Orbit: Crypto Community Feed

Brothers, the whales have started to liquidate. One whale began taking profits as the market rose. This whale previously bought 79,216 ETH at an average price of $1,777 (total value about $140.77 million) and 1,400 WBTC at an average price of $63,887 (total value about $89.44 million). In the past 3 days, it sold 15,765 ETH at an average price of $2,281 (about $36 million) and 110 WBTC at an average price of $78,235 (about $8.6 million), realizing a profit of about $9.5 million. No wonder there were occasional spikes over the weekend; profit-taking has begun to escape. Brothers, be careful and keep your leverage low when chasing longs. This sharp rally has heavy profit-taking pressure. Although I still remain bullish, I can't withstand these whales unloading and causing spikes.

#ZEC hits an all-time high on the site, privacy assets revalued I remember Monero appeared in a movie, and out of curiosity, I looked into these privacy coins. At that time, $ZEC was still around $400. Looking back now, this logic has become clearer and clearer. ZEC has recently hit a new all-time high, and the privacy sector is clearly being targeted by capital again. Many people understand privacy coins too narrowly. Actually, I think Ethereum is like a "half privacy sector." ETH itself is a public ledger, and on-chain fund flows can be tracked, but privacy protocols like Railgun have already grown on it, enabling hidden transactions and private DeFi through zero-knowledge proofs. This means that future privacy competition may not only be between native privacy coins like ZEC and XMR, but more likely a competition between "public chains + privacy layers." Even from real cases, in 2023 the FBI confirmed that Lazarus processed over $60 million worth of Ethereum through Railgun. So now I look at this sector by considering ZEC and $ETH together: the former represents the revaluation of native privacy assets, while the latter represents huge application scenarios for privacy infrastructure. If on-chain assets continue to grow and regulation and on-chain tracking become stronger, I actually think "privacy" may not be a niche demand but will gradually become a fundamental layer of infrastructure that public chains must solve.

Once ETH strengthens, there is indeed a historical inertia of funds flowing into DOGE, which has been a repeatedly played "transmission chain" in past bull markets. Looking back at 2017 and 2021, the market rhythm was astonishingly consistent: first, Bitcoin attracted capital and established the bull market, then ETH, as the leading altcoin, took over the rally. When ETH's gains began to plateau and profit-taking sought outlets with higher elasticity, coins like DOGE, which have the strongest retail sentiment, experienced an explosion. The first quarter of 2021 is the most typical example: ETH doubled first, resetting market expectations for the altcoin season, followed by $DOGE delivering tens of times gains over several months. The timing lagged behind $ETH but far exceeded its elasticity. In the partial rotation at the end of 2024, the same script played out again—after ETH stabilized, DOGE quickly became a frequent top gainer. The logic behind this pattern is not complicated. ETH strengthening itself is the most effective "starting gun" for the altcoin season, signaling a rise in market risk appetite; DOGE, lacking complex fundamentals and priced almost entirely by sentiment and liquidity, naturally becomes a high-beta outlet for overflow funds. In other words, ETH is the thermometer, DOGE is the amplifier.

Wintermute's $191 million short position on Hyperliquid is not just a matter of direction On-chain monitoring shows that Wintermute's short exposure on Hyperliquid has increased to $191 million, with an unrealized loss of about $5.85 million. At first glance, it looks like an institution betting on a market downturn, but upon closer examination, there are several unusual aspects to this. First, the "one-sided" stance of a market maker itself is worth caution. Wintermute's core business is market making, handling tens of thousands of bilateral orders daily, with profits coming from bid-ask spreads and rebates, not directional gambling. A company relying on a neutral strategy suddenly concentrating over 91% of its short positions on a single platform is not typical. Even for hedging, positions are usually diversified across multiple platforms and instruments to avoid excessive exposure in one place. But this time it's different—they concentrated the $191 million short solely on Hyperliquid, while frequently transferring funds to Binance and other CEXs. What does this imply? Either Hyperliquid's depth and liquidity are irreplaceable by other platforms, or this trade itself carries some "must-do" rationale. Second, adding to a losing position defies common sense but may not be irrational. An unrealized loss of $5.85 million is not significant for Wintermute managing tens of billions in assets, but the key is their choice to keep adding rather than cutting losses. This is common in traditional finance—when you realize your hedge ratio was off or the market temporarily deviates from your neutral zone, adding to the position is a normal risk control action. But in crypto, on-chain transparency magnifies this behavior, making outsiders interpret it as a "firmly bearish" stance. The reality might be the opposite: if Wintermute holds long spot assets worth hundreds of millions, the more the short position loses, the more their spot unrealized gains increase. This is a classic hedging logic, not a one-sided bet. Third, this trade exposes a deep characteristic of the DeFi derivatives market. Platforms like Hyperliquid, which offer on-chain perpetual contracts, essentially move traditional exchange order books onto the blockchain, but with a key difference: all large positions are publicly visible. Wintermute's short position is tracked in real time, exposing their cost basis, liquidation price, and floating P&L to the market. For market makers, this is both a disadvantage and an advantage—the disadvantage is becoming a target for counterparties once spotted; the advantage is that if their risk models are robust enough, this transparency can deter opponents because others know they have sufficient collateral to withstand volatility. The $191 million position corresponds to continuously added collateral, which itself is a "show of strength." Fourth, this may reflect a generational shift in institutional behavior. A few years ago, market makers' crypto activities were mainly on centralized exchanges, opaque and hard to assess. Now, with the rise of on-chain derivatives platforms, some institutional exposures are "on-chain," allowing outsiders to observe top market makers' position adjustments in real time. But this also raises new questions: are we seeing the full truth or just what they want us to see? While Wintermute increases shorts on Hyperliquid, they might be executing completely opposite trades on other platforms or OTC markets. Such cross-platform strategies mean on-chain data captures only the tip of the iceberg. Therefore, the real point to ponder is not "whether Wintermute is bearish or bullish," but: in a market where more institutional exposures are revealed on-chain, how should we interpret this data? A massive short position could mean bearishness, hedging, executing client instructions, or arbitraging funding rates. Each explanation is plausible but none can be confirmed. Instead of guessing direction from a single platform's position, consider this: Wintermute's willingness to place such a large position on-chain shows their confidence in the market's transparency and liquidity, and indicates that platforms like Hyperliquid have the capacity to handle large institutional orders. This itself signals market maturation. As for direction, perhaps even Wintermute doesn't have a fixed answer—they are managing risk, not betting on direction. $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入

