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energy-markets

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Predicted Spanish day-ahead energy demand and price with 97.5% accuracy using a range of ML and statistical time series forecasting models including XGBoost, Transformers, TFTs and SARIMA.

  • Updated Apr 6, 2025
  • Jupyter Notebook

Self-hosted, bitemporal (point-in-time-correct) data platform for power markets: EIA-930 (all US balancing authorities) + ERCOT real-time/day-ahead prices and load into a versioned ArcticDB store, Dagster-orchestrated, served point-in-time via a read API.

  • Updated Jul 17, 2026
  • Python

Regime-conditional volatility forecasting framework using HAR-RV as a baseline and XGBoost on either residual vol or directly on log(RV), implemented for Germany and France electricity markets. Metric: Spearman ranking. Model validation and market-neutral cross-country trading strategy.

  • Updated May 25, 2026
  • Jupyter Notebook

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