Showing 1–50 of 57 results for author: Adam, T

Survey-robust uncertainty quantification in generalised additive models for location, scale, and shape

Authors: Dennis Meurer, Timo Adam

Abstract: Conventional mean-only regression models are often too restrictive for the analysis of complex survey data, where interest frequently extends beyond the conditional mean to other aspects of the response distribution. Generalised additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) provide a flexible framework by allowing all distributional parameters to depend on covariates. However, existing mo… ▽ More Conventional mean-only regression models are often too restrictive for the analysis of complex survey data, where interest frequently extends beyond the conditional mean to other aspects of the response distribution. Generalised additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) provide a flexible framework by allowing all distributional parameters to depend on covariates. However, existing model-based and model-robust standard errors fail to account for complex survey designs and can substantially underestimate the variability of regression parameter estimates. We propose a linearisation-based sandwich variance estimator that incorporates the survey design while remaining computationally efficient. Using a simulation study based on synthetic survey data, we demonstrate that the proposed estimator provides accurate standard error estimates and reliable confidence interval coverage for all distributional parameters, while offering a computationally efficient alternative to replication-based methods. We further illustrate the practical utility of the approach through a re-analysis of data from the 2019/20 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). △ Less

Submitted 11 August, 2026; originally announced August 2026.

Final assessment of radioactive impurities in the JUNO detector

Authors: Thomas Adam, Fengpeng An, Costas Andreopoulos, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Nikita Balashov, Andrea Barresi, Davide Basilico, Eric Baussan, Marco Beretta, Antonio Bergnoli, Nikita Bessonov, Daniel Bick, Lukas Bieger, Svetlana Biktemerova, Thilo Birkenfeld, Simon Blyth, Manuel Böhles, Anastasia Bolshakova, Mathieu Bongrand, Matteo Borghesi , et al. (549 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) collaboration has completed the construction of the 20,000-ton liquid scintillator detector and the associated muon veto detector system. To meet the physics objectives, the materials used in the detector must exhibit low radioactive contamination. The single-event rate in the fiducial volume (R $<$ 17.2 m) of the scintillator is required to be… ▽ More The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) collaboration has completed the construction of the 20,000-ton liquid scintillator detector and the associated muon veto detector system. To meet the physics objectives, the materials used in the detector must exhibit low radioactive contamination. The single-event rate in the fiducial volume (R $<$ 17.2 m) of the scintillator is required to be approximately 7 Hz for energies above 0.7 MeV, resulting in an accidental coincidence background of about 1 event per day for reactor neutrino physics analyses. Since the beginning of the construction phase, we have screened the natural radioactivity content of thousands of materials, to select those that meet the design background budget. The radioactive impurity concentrations of the materials ultimately used in the JUNO detector are summarized in this paper. The construction of the entire detector and the subsequent filling of the liquid scintillator were completed in August 2025. From the initial data, the total count rate of natural radioactivity within the detector's fiducial volume has met the requirements and is sufficient to support the reactor antineutrino analysis. △ Less

Submitted 19 July, 2026; originally announced July 2026.

A Low-energy Threshold and Multi-messenger Trigger System for the JUNO Experiment

Authors: Thomas Adam, Fengpeng An, Costas Andreopoulos, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Nikita Balashov, Andrea Barresi, Davide Basilico, Eric Baussan, Marco Beretta, Antonio Bergnoli, Nikita Bessonov, Daniel Bick, Lukas Bieger, Svetlana Biktemerova, Thilo Birkenfeld, Simon Blyth, Manuel Boehles, Anastasia Bolshakova, Mathieu Bongrand, Matteo Borghesi , et al. (543 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a 20-kiloton liquid scintillator neutrino detector, located 650 meters (1800 m.w.e.) underground in Jiangmen, Guangdong, China. JUNO is primarily designed for reactor neutrino measurements and has been taking data since 2025. With the largest mass of its kind and an excellent energy resolution, JUNO is a leading observatory for high-precision… ▽ More The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a 20-kiloton liquid scintillator neutrino detector, located 650 meters (1800 m.w.e.) underground in Jiangmen, Guangdong, China. JUNO is primarily designed for reactor neutrino measurements and has been taking data since 2025. With the largest mass of its kind and an excellent energy resolution, JUNO is a leading observatory for high-precision measurements of MeV neutrinos. The standard global trigger system serves as the primary trigger for JUNO. We present a newly developed multi-messenger trigger system that extends the capabilities of the global trigger by providing a lower energy threshold and an independent monitoring capability. During the 2025 operation, it achieved an effective energy threshold of approximately 110 +/- 10 keV, providing a lower threshold configuration suitable for low-energy event analysis. The system shows the potential to further reduce the threshold to well below 100 keV. Based on the multi-messenger trigger system, an astrophysical monitor has been developed to receive and process external alerts from other messengers, such as gravitational-wave observations. A Transient Neutrino Burst Monitor is integrated to detect short-time-scale neutrino burst events and enables real-time monitoring of transient astrophysical phenomena. The system is sensitive to neutrino bursts from core-collapse supernovae within a distance of about 250 kpc. △ Less

Submitted 15 July, 2026; originally announced July 2026.

Comments: 29 pages, 19 figures, 3 tables

The Open-Box Fallacy: Why AI Deployment Needs a Calibrated Verification Regime

Authors: Phongsakon Mark Konrad, Tim Lukas Adam, Ane Cathrine Holst Merrild, Riccardo Terrenzi, Rebecca De Rosa, Toygar Tanyel, Serkan Ayvaz

Abstract: AI deployment in sensitive domains such as health care, credit, employment, and criminal justice is often treated as unsafe to authorize until model internals can be explained. This often leads to an excessive reliance on mechanistic interpretability to address a deployment challenge beyond its intended scope. We argue that the gate should instead be calibrated verification: authorization should b… ▽ More AI deployment in sensitive domains such as health care, credit, employment, and criminal justice is often treated as unsafe to authorize until model internals can be explained. This often leads to an excessive reliance on mechanistic interpretability to address a deployment challenge beyond its intended scope. We argue that the gate should instead be calibrated verification: authorization should be domain-scoped, independently checkable, monitored after release, accountable, contestable, and revocable. The reason is twofold. First, model capability is uneven across nearby tasks, so authorization must attach to a specific use rather than to a model in general. Second, societies have long governed opaque expertise through credentials, monitoring, liability, appeal, and revocation rather than mechanism-level explanation. Recent evidence reinforces this distinction between mechanistic understanding and deployment authority: a 53-percentage-point gap between internal representations and output correction shows that understanding may not translate into action, while one scoping review found that only 9.0% of FDA-approved AI/ML device documents contained a prospective post-market surveillance study. We propose Verification Coverage, a six-component reportable standard with a minimum-composition rule, as the metric that should sit beside capability scores in model cards, leaderboards, and regulatory disclosures. △ Less

Submitted 11 May, 2026; originally announced May 2026.

Embedded underwater front-end electronics for the 3-inch photomultipliers in the JUNO experiment

Authors: Cédric Cerna, Miao He, Xiaoshan Jiang, Juan Pedro Ochoa-Ricoux, Frédéric Perrot, Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Fengpeng An, Costas Andreopoulos, Giuseppe Andronico, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Didier Auguste, Nikita Balashov, Andrea Barresi, Davide Basilico, Eric Baussan, Marco Beretta, Antonio Bergnoli, Nikita Bessonov, Daniel Bick, Lukas Bieger, Svetlana Biktemerova , et al. (576 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a 20-kton liquid scintillator-based, low-radioactivity, multi-purpose neutrino detector located 693 meters (1800 m.w.e.) underground in the Guangdong province, China. To detect scintillation light produced in the target, the detector is equipped with 17,612 20-inch photomultipliers (PMTs), forming the Large PMT system (LPMT). In addition, 25,… ▽ More The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a 20-kton liquid scintillator-based, low-radioactivity, multi-purpose neutrino detector located 693 meters (1800 m.w.e.) underground in the Guangdong province, China. To detect scintillation light produced in the target, the detector is equipped with 17,612 20-inch photomultipliers (PMTs), forming the Large PMT system (LPMT). In addition, 25,600 3-inch photomultipliers (the Small Photomultiplier System or SPMT) are deployed in the gaps between the LPMTs. This paper presents the design and performance of the underwater front-end electronics developed for the SPMT system. It details the individual electronics boards and their key components, the inter-board interfaces, the system-level design, and the firmware architecture that supports data acquisition and control. It also outlines mechanical and thermal integration, board validation procedures, and system performance metrics. The readout chain includes digitization of 128 PMT channels per unit, synchronized time-stamping, charge measurement, event packaging, and bandwidth management. Comprehensive validation confirms the system's readiness to meet JUNO's stringent physics goals. The underwater electronics achieve noise levels as low as 0.04 photoelectrons with minimal crosstalk (below 0.4%) and a bandwidth of 57 MB/s, ensuring reliable single photo-electron detection and operation under high-rate conditions. The SPMT system has now been fully integrated and installed in JUNO. Its commissioning and physics performance will be reported in a future publication. △ Less

Submitted 1 June, 2026; v1 submitted 28 April, 2026; originally announced April 2026.

Comments: Submitted to Nucl. Instrum. Methods Phys. Res. A

A Reference Architecture for Agentic Hybrid Retrieval in Dataset Search

Authors: Riccardo Terrenzi, Phongsakon Mark Konrad, Tim Lukas Adam, Serkan Ayvaz

Abstract: Ad hoc dataset search requires matching underspecified natural-language queries against sparse, heterogeneous metadata records, a task where typical lexical or dense retrieval alone falls short. We reposition dataset search as a software-architecture problem and propose a bounded, auditable reference architecture for agentic hybrid retrieval that combines BM25 lexical search with dense-embedding r… ▽ More Ad hoc dataset search requires matching underspecified natural-language queries against sparse, heterogeneous metadata records, a task where typical lexical or dense retrieval alone falls short. We reposition dataset search as a software-architecture problem and propose a bounded, auditable reference architecture for agentic hybrid retrieval that combines BM25 lexical search with dense-embedding retrieval via reciprocal rank fusion (RRF), orchestrated by a large language model (LLM) agent that repeatedly plans queries, evaluates the sufficiency of results, and reranks candidates. To reduce the vocabulary mismatch between user intent and provider-authored metadata, we introduce an offline metadata augmentation step in which an LLM generates pseudo-queries for each dataset record, augmenting both retrieval indexes before query time. Two architectural styles are examined: a single ReAct agent and a multi-agent horizontal architecture with Feedback Control. Their quality-attribute tradeoffs are analyzed with respect to modifiability, observability, performance, and governance. An evaluation framework comprising seven system variants is defined to isolate the contribution of each architectural decision. The architecture is presented as an extensible reference design for the software architecture community, incorporating explicit governance tactics to bound and audit nondeterministic LLM components. △ Less

Submitted 28 March, 2026; originally announced April 2026.

