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Grounded Event Extraction from SEC 8-K Filings with a Fine-Grained Taxonomy
Authors:
Rian Dolphin,
Joe Dursun,
Jarrett Blankenship,
Katie Adams,
Quinton Pike
Abstract:
Form 8-K filings are the primary channel through which U.S. public companies disclose material events, but the SEC item codes attached to them are coarse: a single item spans routine administrative changes and chief executive departures, and many of the most market-moving disclosures fall into a catch-all item. Large language models make fine-grained labelling feasible at corpus scale, but only if…
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Form 8-K filings are the primary channel through which U.S. public companies disclose material events, but the SEC item codes attached to them are coarse: a single item spans routine administrative changes and chief executive departures, and many of the most market-moving disclosures fall into a catch-all item. Large language models make fine-grained labelling feasible at corpus scale, but only if the labels can be traced to the source text and shown to be reliable. We present a two-stage system that tags 8-K disclosures against a three-tier taxonomy of 119 event types. The first stage constrains output to valid taxonomy entries and anchors every tag to a verbatim quote via fuzzy n-gram validation; the second re-grades each cited quote against the category definition to produce a quality score. Applying the system to 292,984 filings from 2022 to 2026 yields 601,088 grounded event tags, which we release. Over 5,125 stratified tags, an LLM judge finds precision rises monotonically with the quality score, from 12% to 96%, while unsupported tags fall from 8% to near zero. Ablation shows the score is calibrated only when assigned in a dedicated second pass. An event study on unsigned abnormal returns confirms, without any language model, that the taxonomy separates economically distinct events sharing an item code.
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Submitted 9 July, 2026;
originally announced July 2026.
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Relational Probing: LM-to-Graph Adaptation for Financial Prediction
Authors:
Yingjie Niu,
Changhong Jin,
Rian Dolphin,
Ruihai Dong
Abstract:
Language models can be used to identify relationships between financial entities in text. However, while structured output mechanisms exist, prompting-based pipelines still incur autoregressive decoding costs and decouple graph construction from downstream optimization. We propose \emph{Relational Probing}, which replaces the standard language-model head with a relation head that induces a relatio…
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Language models can be used to identify relationships between financial entities in text. However, while structured output mechanisms exist, prompting-based pipelines still incur autoregressive decoding costs and decouple graph construction from downstream optimization. We propose \emph{Relational Probing}, which replaces the standard language-model head with a relation head that induces a relational graph directly from language-model hidden states and is trained jointly with the downstream task model for stock-trend prediction. This approach both learns semantic representations and preserves the strict structure of the induced relational graph. It enables language-model outputs to go beyond text, allowing them to be reshaped into task-specific formats for downstream models. To enhance reproducibility, we provide an operational definition of small language models (SLMs): models that can be fine-tuned end-to-end on a single 24GB GPU under specified batch-size and sequence-length settings. Experiments use Qwen3 backbones (0.6B/1.7B/4B) as upstream SLMs and compare against a co-occurrence baseline. Relational Probing yields consistent performance improvements at competitive inference cost.
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Submitted 11 April, 2026;
originally announced April 2026.
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Taxonomy-Aligned Risk Extraction from 10-K Filings with Autonomous Improvement Using LLMs
Authors:
Rian Dolphin,
Joe Dursun,
Jarrett Blankenship,
Katie Adams,
Quinton Pike
Abstract:
We present a methodology for extracting structured risk factors from corporate 10-K filings while maintaining adherence to a predefined hierarchical taxonomy. Our three-stage pipeline combines LLM extraction with supporting quotes, embedding-based semantic mapping to taxonomy categories, and LLM-as-a-judge validation that filters spurious assignments. To evaluate our approach, we extract 10,688 ri…
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We present a methodology for extracting structured risk factors from corporate 10-K filings while maintaining adherence to a predefined hierarchical taxonomy. Our three-stage pipeline combines LLM extraction with supporting quotes, embedding-based semantic mapping to taxonomy categories, and LLM-as-a-judge validation that filters spurious assignments. To evaluate our approach, we extract 10,688 risk factors from S&P 500 companies and examine risk profile similarity across industry clusters. Beyond extraction, we introduce autonomous taxonomy maintenance where an AI agent analyzes evaluation feedback to identify problematic categories, diagnose failure patterns, and propose refinements, achieving 104.7% improvement in embedding separation in a case study. External validation confirms the taxonomy captures economically meaningful structure: same-industry companies exhibit 63% higher risk profile similarity than cross-industry pairs (Cohen's d=1.06, AUC 0.82, p<0.001). The methodology generalizes to any domain requiring taxonomy-aligned extraction from unstructured text, with autonomous improvement enabling continuous quality maintenance and enhancement as systems process more documents.
