin frequency that are much larger than is observed from other millisecond pulsars. While this variability in the pulsar rotation rate could be intrinsic "timing noise", here we consider an alternative explanation: the variations arise from the presence of a very-low-mass third object in a wide multi-year orbit around the neutron star and its low-mass companion. With current data, this hierarchical-triple-system model describes the pulsar's rotation slightly more accurately than the best-fitting timing-noise model. Future observations will show if this alternative explanation is correct. △ Less

Submitted 11 February, 2022; originally announced February 2022.

Comments: 6 pages, 2 figures, submitted to ApJL

Discovery, Timing, and Multiwavelength Observations of the Black Widow Millisecond Pulsar PSR J1555-2908

Authors: Paul S. Ray, Lars Nieder, Colin J. Clark, Scott M. Ransom, H. Thankful Cromartie, Dale A. Frail, Kunal P. Mooley, Huib Intema, Preshanth Jagannathan, Paul Demorest, Kevin Stovall, Jules P. Halpern, Julia Deneva, Sebastien Guillot, Matthew Kerr, Samuel J. Swihart, Philippe Bruel, Ben W. Stappers, Andrew Lyne, Mitch Mickaliger, Fernando Camilo, Elizabeth C. Ferrara, Michael T. Wolff, P. F. Michelson

Abstract: We report the discovery of PSR J1555-2908, a 1.79 ms radio and gamma-ray pulsar in a 5.6 hr binary system with a minimum companion mass of 0.052 $M_\odot$. This fast and energetic ($\dot E = 3 \times 10^{35}$ erg/s) millisecond pulsar was first detected as a gamma-ray point source in Fermi LAT sky survey observations. Guided by a steep spectrum radio point source in the Fermi error region, we perf… ▽ More We report the discovery of PSR J1555-2908, a 1.79 ms radio and gamma-ray pulsar in a 5.6 hr binary system with a minimum companion mass of 0.052 $M_\odot$. This fast and energetic ($\dot E = 3 \times 10^{35}$ erg/s) millisecond pulsar was first detected as a gamma-ray point source in Fermi LAT sky survey observations. Guided by a steep spectrum radio point source in the Fermi error region, we performed a search at 820 MHz with the Green Bank Telescope that first discovered the pulsations. The initial radio pulse timing observations provided enough information to seed a search for gamma-ray pulsations in the LAT data, from which we derive a timing solution valid for the full Fermi mission. In addition to the radio and gamma-ray pulsation discovery and timing, we searched for X-ray pulsations using NICER but no significant pulsations were detected. We also obtained time-series r-band photometry that indicates strong heating of the companion star by the pulsar wind. Material blown off the heated companion eclipses the 820 MHz radio pulse during inferior conjunction of the companion for ~10% of the orbit, which is twice the angle subtended by its Roche lobe in an edge-on system. △ Less

Submitted 9 February, 2022; originally announced February 2022.

Comments: 15 pages, 6 figures, accepted by ApJ