Comments: 7 pages, 3 figures, accepted at SAML 2026

CAKE: Cloud Architecture Knowledge Evaluation of Large Language Models

Authors: Tim Lukas Adam, Phongsakon Mark Konrad, Riccardo Terrenzi, Florian Girardo Lukas, Rahime Yilmaz, Krzysztof Sierszecki, Serkan Ayvaz

Abstract: In today's software architecture, large language models (LLMs) serve as software architecture co-pilots. However, no benchmark currently exists to evaluate large language models' actual understanding of cloud-native software architecture. For this reason we present a benchmark called CAKE, which consists of 188 expert-validated questions covering four cognitive levels of Bloom's revised taxonomy -… ▽ More In today's software architecture, large language models (LLMs) serve as software architecture co-pilots. However, no benchmark currently exists to evaluate large language models' actual understanding of cloud-native software architecture. For this reason we present a benchmark called CAKE, which consists of 188 expert-validated questions covering four cognitive levels of Bloom's revised taxonomy -- recall, analyze, design, and implement -- and five cloud-native topics. Evaluation is conducted on 22 model configurations (0.5B--70B parameters) across four LLM families, using three-run majority voting for multiple-choice questions (MCQs) and LLM-as-a-judge scoring for free-responses (FR). Based on this evaluation, four notable findings were identified. First, MCQ accuracy plateaus above 3B parameters, with the best model reaching 99.2\%. Second, free-response scores scale steadily across all cognitive levels. Third, the two formats capture different facets of knowledge, as the MCQ accuracy approaches a ceiling while free-responses continue to differentiate models. Finally, reasoning augmentation (+think) improves free-response quality, while tool augmentation (+tool) degrades performance for small models. These results suggest that the evaluation format fundamentally shapes how we measure architectural knowledge in LLMs. △ Less

Submitted 7 April, 2026; originally announced April 2026.

Architecture Without Architects: How AI Coding Agents Shape Software Architecture

Authors: Phongsakon Mark Konrad, Tim Lukas Adam, Riccardo Terrenzi, Serkan Ayvaz

Abstract: AI coding agents select frameworks, scaffold infrastructure, and wire integrations, often in seconds. These are architectural decisions, yet almost no one reviews them as such. We identify five mechanisms by which agents make implicit architectural choices and propose six prompt-architecture coupling patterns that map natural-language prompt features to the infrastructure they require. The pattern… ▽ More AI coding agents select frameworks, scaffold infrastructure, and wire integrations, often in seconds. These are architectural decisions, yet almost no one reviews them as such. We identify five mechanisms by which agents make implicit architectural choices and propose six prompt-architecture coupling patterns that map natural-language prompt features to the infrastructure they require. The patterns range from contingent couplings (structured output validation) that may weaken as models improve to fundamental ones (tool-call orchestration) that persist regardless of model capability. An illustrative demonstration confirms that prompt wording alone produces structurally different systems for the same task. We term the phenomenon vibe architecting, architecture shaped by prompts rather than deliberate design, and outline review practices, decision records, and tooling to bring these hidden decisions under governance. △ Less

Submitted 5 April, 2026; originally announced April 2026.

The Climber's Grip -- Personalized Deep Learning Models for Fear and Muscle Activity in Climbing

Authors: Matthias Boeker, Dana Swarbrick, Ulysse T. A. Côté-Allard, Marc T. P. Adam, Hugo L. Hammer, Pål Halvorsen

Abstract: Climbing is a multifaceted sport that combines physical demands and emotional and cognitive challenges. Ascent styles differ in fall distance with lead climbing involving larger falls than top rope climbing, which may result in different perceived risk and fear. In this study, we investigated the psychophysiological relationship between perceived fear and muscle activity in climbers using a combin… ▽ More Climbing is a multifaceted sport that combines physical demands and emotional and cognitive challenges. Ascent styles differ in fall distance with lead climbing involving larger falls than top rope climbing, which may result in different perceived risk and fear. In this study, we investigated the psychophysiological relationship between perceived fear and muscle activity in climbers using a combination of statistical modeling and deep learning techniques. We conducted an experiment with 19 climbers, collecting electromyography (EMG), electrocardiography (ECG) and arm motion data during lead and top rope climbing. Perceived fear ratings were collected for the different phases of the climb. Using a linear mixed-effects model, we analyzed the relationships between perceived fear and physiological measures. To capture the non-linear dynamics of this relationship, we extended our analysis to deep learning models and integrated random effects for a personalized modeling approach. Our results showed that random effects improved model performance of the mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE). The results showed that muscle fatigue correlates significantly with increased fear during \textit{lead climbing}. This study highlights the potential of combining statistical and deep learning approaches for modeling the interplay between psychological and physiological states during climbing. △ Less

Submitted 27 March, 2026; originally announced March 2026.

Non-Homogeneous Markov-Switching Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape

Authors: Katharina Ammann, Timo Adam, Jan-Ole Koslik

Abstract: We propose an extension of Markov-switching generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (MS-GAMLSS) that allows covariates to influence not only the parameters of the state-dependent distributions but also the state transition probabilities. Traditional MS-GAMLSS, which combine distributional regression with hidden Markov models, typically assume time-homogeneous (i.e., constant) tr… ▽ More We propose an extension of Markov-switching generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (MS-GAMLSS) that allows covariates to influence not only the parameters of the state-dependent distributions but also the state transition probabilities. Traditional MS-GAMLSS, which combine distributional regression with hidden Markov models, typically assume time-homogeneous (i.e., constant) transition probabilities, thereby preventing regime shifts from responding to covariate-driven changes. Our approach overcomes this limitation by modeling the transition probabilities as smooth functions of covariates, enabling a flexible, data-driven characterization of covariate-dependent regime dynamics. Estimation is carried out within a penalized likelihood framework, where automatic smoothness selection controls model complexity and guards against overfitting. We evaluate the proposed methodology through simulations and applications to daily Lufthansa stock prices and Spanish energy prices. Our results show that incorporating macroeconomic indicators into the transition probabilities yields additional insights into market dynamics. Data and R code to reproduce the results are available online. △ Less

Submitted 7 January, 2026; originally announced January 2026.

First measurement of reactor neutrino oscillations at JUNO

Authors: Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Kai Adamowicz, David Adey, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Timo Ahola, Sebastiano Aiello, Fengpeng An, Guangpeng An, Costas Andreopoulos, Giuseppe Andronico, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Burin Asavapibhop, Didier Auguste, Margherita Buizza Avanzini, Andrej Babic, Jingzhi Bai, Weidong Bai, Nikita Balashov, Roberto Barbera, Andrea Barresi , et al. (1114 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Neutrino oscillations, a quantum effect manifesting at macroscopic scales, are governed by lepton flavor mixing angles and neutrino mass-squared differences that are fundamental parameters of particle physics, representing phenomena beyond the Standard Model. Precision measurements of these parameters are essential for testing the completeness of the three-flavor framework, determining the mass or… ▽ More Neutrino oscillations, a quantum effect manifesting at macroscopic scales, are governed by lepton flavor mixing angles and neutrino mass-squared differences that are fundamental parameters of particle physics, representing phenomena beyond the Standard Model. Precision measurements of these parameters are essential for testing the completeness of the three-flavor framework, determining the mass ordering of neutrinos, and probing possible new physics. The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a 20 kton liquid-scintillator detector located 52.5 km from multiple reactor cores, designed to resolve the interference pattern of reactor neutrinos with sub-percent precision. Here we report, using the first 59.1 days of data collected since detector completion in August 2025, the first simultaneous high-precision determination of two neutrino oscillation parameters, $\sin^2 θ_{12} = 0.3092\,\pm\,0.0087$ and $Δm^2_{21} = (7.50\,\pm\,0.12)\times10^{-5}\;{\rm eV}^2$ for the normal mass ordering scenario, improving the precision by a factor of 1.6 relative to the combination of all previous measurements. These results advance the basic understanding of neutrinos, validate the detector's design, and confirm JUNO's readiness for its primary goal of resolving the neutrino mass ordering with a larger dataset. The rapid achievement with a short exposure highlights JUNO's potential to push the frontiers of precision neutrino physics and paves the way for its broad scientific program. △ Less

Submitted 18 November, 2025; originally announced November 2025.

Comments: 30 pages, 11 figures

Initial performance results of the JUNO detector

Authors: Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Kai Adamowicz, David Adey, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Timo Ahola, Sebastiano Aiello, Fengpeng An, Guangpeng An, Costas Andreopoulos, Giuseppe Andronico, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Burin Asavapibhop, Didier Auguste, Margherita Buizza Avanzini, Andrej Babic, Jingzhi Bai, Weidong Bai, Nikita Balashov, Roberto Barbera, Andrea Barresi , et al. (1114 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) started physics data taking on 26 August 2025. JUNO consists of a 20-kton liquid scintillator central detector, surrounded by a 35 kton water pool serving as a Cherenkov veto, and almost 1000 m$^2$ of plastic scintillator veto on top. The detector is located in a shallow underground laboratory with an overburden of 1800 m.w.e. This paper present… ▽ More The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) started physics data taking on 26 August 2025. JUNO consists of a 20-kton liquid scintillator central detector, surrounded by a 35 kton water pool serving as a Cherenkov veto, and almost 1000 m$^2$ of plastic scintillator veto on top. The detector is located in a shallow underground laboratory with an overburden of 1800 m.w.e. This paper presents the performance results of the detector, extensively studied during the commissioning of the water phase, the subsequent liquid scintillator filling phase, and the first physics runs. The liquid scintillator achieved an attenuation length of 20.6 m at 430 nm, while the high coverage PMT system and scintillator together yielded about 1785 photoelectrons per MeV of energy deposit at the detector centre, measured using the 2.223 MeV $γ$ from neutron captures on hydrogen with an Am-C calibration source. The reconstructed energy resolution is 3.4% for two 0.511 MeV $γ$ at the detector centre and 2.9% for the 0.93 MeV quenched Po-214 alpha decays from natural radioactive sources. The energy nonlinearity is calibrated to better than 1%. Intrinsic contaminations of U-238 and Th-232 in the liquid scintillator are below 10$^{-16}$ g/g, assuming secular equilibrium. The water Cherenkov detector achieves a muon detection efficiency better than 99.9% for muons traversing the liquid scintillator volume. During the initial science runs, the data acquisition duty cycle exceeded 97.8%, demonstrating the excellent stability and readiness of JUNO for high-precision neutrino physics. △ Less

Submitted 18 November, 2025; originally announced November 2025.