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Submitted 21 January, 2026;
originally announced January 2026.
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Evaluating Financial Relational Graphs: Interpretation Before Prediction
Authors:
Yingjie Niu,
Lanxin Lu,
Rian Dolphin,
Valerio Poti,
Ruihai Dong
Abstract:
Accurate and robust stock trend forecasting has been a crucial and challenging task, as stock price changes are influenced by multiple factors. Graph neural network-based methods have recently achieved remarkable success in this domain by constructing stock relationship graphs that reflect internal factors and relationships between stocks. However, most of these methods rely on predefined factors…
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Accurate and robust stock trend forecasting has been a crucial and challenging task, as stock price changes are influenced by multiple factors. Graph neural network-based methods have recently achieved remarkable success in this domain by constructing stock relationship graphs that reflect internal factors and relationships between stocks. However, most of these methods rely on predefined factors to construct static stock relationship graphs due to the lack of suitable datasets, failing to capture the dynamic changes in stock relationships. Moreover, the evaluation of relationship graphs in these methods is often tied to the performance of neural network models on downstream tasks, leading to confusion and imprecision. To address these issues, we introduce the SPNews dataset, collected based on S\&P 500 Index stocks, to facilitate the construction of dynamic relationship graphs. Furthermore, we propose a novel set of financial relationship graph evaluation methods that are independent of downstream tasks. By using the relationship graph to explain historical financial phenomena, we assess its validity before constructing a graph neural network, ensuring the graph's effectiveness in capturing relevant financial relationships. Experimental results demonstrate that our evaluation methods can effectively differentiate between various financial relationship graphs, yielding more interpretable results compared to traditional approaches. We make our source code publicly available on GitHub to promote reproducibility and further research in this area.
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Submitted 28 September, 2024;
originally announced October 2024.
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Contrastive Learning of Asset Embeddings from Financial Time Series
Authors:
Rian Dolphin,
Barry Smyth,
Ruihai Dong
Abstract:
Representation learning has emerged as a powerful paradigm for extracting valuable latent features from complex, high-dimensional data. In financial domains, learning informative representations for assets can be used for tasks like sector classification, and risk management. However, the complex and stochastic nature of financial markets poses unique challenges. We propose a novel contrastive lea…
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Representation learning has emerged as a powerful paradigm for extracting valuable latent features from complex, high-dimensional data. In financial domains, learning informative representations for assets can be used for tasks like sector classification, and risk management. However, the complex and stochastic nature of financial markets poses unique challenges. We propose a novel contrastive learning framework to generate asset embeddings from financial time series data. Our approach leverages the similarity of asset returns over many subwindows to generate informative positive and negative samples, using a statistical sampling strategy based on hypothesis testing to address the noisy nature of financial data. We explore various contrastive loss functions that capture the relationships between assets in different ways to learn a discriminative representation space. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the learned asset embeddings on benchmark industry classification and portfolio optimization tasks. In each case our novel approaches significantly outperform existing baselines highlighting the potential for contrastive learning to capture meaningful and actionable relationships in financial data.
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Submitted 26 July, 2024;
originally announced July 2024.
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Extracting Structured Insights from Financial News: An Augmented LLM Driven Approach
Authors:
Rian Dolphin,
Joe Dursun,
Jonathan Chow,
Jarrett Blankenship,
Katie Adams,
Quinton Pike
Abstract:
Financial news plays a crucial role in decision-making processes across the financial sector, yet the efficient processing of this information into a structured format remains challenging. This paper presents a novel approach to financial news processing that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to overcome limitations that previously prevented the extraction of structured data from unstructured…
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Financial news plays a crucial role in decision-making processes across the financial sector, yet the efficient processing of this information into a structured format remains challenging. This paper presents a novel approach to financial news processing that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to overcome limitations that previously prevented the extraction of structured data from unstructured financial news. We introduce a system that extracts relevant company tickers from raw news article content, performs sentiment analysis at the company level, and generates summaries, all without relying on pre-structured data feeds. Our methodology combines the generative capabilities of LLMs, and recent prompting techniques, with a robust validation framework that uses a tailored string similarity approach. Evaluation on a dataset of 5530 financial news articles demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach, with 90% of articles not missing any tickers compared with current data providers, and 22% of articles having additional relevant tickers. In addition to this paper, the methodology has been implemented at scale with the resulting processed data made available through a live API endpoint, which is updated in real-time with the latest news. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first data provider to offer granular, per-company sentiment analysis from news articles, enhancing the depth of information available to market participants. We also release the evaluation dataset of 5530 processed articles as a static file, which we hope will facilitate further research leveraging financial news.