Early Monday morning, the US market is about to open. For those without positions, it's recommended to wait until the US market opens before taking action. Weekend liquidity is too thin, causing prices to be pushed back and forth, making the direction meaningless as a reference. The weekend market follows one script: a rally on Friday, a drop over the weekend, and now a slow recovery. BTC: Touched 79,500 on Friday, liquidity pulled sharply over the weekend back to 75,500, now rebounding near 77,000. Wait for stabilization between 76,300-76,600 to go long, with a stop loss below 75,500. Heavy resistance between 78,400-79,500; if the US market pushes into this zone, expect more volatility. ETF funds were still flowing in on Friday, but short-term resistance levels must be respected. ETH: 2,420, weekly high 2,546, low 2,355. Spot ETF net inflow exceeded 500 million this week, so funding is solid. If it can't hold 2,455-2,470, expect more consolidation. Buy between 2,380-2,400, stop loss at 2,355. ETH has greater elasticity than BTC; buy on dips, but don't chase the bullish candles on the rebound. SOL: 94.5, surged to 102 on Friday then dropped back to 87.5 over the weekend. Grayscale GSOL had a single-day inflow of 7.13 million, showing clear institutional allocation interest. If it can't break through 95-97, expect repeated attempts. Buy between 90.5-91.8, stop loss at 88.5. Many short-term chips were washed out over the weekend. When US market liquidity returns, the direction will become clearer. ETFs are still flowing in, the big structure remains intact, but the September CLARITY Act and SEC's review of leveraged ETFs won't be quiet. Wait for the market open to see how institutions respond before taking action.

$BTC consolidation after surge, continuous inflow of ETF funds The biggest change in this market cycle is not the price increase, but the structure of the buying side After $BTC quickly broke through $70,000 and surged to above $72,000 at its peak, it has now entered a high-level consolidation phase. If you only look at the price, it’s easy to interpret this as weakness after the surge. But what I’m more focused on is not the short-term candlesticks #BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500

In the last 4 hours for $BTC, long positions across the BTC network liquidated $9.61 million, short positions liquidated $17.836 million, with bulls starting to gain momentum and clearly taking the advantage. Within 4 hours, BTC rose steadily from around 77,100 to 78,000, then slowly dropped to 77,500, with relatively small volatility. However, the long-short battle has just begun, and a winner is expected to emerge before tonight.

From $250 to $860: $ZEC hits an eight-year high. In June, a serious vulnerability was exposed in $ZEC's Orchard privacy pool, theoretically allowing the creation of undetectable counterfeit ZEC. Although there is no evidence that the vulnerability was exploited, the market remained concerned about the credibility of the supply, causing the price to plummet from around $630 to below $250. OKX market data shows $ZEC has rebounded to $840, with an intraday high surpassing $875, marking an eight-year peak. The rapid market reversal is due to two factors: first, the Ironwood privacy pool completed formal verification, enabling independent verification of circulating supply; second, Grayscale continues to push for the Zcash trust to convert to an ETF, planning to list ZCSH on NYSE Arca, bringing renewed capital attention to the privacy sector. The market is currently overheated: ZEC futures trading volume is about $9.5 billion, while spot trading is only $1.06 billion, with leveraged trading nearly nine times the spot volume. This rally is driven by security fixes and ETF expectations, as well as the boost from derivatives. Going forward, it is important to watch whether spot market funds can take over; if the news cools down, the price could fall quickly as well.