Comments: 38 pages, 23 figures

Prospects for geoneutrino detection with JUNO

Authors: Thomas Adam, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Fengpeng An, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Costas Andreopoulos, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Didier Auguste, Marcel Büchner, Weidong Bai, Nikita Balashov, Andrea Barresi, Davide Basilico, Eric Baussan, Marco Beretta, Antonio Bergnoli, Nikita Bessonov, Daniel Bick, Lukas Bieger, Svetlana Biktemerova, Thilo Birkenfeld, Simon Blyth , et al. (605 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Geoneutrinos, which are antineutrinos emitted during the decay of long-lived radioactive elements inside Earth, serve as a unique tool for studying the composition and heat budget of our planet. The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) experiment in China, which has recently completed construction, is expected to collect a sample comparable in size to the entire existing world geoneutr… ▽ More Geoneutrinos, which are antineutrinos emitted during the decay of long-lived radioactive elements inside Earth, serve as a unique tool for studying the composition and heat budget of our planet. The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) experiment in China, which has recently completed construction, is expected to collect a sample comparable in size to the entire existing world geoneutrino dataset in less than a year. This paper presents an updated estimation of sensitivity to geoneutrinos of JUNO using the best knowledge available to date about the experimental site, the surrounding nuclear reactors, the detector response uncertainties, and the constraints expected from the TAO satellite detector. To facilitate comparison with present and future geological models, our results cover a wide range of predicted signal strengths. Despite the significant background from reactor antineutrinos, the experiment will measure the total geoneutrino flux with a precision comparable to that of existing experiments within its first few years, ultimately achieving a world-leading precision of about 8% over ten years. The large statistics of JUNO will also allow separation of the Uranium-238 and Thorium-232 contributions with unprecedented precision, providing crucial constraints on models of formation and composition of Earth. Observation of the mantle signal above the lithospheric flux will be possible but challenging. For models with the highest predicted mantle concentrations of heat-producing elements, a 3-sigma detection over six years requires knowledge of the lithospheric flux to within 15%. Together with complementary measurements from other locations, the geoneutrino results of JUNO will offer cutting-edge, high-precision insights into the interior of Earth, of fundamental importance to both the geoscience and neutrino physics communities. △ Less

Submitted 10 November, 2025; originally announced November 2025.

Comments: 32 pages, with 13 figures and 5 tables

Design, waterproofing, and mass production of the 3-inch PMT frontend system of JUNO

Authors: Jilei Xu, Miao He, Cédric Cerna, Yongbo Huang, Thomas Adam, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Fengpeng An, Costas Andreopoulos, Giuseppe Andronico, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Didier Auguste, Weidong Bai, Nikita Balashov, Andrea Barresi, Davide Basilico, Eric Baussan, Marco Beretta, Antonio Bergnoli, Nikita Bessonov, Daniel Bick, Lukas Bieger , et al. (609 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Over 25,600 3-inch photomultiplier tubes (PMTs) have been instrumented for the central detector of the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory. Each PMT is equipped with a high-voltage divider and a frontend cable with waterproof sealing. Groups of sixteen PMTs are connected to the underwater frontend readout electronics via specialized multi-channel waterproof connectors. This paper outlines th… ▽ More Over 25,600 3-inch photomultiplier tubes (PMTs) have been instrumented for the central detector of the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory. Each PMT is equipped with a high-voltage divider and a frontend cable with waterproof sealing. Groups of sixteen PMTs are connected to the underwater frontend readout electronics via specialized multi-channel waterproof connectors. This paper outlines the design and mass production processes for the high-voltage divider, the cable and connector, as well as the waterproof potting of the PMT bases. The results of the acceptance tests of all the integrated PMTs are also presented. △ Less

Submitted 22 January, 2026; v1 submitted 7 October, 2025; originally announced October 2025.

Measuring football fever through wearable technology: A case study on the German cup final

Authors: Timo Adam, Jonas Bauer, Christian Deutscher, Christiane Fuchs, Tamara Schamberger, David Winkelmann

Abstract: Football is the world's most popular sport, evoking strong physiological and emotional responses among its fans. Yet, the specific dynamics of fan attachment to matches have received little attention in the literature. In this paper, we quantify these dynamics through a unique case study from professional football: the 2025 cup final of the German Football Association (DFB) between first-division… ▽ More Football is the world's most popular sport, evoking strong physiological and emotional responses among its fans. Yet, the specific dynamics of fan attachment to matches have received little attention in the literature. In this paper, we quantify these dynamics through a unique case study from professional football: the 2025 cup final of the German Football Association (DFB) between first-division club VfB Stuttgart and third-division club Arminia Bielefeld. We collected high-resolution smartwatch data, including heart rate and stress level, from 229 Arminia Bielefeld fans over approximately 12 weeks, complemented by survey responses on club attachment, match attendance, and personal characteristics from a subset of 37 participants. By combining physiological data with survey information, we analyse variations in emotional engagement across individuals and contexts, as well as physiological reactions to key match events. This approach provides rare, data-driven insights into the football fever that captivates fans during high-stakes competitions. Furthermore, we compare the vital parameters recorded on the day of the match with baseline levels on non-matchdays throughout the entire observation period. Our findings reveal pronounced physiological responses among fans, beginning hours before the match and peaking at kick-off. △ Less

Submitted 9 February, 2026; v1 submitted 11 September, 2025; originally announced September 2025.

Simulation of the Background from $^{13}$C$(α, n)^{16}$O Reaction in the JUNO Scintillator

Authors: JUNO Collaboration, Thomas Adam, Kai Adamowicz, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Sebastiano Aiello, Fengpeng An, Costas Andreopoulos, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Weidong Bai, Nikita Balashov, Andrea Barresi, Davide Basilico, Eric Baussan, Marco Beretta, Antonio Bergnoli, Nikita Bessonov, Daniel Bick, Lukas Bieger, Svetlana Biktemerova , et al. (608 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Large-scale organic liquid scintillator detectors are highly efficient in the detection of MeV-scale electron antineutrinos. These signal events can be detected through inverse beta decay on protons, which produce a positron accompanied by a neutron. A noteworthy background for antineutrinos coming from nuclear power reactors and from the depths of the Earth (geoneutrinos) is generated by ($α, n$)… ▽ More Large-scale organic liquid scintillator detectors are highly efficient in the detection of MeV-scale electron antineutrinos. These signal events can be detected through inverse beta decay on protons, which produce a positron accompanied by a neutron. A noteworthy background for antineutrinos coming from nuclear power reactors and from the depths of the Earth (geoneutrinos) is generated by ($α, n$) reactions. In organic liquid scintillator detectors, $α$ particles emitted from intrinsic contaminants such as $^{238}$U, $^{232}$Th, and $^{210}$Pb/$^{210}$Po, can be captured on $^{13}$C nuclei, followed by the emission of a MeV-scale neutron. Three distinct interaction mechanisms can produce prompt energy depositions preceding the delayed neutron capture, leading to a pair of events correlated in space and time within the detector. Thus, ($α, n$) reactions represent an indistinguishable background in liquid scintillator-based antineutrino detectors, where their expected rate and energy spectrum are typically evaluated via Monte Carlo simulations. This work presents results from the open-source SaG4n software, used to calculate the expected energy depositions from the neutron and any associated de-excitation products. Also simulated is a detailed detector response to these interactions, using a dedicated Geant4-based simulation software from the JUNO experiment. An expected measurable $^{13}$C$(α, n)^{16}$O event rate and reconstructed prompt energy spectrum with associated uncertainties, are presented in the context of JUNO, however, the methods and results are applicable and relevant to other organic liquid scintillator neutrino detectors. △ Less

Submitted 2 May, 2025; v1 submitted 2 March, 2025; originally announced March 2025.

Comments: 25 pages, 14 figures, 4 tables

Manifold Quadratic Penalty Alternating Minimization for Sparse Principal Component Analysis

Authors: Tarmizi Adam

Abstract: Optimization on the Stiefel manifold or with orthogonality constraints is an important problem in many signal processing and data analysis applications such as Sparse Principal Component Analysis (SPCA). Algorithms such as the Riemannian proximal gradient algorithms addressing this problem usually involve an intricate subproblem requiring a semi-smooth Newton method hence, simple and effective ope… ▽ More Optimization on the Stiefel manifold or with orthogonality constraints is an important problem in many signal processing and data analysis applications such as Sparse Principal Component Analysis (SPCA). Algorithms such as the Riemannian proximal gradient algorithms addressing this problem usually involve an intricate subproblem requiring a semi-smooth Newton method hence, simple and effective operator splitting methods extended to the manifold setting such as the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) have been proposed. However, another simple operator-splitting method, the Quadratic Penalty Alternating Minimization (QPAM) method which has been successful in image processing to our knowledge, has not yet been extended to the manifold setting. In this paper, we propose a manifold QPAM (MQPAM) which is very simple to implement. The iterative scheme of the MQPAM consists of a Riemannian Gradient Descent (RGD) subproblem and a subproblem in the form of a proximal operator which has a closed-form solution. Experiments on the SPCA problem show that our proposed MQPAM is at par with or better than several other algorithms in terms of sparsity and CPU time. △ Less

Submitted 10 November, 2024; originally announced November 2024.

Comments: I am seeking collaboration for this paper on several aspects. If you are interested, please email me at tarmizi.adam@utm.my for more discussions

Tran-GCN: A Transformer-Enhanced Graph Convolutional Network for Person Re-Identification in Monitoring Videos

Authors: Xiaobin Hong, Tarmizi Adam, Masitah Ghazali

Abstract: Person Re-Identification (Re-ID) has gained popularity in computer vision, enabling cross-camera pedestrian recognition. Although the development of deep learning has provided a robust technical foundation for person Re-ID research, most existing person Re-ID methods overlook the potential relationships among local person features, failing to adequately address the impact of pedestrian pose variat… ▽ More Person Re-Identification (Re-ID) has gained popularity in computer vision, enabling cross-camera pedestrian recognition. Although the development of deep learning has provided a robust technical foundation for person Re-ID research, most existing person Re-ID methods overlook the potential relationships among local person features, failing to adequately address the impact of pedestrian pose variations and local body parts occlusion. Therefore, we propose a Transformer-enhanced Graph Convolutional Network (Tran-GCN) model to improve Person Re-Identification performance in monitoring videos. The model comprises four key components: (1) A Pose Estimation Learning branch is utilized to estimate pedestrian pose information and inherent skeletal structure data, extracting pedestrian key point information; (2) A Transformer learning branch learns the global dependencies between fine-grained and semantically meaningful local person features; (3) A Convolution learning branch uses the basic ResNet architecture to extract the person's fine-grained local features; (4) A Graph Convolutional Module (GCM) integrates local feature information, global feature information, and body information for more effective person identification after fusion. Quantitative and qualitative analysis experiments conducted on three different datasets (Market-1501, DukeMTMC-ReID, and MSMT17) demonstrate that the Tran-GCN model can more accurately capture discriminative person features in monitoring videos, significantly improving identification accuracy. △ Less

Submitted 14 September, 2024; originally announced September 2024.