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Submitted 22 July, 2024;
originally announced July 2024.
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Industry Classification Using a Novel Financial Time-Series Case Representation
Authors:
Rian Dolphin,
Barry Smyth,
Ruihai Dong
Abstract:
The financial domain has proven to be a fertile source of challenging machine learning problems across a variety of tasks including prediction, clustering, and classification. Researchers can access an abundance of time-series data and even modest performance improvements can be translated into significant additional value. In this work, we consider the use of case-based reasoning for an important…
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The financial domain has proven to be a fertile source of challenging machine learning problems across a variety of tasks including prediction, clustering, and classification. Researchers can access an abundance of time-series data and even modest performance improvements can be translated into significant additional value. In this work, we consider the use of case-based reasoning for an important task in this domain, by using historical stock returns time-series data for industry sector classification. We discuss why time-series data can present some significant representational challenges for conventional case-based reasoning approaches, and in response, we propose a novel representation based on stock returns embeddings, which can be readily calculated from raw stock returns data. We argue that this representation is well suited to case-based reasoning and evaluate our approach using a large-scale public dataset for the industry sector classification task, demonstrating substantial performance improvements over several baselines using more conventional representations.
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Submitted 29 April, 2023;
originally announced May 2023.
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Stock Embeddings: Learning Distributed Representations for Financial Assets
Authors:
Rian Dolphin,
Barry Smyth,
Ruihai Dong
Abstract:
Identifying meaningful relationships between the price movements of financial assets is a challenging but important problem in a variety of financial applications. However with recent research, particularly those using machine learning and deep learning techniques, focused mostly on price forecasting, the literature investigating the modelling of asset correlations has lagged somewhat. To address…
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Identifying meaningful relationships between the price movements of financial assets is a challenging but important problem in a variety of financial applications. However with recent research, particularly those using machine learning and deep learning techniques, focused mostly on price forecasting, the literature investigating the modelling of asset correlations has lagged somewhat. To address this, inspired by recent successes in natural language processing, we propose a neural model for training stock embeddings, which harnesses the dynamics of historical returns data in order to learn the nuanced relationships that exist between financial assets. We describe our approach in detail and discuss a number of ways that it can be used in the financial domain. Furthermore, we present the evaluation results to demonstrate the utility of this approach, compared to several important benchmarks, in two real-world financial analytics tasks.
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Submitted 14 February, 2022;
originally announced February 2022.
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Measuring Financial Time Series Similarity With a View to Identifying Profitable Stock Market Opportunities
Authors:
Rian Dolphin,
Barry Smyth,
Yang Xu,
Ruihai Dong
Abstract:
Forecasting stock returns is a challenging problem due to the highly stochastic nature of the market and the vast array of factors and events that can influence trading volume and prices. Nevertheless it has proven to be an attractive target for machine learning research because of the potential for even modest levels of prediction accuracy to deliver significant benefits. In this paper, we descri…
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Forecasting stock returns is a challenging problem due to the highly stochastic nature of the market and the vast array of factors and events that can influence trading volume and prices. Nevertheless it has proven to be an attractive target for machine learning research because of the potential for even modest levels of prediction accuracy to deliver significant benefits. In this paper, we describe a case-based reasoning approach to predicting stock market returns using only historical pricing data. We argue that one of the impediments for case-based stock prediction has been the lack of a suitable similarity metric when it comes to identifying similar pricing histories as the basis for a future prediction -- traditional Euclidean and correlation based approaches are not effective for a variety of reasons -- and in this regard, a key contribution of this work is the development of a novel similarity metric for comparing historical pricing data. We demonstrate the benefits of this metric and the case-based approach in a real-world application in comparison to a variety of conventional benchmarks.
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Submitted 7 July, 2021;
originally announced July 2021.