Potential to identify neutrino mass ordering with reactor antineutrinos at JUNO

Authors: JUNO Collaboration, Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Sebastiano Aiello, Muhammad Akram, Abid Aleem, Fengpeng An, Qi An, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Burin Asavapibhop, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Weidong Bai, Nikita Balashov, Wander Baldini, Andrea Barresi, Davide Basilico, Eric Baussan, Marco Bellato, Marco Beretta , et al. (605 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a multi-purpose neutrino experiment under construction in South China. This paper presents an updated estimate of JUNO's sensitivity to neutrino mass ordering using the reactor antineutrinos emitted from eight nuclear reactor cores in the Taishan and Yangjiang nuclear power plants. This measurement is planned by studying the fine interference… ▽ More The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a multi-purpose neutrino experiment under construction in South China. This paper presents an updated estimate of JUNO's sensitivity to neutrino mass ordering using the reactor antineutrinos emitted from eight nuclear reactor cores in the Taishan and Yangjiang nuclear power plants. This measurement is planned by studying the fine interference pattern caused by quasi-vacuum oscillations in the oscillated antineutrino spectrum at a baseline of 52.5~km and is completely independent of the CP violating phase and neutrino mixing angle $θ_{23}$. The sensitivity is obtained through a joint analysis of JUNO and Taishan Antineutrino Observatory (TAO) detectors utilizing the best available knowledge to date about the location and overburden of the JUNO experimental site, local and global nuclear reactors, JUNO and TAO detector responses, expected event rates and spectra of signals and backgrounds, and systematic uncertainties of analysis inputs. We find that a 3$σ$ median sensitivity to reject the wrong mass ordering hypothesis can be reached with an exposure to approximately 6.5 years $\times$ 26.6 GW thermal power. △ Less

Submitted 11 February, 2025; v1 submitted 28 May, 2024; originally announced May 2024.

Comments: The version published on Chinese Physics C

Prediction of Energy Resolution in the JUNO Experiment

Authors: JUNO Collaboration, Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Kai Adamowicz, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Sebastiano Aiello, Fengpeng An, Qi An, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Weidong Bai, Nikita Balashov, Wander Baldini, Andrea Barresi, Davide Basilico, Eric Baussan, Marco Bellato, Marco Beretta, Antonio Bergnoli, Daniel Bick , et al. (629 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: This paper presents an energy resolution study of the JUNO experiment, incorporating the latest knowledge acquired during the detector construction phase. The determination of neutrino mass ordering in JUNO requires an exceptional energy resolution better than 3\% at 1~MeV. To achieve this ambitious goal, significant efforts have been undertaken in the design and production of the key components o… ▽ More This paper presents an energy resolution study of the JUNO experiment, incorporating the latest knowledge acquired during the detector construction phase. The determination of neutrino mass ordering in JUNO requires an exceptional energy resolution better than 3\% at 1~MeV. To achieve this ambitious goal, significant efforts have been undertaken in the design and production of the key components of the JUNO detector. Various factors affecting the detection of inverse beta decay signals have an impact on the energy resolution, extending beyond the statistical fluctuations of the detected number of photons, such as the properties of the liquid scintillator, performance of photomultiplier tubes, and the energy reconstruction algorithm. To account for these effects, a full JUNO simulation and reconstruction approach is employed. This enables the modeling of all relevant effects and the evaluation of associated inputs to accurately estimate the energy resolution. The results of study reveal an energy resolution of 2.95\% at 1~MeV. Furthermore, this study assesses the contribution of major effects to the overall energy resolution budget. This analysis serves as a reference for interpreting future measurements of energy resolution during JUNO data collection. Moreover, it provides a guideline for comprehending the energy resolution characteristics of liquid scintillator-based detectors. △ Less

Submitted 9 January, 2025; v1 submitted 28 May, 2024; originally announced May 2024.

Journal ref: Chinese Phys. C 49 013003 (2025)

JUNO Sensitivity to Invisible Decay Modes of Neutrons

Authors: JUNO Collaboration, Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Kai Adamowicz, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Sebastiano Aiello, Fengpeng An, Qi An, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Weidong Bai, Nikita Balashov, Wander Baldini, Andrea Barresi, Davide Basilico, Eric Baussan, Marco Bellato, Marco Beretta, Antonio Bergnoli, Daniel Bick , et al. (635 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: We explore the decay of bound neutrons into invisible particles (e.g., $n\rightarrow 3 ν$ or $nn \rightarrow 2 ν$) in the JUNO liquid scintillator detector, which do not produce an observable signal. The invisible decay includes two decay modes: $ n \rightarrow { inv} $ and $ nn \rightarrow { inv} $. The invisible decays of $s$-shell neutrons in $^{12}{\rm C}$ will leave a highly excited residual… ▽ More We explore the decay of bound neutrons into invisible particles (e.g., $n\rightarrow 3 ν$ or $nn \rightarrow 2 ν$) in the JUNO liquid scintillator detector, which do not produce an observable signal. The invisible decay includes two decay modes: $ n \rightarrow { inv} $ and $ nn \rightarrow { inv} $. The invisible decays of $s$-shell neutrons in $^{12}{\rm C}$ will leave a highly excited residual nucleus. Subsequently, some de-excitation modes of the excited residual nuclei can produce a time- and space-correlated triple coincidence signal in the JUNO detector. Based on a full Monte Carlo simulation informed with the latest available data, we estimate all backgrounds, including inverse beta decay events of the reactor antineutrino $\barν_e$, natural radioactivity, cosmogenic isotopes and neutral current interactions of atmospheric neutrinos. Pulse shape discrimination and multivariate analysis techniques are employed to further suppress backgrounds. With two years of exposure, JUNO is expected to give an order of magnitude improvement compared to the current best limits. After 10 years of data taking, the JUNO expected sensitivities at a 90% confidence level are $τ/B( n \rightarrow { inv} ) > 5.0 \times 10^{31} \, {\rm yr}$ and $τ/B( nn \rightarrow { inv} ) > 1.4 \times 10^{32} \, {\rm yr}$. △ Less

Submitted 26 February, 2025; v1 submitted 27 May, 2024; originally announced May 2024.

Comments: 31 pages, 10 figures, 4 tables, Published version in EPJC

Real-time Monitoring for the Next Core-Collapse Supernova in JUNO

Authors: Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Sebastiano Aiello, Muhammad Akram, Abid Aleem, Fengpeng An, Qi An, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Burin Asavapibhop, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Weidong Bai, Nikita Balashov, Wander Baldini, Andrea Barresi, Davide Basilico, Eric Baussan, Marco Bellato, Marco Beretta, Antonio Bergnoli , et al. (606 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The core-collapse supernova (CCSN) is considered one of the most energetic astrophysical events in the universe. The early and prompt detection of neutrinos before (pre-SN) and during the supernova (SN) burst presents a unique opportunity for multi-messenger observations of CCSN events. In this study, we describe the monitoring concept and present the sensitivity of the system to pre-SN and SN neu… ▽ More The core-collapse supernova (CCSN) is considered one of the most energetic astrophysical events in the universe. The early and prompt detection of neutrinos before (pre-SN) and during the supernova (SN) burst presents a unique opportunity for multi-messenger observations of CCSN events. In this study, we describe the monitoring concept and present the sensitivity of the system to pre-SN and SN neutrinos at the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), a 20 kton liquid scintillator detector currently under construction in South China. The real-time monitoring system is designed to ensure both prompt alert speed and comprehensive coverage of progenitor stars. It incorporates prompt monitors on the electronic board as well as online monitors at the data acquisition stage. Assuming a false alert rate of 1 per year, this monitoring system exhibits sensitivity to pre-SN neutrinos up to a distance of approximately 1.6 (0.9) kiloparsecs and SN neutrinos up to about 370 (360) kiloparsecs for a progenitor mass of 30 solar masses, considering both normal and inverted mass ordering scenarios. The pointing ability of the CCSN is evaluated by analyzing the accumulated event anisotropy of inverse beta decay interactions from pre-SN or SN neutrinos. This, along with the early alert, can play a crucial role in facilitating follow-up multi-messenger observations of the next galactic or nearby extragalactic CCSN. △ Less

Submitted 4 December, 2023; v1 submitted 13 September, 2023; originally announced September 2023.

Comments: 24 pages, 9 figures, accepted for the publication at JCAP

Accelerated Proximal Iterative re-Weighted $\ell_1$ Alternating Minimization for Image Deblurring

Authors: Tarmizi Adam, Alexander Malyshev, Mohd Fikree Hassan, Nur Syarafina Mohamed, Md Sah Hj Salam

Abstract: The quadratic penalty alternating minimization (AM) method is widely used for solving the convex $\ell_1$ total variation (TV) image deblurring problem. However, quadratic penalty AM for solving the nonconvex nonsmooth $\ell_p$, $0 < p < 1$ TV image deblurring problems is less studied. In this paper, we propose two algorithms, namely proximal iterative re-weighted $\ell_1$ AM (PIRL1-AM) and its ac… ▽ More The quadratic penalty alternating minimization (AM) method is widely used for solving the convex $\ell_1$ total variation (TV) image deblurring problem. However, quadratic penalty AM for solving the nonconvex nonsmooth $\ell_p$, $0 < p < 1$ TV image deblurring problems is less studied. In this paper, we propose two algorithms, namely proximal iterative re-weighted $\ell_1$ AM (PIRL1-AM) and its accelerated version, accelerated proximal iterative re-weighted $\ell_1$ AM (APIRL1-AM) for solving the nonconvex nonsmooth $\ell_p$ TV image deblurring problem. The proposed algorithms are derived from the proximal iterative re-weighted $\ell_1$ (IRL1) algorithm and the proximal gradient algorithm. Numerical results show that PIRL1-AM is effective in retaining sharp edges in image deblurring while APIRL1-AM can further provide convergence speed up in terms of the number of algorithm iterations and computational time. △ Less

Submitted 10 September, 2023; originally announced September 2023.

JUNO sensitivity to the annihilation of MeV dark matter in the galactic halo

Authors: JUNO Collaboration, Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Sebastiano Aiello, Muhammad Akram, Abid Aleem, Tsagkarakis Alexandros, Fengpeng An, Qi An, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Burin Asavapibhop, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Weidong Bai, Nikita Balashov, Wander Baldini, Andrea Barresi, Davide Basilico, Eric Baussan, Marco Bellato , et al. (581 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: We discuss JUNO sensitivity to the annihilation of MeV dark matter in the galactic halo via detecting inverse beta decay reactions of electron anti-neutrinos resulting from the annihilation. We study possible backgrounds to the signature, including the reactor neutrinos, diffuse supernova neutrino background, charged- and neutral-current interactions of atmospheric neutrinos, backgrounds from muon… ▽ More We discuss JUNO sensitivity to the annihilation of MeV dark matter in the galactic halo via detecting inverse beta decay reactions of electron anti-neutrinos resulting from the annihilation. We study possible backgrounds to the signature, including the reactor neutrinos, diffuse supernova neutrino background, charged- and neutral-current interactions of atmospheric neutrinos, backgrounds from muon-induced fast neutrons and cosmogenic isotopes. A fiducial volume cut, as well as the pulse shape discrimination and the muon veto are applied to suppress the above backgrounds. It is shown that JUNO sensitivity to the thermally averaged dark matter annihilation rate in 10 years of exposure would be significantly better than the present-day best limit set by Super-Kamiokande and would be comparable to that expected by Hyper-Kamiokande. △ Less

Submitted 13 September, 2023; v1 submitted 15 June, 2023; originally announced June 2023.

Comments: 25 pages, 9 figures, matches the publised version

Journal ref: JCAP 09 (2023) 001

The JUNO experiment Top Tracker

Authors: JUNO Collaboration, Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Sebastiano Aiello, Muhammad Akram, Abid Aleem, Tsagkarakis Alexandros, Fengpeng An, Qi An, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Burin Asavapibhop, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Weidong Bai, Nikita Balashov, Wander Baldini, Andrea Barresi, Davide Basilico, Eric Baussan, Marco Bellato , et al. (592 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The main task of the Top Tracker detector of the neutrino reactor experiment Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is to reconstruct and extrapolate atmospheric muon tracks down to the central detector. This muon tracker will help to evaluate the contribution of the cosmogenic background to the signal. The Top Tracker is located above JUNO's water Cherenkov Detector and Central Detector… ▽ More The main task of the Top Tracker detector of the neutrino reactor experiment Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is to reconstruct and extrapolate atmospheric muon tracks down to the central detector. This muon tracker will help to evaluate the contribution of the cosmogenic background to the signal. The Top Tracker is located above JUNO's water Cherenkov Detector and Central Detector, covering about 60% of the surface above them. The JUNO Top Tracker is constituted by the decommissioned OPERA experiment Target Tracker modules. The technology used consists in walls of two planes of plastic scintillator strips, one per transverse direction. Wavelength shifting fibres collect the light signal emitted by the scintillator strips and guide it to both ends where it is read by multianode photomultiplier tubes. Compared to the OPERA Target Tracker, the JUNO Top Tracker uses new electronics able to cope with the high rate produced by the high rock radioactivity compared to the one in Gran Sasso underground laboratory. This paper will present the new electronics and mechanical structure developed for the Top Tracker of JUNO along with its expected performance based on the current detector simulation. △ Less

Submitted 9 March, 2023; originally announced March 2023.

Comments: 20 pages

Journal ref: Nucl.Instrum.Meth.A 1057 (2023) 168680

JUNO sensitivity to $^7$Be, $pep$, and CNO solar neutrinos

Authors: Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Sebastiano Aiello, Muhammad Akram, Abid Aleem, Tsagkarakis Alexandros, Fengpeng An, Qi An, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Burin Asavapibhop, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Weidong Bai, Nikita Balashov, Wander Baldini, Andrea Barresi, Davide Basilico, Eric Baussan, Marco Bellato, Marco Beretta , et al. (592 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), the first multi-kton liquid scintillator detector, which is under construction in China, will have a unique potential to perform a real-time measurement of solar neutrinos well below the few MeV threshold typical for Water Cherenkov detectors. JUNO's large target mass and excellent energy resolution are prerequisites for reaching unprecedented… ▽ More The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), the first multi-kton liquid scintillator detector, which is under construction in China, will have a unique potential to perform a real-time measurement of solar neutrinos well below the few MeV threshold typical for Water Cherenkov detectors. JUNO's large target mass and excellent energy resolution are prerequisites for reaching unprecedented levels of precision. In this paper, we provide estimation of the JUNO sensitivity to 7Be, pep, and CNO solar neutrinos that can be obtained via a spectral analysis above the 0.45 MeV threshold. This study is performed assuming different scenarios of the liquid scintillator radiopurity, ranging from the most opti mistic one corresponding to the radiopurity levels obtained by the Borexino experiment, up to the minimum requirements needed to perform the neutrino mass ordering determination with reactor antineutrinos - the main goal of JUNO. Our study shows that in most scenarios, JUNO will be able to improve the current best measurements on 7Be, pep, and CNO solar neutrino fluxes. We also perform a study on the JUNO capability to detect periodical time variations in the solar neutrino flux, such as the day-night modulation induced by neutrino flavor regeneration in Earth, and the modulations induced by temperature changes driven by helioseismic waves. △ Less

Submitted 7 March, 2023; originally announced March 2023.

JUNO Sensitivity on Proton Decay $p\to \barνK^+$ Searches

Authors: JUNO Collaboration, Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Sebastiano Aiello, Muhammad Akram, Fengpeng An, Qi An, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Burin Asavapibhop, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Nikita Balashov, Wander Baldini, Andrea Barresi, Davide Basilico, Eric Baussan, Marco Bellato, Antonio Bergnoli, Thilo Birkenfeld, Sylvie Blin , et al. (586 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a large liquid scintillator detector designed to explore many topics in fundamental physics. In this paper, the potential on searching for proton decay in $p\to \barνK^+$ mode with JUNO is investigated.The kaon and its decay particles feature a clear three-fold coincidence signature that results in a high efficiency for identification. Moreov… ▽ More The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a large liquid scintillator detector designed to explore many topics in fundamental physics. In this paper, the potential on searching for proton decay in $p\to \barνK^+$ mode with JUNO is investigated.The kaon and its decay particles feature a clear three-fold coincidence signature that results in a high efficiency for identification. Moreover, the excellent energy resolution of JUNO permits to suppress the sizable background caused by other delayed signals. Based on these advantages, the detection efficiency for the proton decay via $p\to \barνK^+$ is 36.9% with a background level of 0.2 events after 10 years of data taking. The estimated sensitivity based on 200 kton-years exposure is $9.6 \times 10^{33}$ years, competitive with the current best limits on the proton lifetime in this channel. △ Less

Submitted 26 October, 2023; v1 submitted 16 December, 2022; originally announced December 2022.

Comments: 14 pages, 12 figures, an author added

Model Independent Approach of the JUNO $^8$B Solar Neutrino Program

Authors: JUNO Collaboration, Jie Zhao, Baobiao Yue, Haoqi Lu, Yufeng Li, Jiajie Ling, Zeyuan Yu, Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Sebastiano Aiello, Muhammad Akram, Abid Aleem, Tsagkarakis Alexandros, Fengpeng An, Qi An, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Burin Asavapibhop, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Weidong Bai , et al. (579 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The physics potential of detecting $^8$B solar neutrinos will be exploited at the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), in a model independent manner by using three distinct channels of the charged-current (CC), neutral-current (NC) and elastic scattering (ES) interactions. Due to the largest-ever mass of $^{13}$C nuclei in the liquid-scintillator detectors and the {expected} low backg… ▽ More The physics potential of detecting $^8$B solar neutrinos will be exploited at the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), in a model independent manner by using three distinct channels of the charged-current (CC), neutral-current (NC) and elastic scattering (ES) interactions. Due to the largest-ever mass of $^{13}$C nuclei in the liquid-scintillator detectors and the {expected} low background level, $^8$B solar neutrinos would be observable in the CC and NC interactions on $^{13}$C for the first time. By virtue of optimized event selections and muon veto strategies, backgrounds from the accidental coincidence, muon-induced isotopes, and external backgrounds can be greatly suppressed. Excellent signal-to-background ratios can be achieved in the CC, NC and ES channels to guarantee the $^8$B solar neutrino observation. From the sensitivity studies performed in this work, we show that JUNO, with ten years of data, can reach the {1$σ$} precision levels of 5%, 8% and 20% for the $^8$B neutrino flux, $\sin^2θ_{12}$, and $Δm^2_{21}$, respectively. It would be unique and helpful to probe the details of both solar physics and neutrino physics. In addition, when combined with SNO, the world-best precision of 3% is expected for the $^8$B neutrino flux measurement. △ Less

Submitted 6 March, 2024; v1 submitted 15 October, 2022; originally announced October 2022.

Comments: 19 pages, 7 figures, accepted version to appear in The Astrophysical Journal. Yufeng Li and Jiajie Ling are corresponding authors

Journal ref: Astrophysical Journal 965 (2024) 122

The Athena X-ray Integral Field Unit: a consolidated design for the system requirement review of the preliminary definition phase

Authors: Didier Barret, Vincent Albouys, Jan-Willem den Herder, Luigi Piro, Massimo Cappi, Juhani Huovelin, Richard Kelley, J. Miguel Mas-Hesse, Stéphane Paltani, Gregor Rauw, Agata Rozanska, Jiri Svoboda, Joern Wilms, Noriko Yamasaki, Marc Audard, Simon Bandler, Marco Barbera, Xavier Barcons, Enrico Bozzo, Maria Teresa Ceballos, Ivan Charles, Elisa Costantini, Thomas Dauser, Anne Decourchelle, Lionel Duband , et al. (274 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The Athena X-ray Integral Unit (X-IFU) is the high resolution X-ray spectrometer, studied since 2015 for flying in the mid-30s on the Athena space X-ray Observatory, a versatile observatory designed to address the Hot and Energetic Universe science theme, selected in November 2013 by the Survey Science Committee. Based on a large format array of Transition Edge Sensors (TES), it aims to provide sp… ▽ More The Athena X-ray Integral Unit (X-IFU) is the high resolution X-ray spectrometer, studied since 2015 for flying in the mid-30s on the Athena space X-ray Observatory, a versatile observatory designed to address the Hot and Energetic Universe science theme, selected in November 2013 by the Survey Science Committee. Based on a large format array of Transition Edge Sensors (TES), it aims to provide spatially resolved X-ray spectroscopy, with a spectral resolution of 2.5 eV (up to 7 keV) over an hexagonal field of view of 5 arc minutes (equivalent diameter). The X-IFU entered its System Requirement Review (SRR) in June 2022, at about the same time when ESA called for an overall X-IFU redesign (including the X-IFU cryostat and the cooling chain), due to an unanticipated cost overrun of Athena. In this paper, after illustrating the breakthrough capabilities of the X-IFU, we describe the instrument as presented at its SRR, browsing through all the subsystems and associated requirements. We then show the instrument budgets, with a particular emphasis on the anticipated budgets of some of its key performance parameters. Finally we briefly discuss on the ongoing key technology demonstration activities, the calibration and the activities foreseen in the X-IFU Instrument Science Center, and touch on communication and outreach activities, the consortium organisation, and finally on the life cycle assessment of X-IFU aiming at minimising the environmental footprint, associated with the development of the instrument. Thanks to the studies conducted so far on X-IFU, it is expected that along the design-to-cost exercise requested by ESA, the X-IFU will maintain flagship capabilities in spatially resolved high resolution X-ray spectroscopy, enabling most of the original X-IFU related scientific objectives of the Athena mission to be retained. (abridged). △ Less

Submitted 28 November, 2022; v1 submitted 30 August, 2022; originally announced August 2022.

Comments: 48 pages, 29 figures, Accepted for publication in Experimental Astronomy with minor editing

Prospects for Detecting the Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background with JUNO

Authors: JUNO Collaboration, Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Sebastiano Aiello, Muhammad Akram, Fengpeng An, Qi An, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Burin Asavapibhop, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Nikita Balashov, Wander Baldini, Andrea Barresi, Davide Basilico, Eric Baussan, Marco Bellato, Antonio Bergnoli, Thilo Birkenfeld, Sylvie Blin , et al. (577 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: We present the detection potential for the diffuse supernova neutrino background (DSNB) at the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), using the inverse-beta-decay (IBD) detection channel on free protons. We employ the latest information on the DSNB flux predictions, and investigate in detail the background and its reduction for the DSNB search at JUNO. The atmospheric neutrino induced n… ▽ More We present the detection potential for the diffuse supernova neutrino background (DSNB) at the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), using the inverse-beta-decay (IBD) detection channel on free protons. We employ the latest information on the DSNB flux predictions, and investigate in detail the background and its reduction for the DSNB search at JUNO. The atmospheric neutrino induced neutral current (NC) background turns out to be the most critical background, whose uncertainty is carefully evaluated from both the spread of model predictions and an envisaged \textit{in situ} measurement. We also make a careful study on the background suppression with the pulse shape discrimination (PSD) and triple coincidence (TC) cuts. With latest DSNB signal predictions, more realistic background evaluation and PSD efficiency optimization, and additional TC cut, JUNO can reach the significance of 3$σ$ for 3 years of data taking, and achieve better than 5$σ$ after 10 years for a reference DSNB model. In the pessimistic scenario of non-observation, JUNO would strongly improve the limits and exclude a significant region of the model parameter space. △ Less

Submitted 13 October, 2022; v1 submitted 18 May, 2022; originally announced May 2022.

Comments: 29 pages, 11 figures, final published version in JCAP

Journal ref: JCAP 10 (2022) 033

Mass Testing and Characterization of 20-inch PMTs for JUNO

Authors: Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Sebastiano Aiello, Muhammad Akram, Abid Aleem, Tsagkarakis Alexandros, Fengpeng An, Qi An, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Burin Asavapibhop, Joao Pedro Athayde Marcondes de Andre, Didier Auguste, Weidong Bai, Nikita Balashov, Wander Baldini, Andrea Barresi, Davide Basilico, Eric Baussan, Marco Bellato, Antonio Bergnoli , et al. (541 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Main goal of the JUNO experiment is to determine the neutrino mass ordering using a 20kt liquid-scintillator detector. Its key feature is an excellent energy resolution of at least 3 % at 1 MeV, for which its instruments need to meet a certain quality and thus have to be fully characterized. More than 20,000 20-inch PMTs have been received and assessed by JUNO after a detailed testing program whic… ▽ More Main goal of the JUNO experiment is to determine the neutrino mass ordering using a 20kt liquid-scintillator detector. Its key feature is an excellent energy resolution of at least 3 % at 1 MeV, for which its instruments need to meet a certain quality and thus have to be fully characterized. More than 20,000 20-inch PMTs have been received and assessed by JUNO after a detailed testing program which began in 2017 and elapsed for about four years. Based on this mass characterization and a set of specific requirements, a good quality of all accepted PMTs could be ascertained. This paper presents the performed testing procedure with the designed testing systems as well as the statistical characteristics of all 20-inch PMTs intended to be used in the JUNO experiment, covering more than fifteen performance parameters including the photocathode uniformity. This constitutes the largest sample of 20-inch PMTs ever produced and studied in detail to date, i.e. 15,000 of the newly developed 20-inch MCP-PMTs from Northern Night Vision Technology Co. (NNVT) and 5,000 of dynode PMTs from Hamamatsu Photonics K. K.(HPK). △ Less

Submitted 17 September, 2022; v1 submitted 17 May, 2022; originally announced May 2022.

Sub-percent Precision Measurement of Neutrino Oscillation Parameters with JUNO

Authors: JUNO Collaboration, Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Sebastiano Aiello, Muhammad Akram, Abid Aleem, Tsagkarakis Alexandros, Fengpeng An, Qi An, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Burin Asavapibhop, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Weidong Bai, Nikita Balashov, Wander Baldini, Andrea Barresi, Davide Basilico, Eric Baussan, Marco Bellato , et al. (581 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: JUNO is a multi-purpose neutrino observatory under construction in the south of China. This publication presents new sensitivity estimates for the measurement of the $Δm^2_{31}$, $Δm^2_{21}$, $\sin^2 θ_{12}$, and $\sin^2 θ_{13}$ oscillation parameters using reactor antineutrinos, which is one of the primary physics goals of the experiment. The sensitivities are obtained using the best knowledge av… ▽ More JUNO is a multi-purpose neutrino observatory under construction in the south of China. This publication presents new sensitivity estimates for the measurement of the $Δm^2_{31}$, $Δm^2_{21}$, $\sin^2 θ_{12}$, and $\sin^2 θ_{13}$ oscillation parameters using reactor antineutrinos, which is one of the primary physics goals of the experiment. The sensitivities are obtained using the best knowledge available to date on the location and overburden of the experimental site, the nuclear reactors in the surrounding area and beyond, the detector response uncertainties, and the reactor antineutrino spectral shape constraints expected from the TAO satellite detector. It is found that the $Δm^2_{31}$, $Δm^2_{21}$, and $\sin^2 θ_{12}$ oscillation parameters will be determined to better than 0.5% precision in six years of data collection, which represents approximately an order of magnitude improvement over existing constraints. △ Less

Submitted 27 April, 2022; originally announced April 2022.

Comments: 29 pages, 10 figures, submitted to Chinese Physics C

Design and Commissioning of the first two CYRCé Extension Beamlines

Authors: E. Bouquerel, E. Traykov, C. Maazouzi, M. Rousseau, M. Pellicioli, J. Andrea, T. Adam, P. Graehling, C. Mathieu, G. Heitz, M. Krauth, D. Oster, T. Foehrenbacher, C. Ruescas, J. Schuler, U. Goerlach, C. Haas

Abstract: CYRCé is a TR24 cyclotron installed at the Institut Pluridisciplinaire Hubert Curien (IPHC) of Strasbourg operating at energies of 16-25 MeV and at intensities up to 400 $μ$A. The accelerator is used to produce and provide radioelements for PET and for SPECT. In 2015, IPHC started to develop a platform with the aim of performing radiobiological experiments. The PRECy platform foresees to contain t… ▽ More CYRCé is a TR24 cyclotron installed at the Institut Pluridisciplinaire Hubert Curien (IPHC) of Strasbourg operating at energies of 16-25 MeV and at intensities up to 400 $μ$A. The accelerator is used to produce and provide radioelements for PET and for SPECT. In 2015, IPHC started to develop a platform with the aim of performing radiobiological experiments. The PRECy platform foresees to contain three-to-five experimental stations linked to beamlines expanded from the second exit port of the cyclotron. This extension allows devoting one of the beamlines for detector studies within the framework of the CMS project. The design, the development and the commissioning of the first two beamlines are discussed in this paper. △ Less

Submitted 26 January, 2022; originally announced January 2022.

Comments: 23 pages, 25 figures

Damping signatures at JUNO, a medium-baseline reactor neutrino oscillation experiment

Authors: JUNO collaboration, Jun Wang, Jiajun Liao, Wei Wang, Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Sebastiano Aiello, Muhammad Akram, Fengpeng An, Qi An, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Burin Asavapibhop, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Andrej Babic, Nikita Balashov, Wander Baldini, Andrea Barresi, Davide Basilico, Eric Baussan , et al. (582 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: We study damping signatures at the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), a medium-baseline reactor neutrino oscillation experiment. These damping signatures are motivated by various new physics models, including quantum decoherence, $ν_3$ decay, neutrino absorption, and wave packet decoherence. The phenomenological effects of these models can be characterized by exponential damping fac… ▽ More We study damping signatures at the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), a medium-baseline reactor neutrino oscillation experiment. These damping signatures are motivated by various new physics models, including quantum decoherence, $ν_3$ decay, neutrino absorption, and wave packet decoherence. The phenomenological effects of these models can be characterized by exponential damping factors at the probability level. We assess how well JUNO can constrain these damping parameters and how to disentangle these different damping signatures at JUNO. Compared to current experimental limits, JUNO can significantly improve the limits on $τ_3/m_3$ in the $ν_3$ decay model, the width of the neutrino wave packet $σ_x$, and the intrinsic relative dispersion of neutrino momentum $σ_{\rm rel}$. △ Less

Submitted 14 June, 2022; v1 submitted 29 December, 2021; originally announced December 2021.

Comments: 17 pages, 2 figures, 4 tables. Version published in JHEP

Journal ref: JHEP06(2022)062

Radioactivity control strategy for the JUNO detector

Authors: JUNO collaboration, Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Sebastiano Aiello, Muhammad Akram, Fengpeng An, Qi An, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Burin Asavapibhop, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Andrej Babic, Wander Baldini, Andrea Barresi, Davide Basilico, Eric Baussan, Marco Bellato, Antonio Bergnoli, Thilo Birkenfeld, Sylvie Blin , et al. (578 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: JUNO is a massive liquid scintillator detector with a primary scientific goal of determining the neutrino mass ordering by studying the oscillated anti-neutrino flux coming from two nuclear power plants at 53 km distance. The expected signal anti-neutrino interaction rate is only 60 counts per day, therefore a careful control of the background sources due to radioactivity is critical. In particula… ▽ More JUNO is a massive liquid scintillator detector with a primary scientific goal of determining the neutrino mass ordering by studying the oscillated anti-neutrino flux coming from two nuclear power plants at 53 km distance. The expected signal anti-neutrino interaction rate is only 60 counts per day, therefore a careful control of the background sources due to radioactivity is critical. In particular, natural radioactivity present in all materials and in the environment represents a serious issue that could impair the sensitivity of the experiment if appropriate countermeasures were not foreseen. In this paper we discuss the background reduction strategies undertaken by the JUNO collaboration to reduce at minimum the impact of natural radioactivity. We describe our efforts for an optimized experimental design, a careful material screening and accurate detector production handling, and a constant control of the expected results through a meticulous Monte Carlo simulation program. We show that all these actions should allow us to keep the background count rate safely below the target value of 10 Hz in the default fiducial volume, above an energy threshold of 0.7 MeV. △ Less

Submitted 13 October, 2021; v1 submitted 8 July, 2021; originally announced July 2021.

Comments: 35 pages, 12 figures

Discovering novel drug-supplement interactions using a dietary supplements knowledge graph generated from the biomedical literature

Authors: Dalton Schutte, Jake Vasilakes, Anu Bompelli, Yuqi Zhou, Marcelo Fiszman, Hua Xu, Halil Kilicoglu, Jeffrey R. Bishop, Terrence Adam, Rui Zhang

Abstract: OBJECTIVE: Leverage existing biomedical NLP tools and DS domain terminology to produce a novel and comprehensive knowledge graph containing dietary supplement (DS) information for discovering interactions between DS and drugs, or Drug-Supplement Interactions (DSI). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We created SemRepDS (an extension of SemRep), capable of extracting semantic relations from abstracts by levera… ▽ More OBJECTIVE: Leverage existing biomedical NLP tools and DS domain terminology to produce a novel and comprehensive knowledge graph containing dietary supplement (DS) information for discovering interactions between DS and drugs, or Drug-Supplement Interactions (DSI). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We created SemRepDS (an extension of SemRep), capable of extracting semantic relations from abstracts by leveraging a DS-specific terminology (iDISK) containing 28,884 DS terms not found in the UMLS. PubMed abstracts were processed using SemRepDS to generate semantic relations, which were then filtered using a PubMedBERT-based model to remove incorrect relations before generating our knowledge graph (SuppKG). Two pathways are used to identify potential DS-Drug interactions which are then evaluated by medical professionals for mechanistic plausibility. RESULTS: Comparison analysis found that SemRepDS returned 206.9% more DS relations and 158.5% more DS entities than SemRep. The fine-tuned BERT model obtained an F1 score of 0.8605 and removed 43.86% of the relations, improving the precision of the relations by 26.4% compared to pre-filtering. SuppKG consists of 2,928 DS-specific nodes. Manual review of findings identified 44 (88%) proposed DS-Gene-Drug and 32 (64%) proposed DS-Gene1-Function-Gene2-Drug pathways to be mechanistically plausible. DISCUSSION: The additional relations extracted using SemRepDS generated SuppKG that was used to find plausible DSI not found in the current literature. By the nature of the SuppKG, these interactions are unlikely to have been found using SemRep without the expanded DS terminology. CONCLUSION: We successfully extend SemRep to include DS information and produce SuppKG which can be used to find potential DS-Drug interactions. △ Less

Submitted 23 June, 2021; originally announced June 2021.

Comments: 14 pages, 4 tables, 1 figure

JUNO Physics and Detector

Authors: JUNO Collaboration, Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Sebastiano Aiello, Muhammad Akram, Fengpeng An, Guangpeng An, Qi An, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Burin Asavapibhop, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Andrej Babic, Wander Baldini, Andrea Barresi, Eric Baussan, Marco Bellato, Antonio Bergnoli, Enrico Bernieri, Thilo Birkenfeld , et al. (591 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a 20 kton LS detector at 700-m underground. An excellent energy resolution and a large fiducial volume offer exciting opportunities for addressing many important topics in neutrino and astro-particle physics. With 6 years of data, the neutrino mass ordering can be determined at 3-4 sigma and three oscillation parameters can be measured to a p… ▽ More The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a 20 kton LS detector at 700-m underground. An excellent energy resolution and a large fiducial volume offer exciting opportunities for addressing many important topics in neutrino and astro-particle physics. With 6 years of data, the neutrino mass ordering can be determined at 3-4 sigma and three oscillation parameters can be measured to a precision of 0.6% or better by detecting reactor antineutrinos. With 10 years of data, DSNB could be observed at 3-sigma; a lower limit of the proton lifetime of 8.34e33 years (90% C.L.) can be set by searching for p->nu_bar K^+; detection of solar neutrinos would shed new light on the solar metallicity problem and examine the vacuum-matter transition region. A core-collapse supernova at 10 kpc would lead to ~5000 IBD and ~2000 (300) all-flavor neutrino-proton (electron) scattering events. Geo-neutrinos can be detected with a rate of ~400 events/year. We also summarize the final design of the JUNO detector and the key R&D achievements. All 20-inch PMTs have been tested. The average photon detection efficiency is 28.9% for the 15,000 MCP PMTs and 28.1% for the 5,000 dynode PMTs, higher than the JUNO requirement of 27%. Together with the >20 m attenuation length of LS, we expect a yield of 1345 p.e. per MeV and an effective energy resolution of 3.02%/\sqrt{E (MeV)}$ in simulations. The underwater electronics is designed to have a loss rate <0.5% in 6 years. With degassing membranes and a micro-bubble system, the radon concentration in the 35-kton water pool could be lowered to <10 mBq/m^3. Acrylic panels of radiopurity <0.5 ppt U/Th are produced. The 20-kton LS will be purified onsite. Singles in the fiducial volume can be controlled to ~10 Hz. The JUNO experiment also features a double calorimeter system with 25,600 3-inch PMTs, a LS testing facility OSIRIS, and a near detector TAO. △ Less

Submitted 12 May, 2021; v1 submitted 6 April, 2021; originally announced April 2021.

Comments: A review paper with 78 pages and 32 figures. v2: minor revision. Final version to appear in Progress in Particle and Nuclear Physics

The Design and Sensitivity of JUNO's scintillator radiopurity pre-detector OSIRIS

Authors: JUNO Collaboration, Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Sebastiano Aiello, Muhammad Akram, Fengpeng An, Guangpeng An, Qi An, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Burin Asavapibhop, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Andrej Babic, Wander Baldini, Andrea Barresi, Davide Basilico, Eric Baussan, Marco Bellato, Antonio Bergnoli, Thilo Birkenfeld , et al. (582 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The OSIRIS detector is a subsystem of the liquid scintillator fillling chain of the JUNO reactor neutrino experiment. Its purpose is to validate the radiopurity of the scintillator to assure that all components of the JUNO scintillator system work to specifications and only neutrino-grade scintillator is filled into the JUNO Central Detector. The aspired sensitivity level of $10^{-16}$ g/g of… ▽ More The OSIRIS detector is a subsystem of the liquid scintillator fillling chain of the JUNO reactor neutrino experiment. Its purpose is to validate the radiopurity of the scintillator to assure that all components of the JUNO scintillator system work to specifications and only neutrino-grade scintillator is filled into the JUNO Central Detector. The aspired sensitivity level of $10^{-16}$ g/g of $^{238}$U and $^{232}$Th requires a large ($\sim$20 m$^3$) detection volume and ultralow background levels. The present paper reports on the design and major components of the OSIRIS detector, the detector simulation as well as the measuring strategies foreseen and the sensitivity levels to U/Th that can be reached in this setup. △ Less

Submitted 31 March, 2021; originally announced March 2021.

Comments: 32 pages, 22 figures

JUNO sensitivity to low energy atmospheric neutrino spectra

Authors: JUNO Collaboration, Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Sebastiano Aiello, Muhammad Akram, Fengpeng An, Guangpeng An, Qi An, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Burin Asavapibhop, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Andrej Babic, Wander Baldini, Andrea Barresi, Eric Baussan, Marco Bellato, Antonio Bergnoli, Enrico Bernieri, Thilo Birkenfeld , et al. (588 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: Atmospheric neutrinos are one of the most relevant natural neutrino sources that can be exploited to infer properties about cosmic rays and neutrino oscillations. The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) experiment, a 20 kton liquid scintillator detector with excellent energy resolution is currently under construction in China. JUNO will be able to detect several atmospheric neutrinos… ▽ More Atmospheric neutrinos are one of the most relevant natural neutrino sources that can be exploited to infer properties about cosmic rays and neutrino oscillations. The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) experiment, a 20 kton liquid scintillator detector with excellent energy resolution is currently under construction in China. JUNO will be able to detect several atmospheric neutrinos per day given the large volume. A study on the JUNO detection and reconstruction capabilities of atmospheric $ν_e$ and $ν_μ$ fluxes is presented in this paper. In this study, a sample of atmospheric neutrino Monte Carlo events has been generated, starting from theoretical models, and then processed by the detector simulation. The excellent timing resolution of the 3'' PMT light detection system of JUNO detector and the much higher light yield for scintillation over Cherenkov allow to measure the time structure of the scintillation light with very high precision. Since $ν_e$ and $ν_μ$ interactions produce a slightly different light pattern, the different time evolution of light allows to discriminate the flavor of primary neutrinos. A probabilistic unfolding method has been used, in order to infer the primary neutrino energy spectrum from the detector experimental observables. The simulated spectrum has been reconstructed between 100 MeV and 10 GeV, showing a great potential of the detector in the atmospheric low energy region. △ Less

Submitted 12 October, 2021; v1 submitted 17 March, 2021; originally announced March 2021.

Comments: 25 pages, 9 figures

Journal ref: Eur. Phys. J. C, 81 10 (2021) 887

Flexible estimation of the state dwell-time distribution in hidden semi-Markov models

Authors: Jennifer Pohle, Timo Adam, Larissa T. Beumer

Abstract: Hidden semi-Markov models generalise hidden Markov models by explicitly modelling the time spent in a given state, the so-called dwell time, using some distribution defined on the natural numbers. While the (shifted) Poisson and negative binomial distribution provide natural choices for such distributions, in practice, parametric distributions can lack the flexibility to adequately model the dwell… ▽ More Hidden semi-Markov models generalise hidden Markov models by explicitly modelling the time spent in a given state, the so-called dwell time, using some distribution defined on the natural numbers. While the (shifted) Poisson and negative binomial distribution provide natural choices for such distributions, in practice, parametric distributions can lack the flexibility to adequately model the dwell times. To overcome this problem, a penalised maximum likelihood approach is proposed that allows for a flexible and data-driven estimation of the dwell-time distributions without the need to make any distributional assumption. This approach is suitable for direct modelling purposes or as an exploratory tool to investigate the latent state dynamics. The feasibility and potential of the suggested approach is illustrated by modelling muskox movements in northeast Greenland using GPS tracking data. The proposed method is implemented in the R-package PHSMM which is available on CRAN. △ Less

Submitted 16 February, 2021; v1 submitted 22 January, 2021; originally announced January 2021.

Comments: Main manuscript with 16 pages and supplementary material with 6 pages

Calibration Strategy of the JUNO Experiment

Authors: JUNO collaboration, Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Shakeel Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmed, Sebastiano Aiello, Muhammad Akram, Fengpeng An, Guangpeng An, Qi An, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Burin Asavapibhop, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Andrej Babic, Wander Baldini, Andrea Barresi, Eric Baussan, Marco Bellato, Antonio Bergnoli, Enrico Bernieri, Thilo Birkenfeld , et al. (571 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: We present the calibration strategy for the 20 kton liquid scintillator central detector of the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO). By utilizing a comprehensive multiple-source and multiple-positional calibration program, in combination with a novel dual calorimetry technique exploiting two independent photosensors and readout systems, we demonstrate that the JUNO central detector ca… ▽ More We present the calibration strategy for the 20 kton liquid scintillator central detector of the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO). By utilizing a comprehensive multiple-source and multiple-positional calibration program, in combination with a novel dual calorimetry technique exploiting two independent photosensors and readout systems, we demonstrate that the JUNO central detector can achieve a better than 1% energy linearity and a 3% effective energy resolution, required by the neutrino mass ordering determination. △ Less

Submitted 20 January, 2021; v1 submitted 12 November, 2020; originally announced November 2020.

Single-stage intake gesture detection using CTC loss and extended prefix beam search

Authors: Philipp V. Rouast, Marc T. P. Adam

Abstract: Accurate detection of individual intake gestures is a key step towards automatic dietary monitoring. Both inertial sensor data of wrist movements and video data depicting the upper body have been used for this purpose. The most advanced approaches to date use a two-stage approach, in which (i) frame-level intake probabilities are learned from the sensor data using a deep neural network, and then (… ▽ More Accurate detection of individual intake gestures is a key step towards automatic dietary monitoring. Both inertial sensor data of wrist movements and video data depicting the upper body have been used for this purpose. The most advanced approaches to date use a two-stage approach, in which (i) frame-level intake probabilities are learned from the sensor data using a deep neural network, and then (ii) sparse intake events are detected by finding the maxima of the frame-level probabilities. In this study, we propose a single-stage approach which directly decodes the probabilities learned from sensor data into sparse intake detections. This is achieved by weakly supervised training using Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) loss, and decoding using a novel extended prefix beam search decoding algorithm. Benefits of this approach include (i) end-to-end training for detections, (ii) simplified timing requirements for intake gesture labels, and (iii) improved detection performance compared to existing approaches. Across two separate datasets, we achieve relative $F_1$ score improvements between 1.9% and 6.2% over the two-stage approach for intake detection and eating/drinking detection tasks, for both video and inertial sensors. △ Less

Submitted 20 November, 2020; v1 submitted 7 August, 2020; originally announced August 2020.

OREBA: A Dataset for Objectively Recognizing Eating Behaviour and Associated Intake

Authors: Philipp V. Rouast, Hamid Heydarian, Marc T. P. Adam, Megan E. Rollo

Abstract: Automatic detection of intake gestures is a key element of automatic dietary monitoring. Several types of sensors, including inertial measurement units (IMU) and video cameras, have been used for this purpose. The common machine learning approaches make use of the labeled sensor data to automatically learn how to make detections. One characteristic, especially for deep learning models, is the need… ▽ More Automatic detection of intake gestures is a key element of automatic dietary monitoring. Several types of sensors, including inertial measurement units (IMU) and video cameras, have been used for this purpose. The common machine learning approaches make use of the labeled sensor data to automatically learn how to make detections. One characteristic, especially for deep learning models, is the need for large datasets. To meet this need, we collected the Objectively Recognizing Eating Behavior and Associated Intake (OREBA) dataset. The OREBA dataset aims to provide comprehensive multi-sensor data recorded during the course of communal meals for researchers interested in intake gesture detection. Two scenarios are included, with 100 participants for a discrete dish and 102 participants for a shared dish, totalling 9069 intake gestures. Available sensor data consists of synchronized frontal video and IMU with accelerometer and gyroscope for both hands. We report the details of data collection and annotation, as well as details of sensor processing. The results of studies on IMU and video data involving deep learning models are reported to provide a baseline for future research. Specifically, the best baseline models achieve performances of $F_1$ = 0.853 for the discrete dish using video and $F_1$ = 0.852 for the shared dish using inertial data. △ Less

Submitted 29 September, 2020; v1 submitted 30 July, 2020; originally announced July 2020.

Comments: To be published in IEEE Access

Detecting bearish and bullish markets in financial time series using hierarchical hidden Markov models

Authors: Lennart Oelschläger, Timo Adam

Abstract: Financial markets exhibit alternating periods of rising and falling prices. Stock traders seeking to make profitable investment decisions have to account for those trends, where the goal is to accurately predict switches from bullish towards bearish markets and vice versa. Popular tools for modeling financial time series are hidden Markov models, where a latent state process is used to explicitly… ▽ More Financial markets exhibit alternating periods of rising and falling prices. Stock traders seeking to make profitable investment decisions have to account for those trends, where the goal is to accurately predict switches from bullish towards bearish markets and vice versa. Popular tools for modeling financial time series are hidden Markov models, where a latent state process is used to explicitly model switches among different market regimes. In their basic form, however, hidden Markov models are not capable of capturing both short- and long-term trends, which can lead to a misinterpretation of short-term price fluctuations as changes in the long-term trend. In this paper, we demonstrate how hierarchical hidden Markov models can be used to draw a comprehensive picture of financial markets, which can contribute to the development of more sophisticated trading strategies. The feasibility of the suggested approach is illustrated in two real-data applications, where we model data from two major stock indices, the Deutscher Aktienindex and the Standard & Poor's 500. △ Less

Submitted 29 July, 2020; originally announced July 2020.

When Text Simplification Is Not Enough: Could a Graph-Based Visualization Facilitate Consumers' Comprehension of Dietary Supplement Information?

Authors: Xing He, Rui Zhang, Jordan Alpert, Sicheng Zhou, Terrence J Adam, Aantaki Raisa, Yifan Peng, Hansi Zhang, Yi Guo, Jiang Bian

Abstract: Dietary supplements are widely used but not always safe. With the rapid development of the Internet, consumers usually seek health information including dietary supplement information online. To help consumers access quality online dietary supplement information, we have identified trustworthy dietary supplement information sources and built an evidence-based knowledge base of dietary supplement i… ▽ More Dietary supplements are widely used but not always safe. With the rapid development of the Internet, consumers usually seek health information including dietary supplement information online. To help consumers access quality online dietary supplement information, we have identified trustworthy dietary supplement information sources and built an evidence-based knowledge base of dietary supplement information-the integrated DIetary Supplement Knowledge base (iDISK) that integrates and standardizes dietary supplement related information across these different sources. However, as information in iDISK was collected from scientific sources, the complex medical jargon is a barrier for consumers' comprehension. To assess how different approaches to simplify and represent dietary supplement information from iDISK will affect lay consumers' comprehension, using a crowdsourcing platform, we recruited participants to read dietary supplement information in four different representations from iDISK: original text, syntactic and lexical text simplification, manual text simplification, and a graph-based visualization. We then assessed how the different simplification and representation strategies affected consumers' comprehension of dietary supplement information in terms of accuracy and response time to a set of comprehension questions. With responses from 690 qualified participants, our experiments confirmed that the manual approach had the best performance for both accuracy and response time to the comprehension questions, while the graph-based approach ranked the second outperforming other representations. In some cases, the graph-based representation outperformed the manual approach in terms of response time. A hybrid approach that combines text and graph-based representations might be needed to accommodate consumers' different information needs and information seeking behavior. △ Less

Submitted 3 April, 2021; v1 submitted 5 July, 2020; originally announced July 2020.

Optimization of the JUNO liquid scintillator composition using a Daya Bay antineutrino detector

Authors: Daya Bay, JUNO collaborations, :, A. Abusleme, T. Adam, S. Ahmad, S. Aiello, M. Akram, N. Ali, F. P. An, G. P. An, Q. An, G. Andronico, N. Anfimov, V. Antonelli, T. Antoshkina, B. Asavapibhop, J. P. A. M. de André, A. Babic, A. B. Balantekin, W. Baldini, M. Baldoncini, H. R. Band, A. Barresi, E. Baussan , et al. (642 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: To maximize the light yield of the liquid scintillator (LS) for the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), a 20 t LS sample was produced in a pilot plant at Daya Bay. The optical properties of the new LS in various compositions were studied by replacing the gadolinium-loaded LS in one antineutrino detector. The concentrations of the fluor, PPO, and the wavelength shifter, bis-MSB, were… ▽ More To maximize the light yield of the liquid scintillator (LS) for the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), a 20 t LS sample was produced in a pilot plant at Daya Bay. The optical properties of the new LS in various compositions were studied by replacing the gadolinium-loaded LS in one antineutrino detector. The concentrations of the fluor, PPO, and the wavelength shifter, bis-MSB, were increased in 12 steps from 0.5 g/L and <0.01 mg/L to 4 g/L and 13 mg/L, respectively. The numbers of total detected photoelectrons suggest that, with the optically purified solvent, the bis-MSB concentration does not need to be more than 4 mg/L. To bridge the one order of magnitude in the detector size difference between Daya Bay and JUNO, the Daya Bay data were used to tune the parameters of a newly developed optical model. Then, the model and tuned parameters were used in the JUNO simulation. This enabled to determine the optimal composition for the JUNO LS: purified solvent LAB with 2.5 g/L PPO, and 1 to 4 mg/L bis-MSB. △ Less

Submitted 1 July, 2020; originally announced July 2020.

Comments: 13 pages, 8 figures

Feasibility and physics potential of detecting $^8$B solar neutrinos at JUNO

Authors: JUNO collaboration, Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Shakeel Ahmad, Sebastiano Aiello, Muhammad Akram, Nawab Ali, Fengpeng An, Guangpeng An, Qi An, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Burin Asavapibhop, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Andrej Babic, Wander Baldini, Andrea Barresi, Eric Baussan, Marco Bellato, Antonio Bergnoli, Enrico Bernieri, David Biare , et al. (572 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory~(JUNO) features a 20~kt multi-purpose underground liquid scintillator sphere as its main detector. Some of JUNO's features make it an excellent experiment for $^8$B solar neutrino measurements, such as its low-energy threshold, its high energy resolution compared to water Cherenkov detectors, and its much large target mass compared to previous liquid s… ▽ More The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory~(JUNO) features a 20~kt multi-purpose underground liquid scintillator sphere as its main detector. Some of JUNO's features make it an excellent experiment for $^8$B solar neutrino measurements, such as its low-energy threshold, its high energy resolution compared to water Cherenkov detectors, and its much large target mass compared to previous liquid scintillator detectors. In this paper we present a comprehensive assessment of JUNO's potential for detecting $^8$B solar neutrinos via the neutrino-electron elastic scattering process. A reduced 2~MeV threshold on the recoil electron energy is found to be achievable assuming the intrinsic radioactive background $^{238}$U and $^{232}$Th in the liquid scintillator can be controlled to 10$^{-17}$~g/g. With ten years of data taking, about 60,000 signal and 30,000 background events are expected. This large sample will enable an examination of the distortion of the recoil electron spectrum that is dominated by the neutrino flavor transformation in the dense solar matter, which will shed new light on the tension between the measured electron spectra and the predictions of the standard three-flavor neutrino oscillation framework. If $Δm^{2}_{21}=4.8\times10^{-5}~(7.5\times10^{-5})$~eV$^{2}$, JUNO can provide evidence of neutrino oscillation in the Earth at the about 3$σ$~(2$σ$) level by measuring the non-zero signal rate variation with respect to the solar zenith angle. Moveover, JUNO can simultaneously measure $Δm^2_{21}$ using $^8$B solar neutrinos to a precision of 20\% or better depending on the central value and to sub-percent precision using reactor antineutrinos. A comparison of these two measurements from the same detector will help elucidate the current tension between the value of $Δm^2_{21}$ reported by solar neutrino experiments and the KamLAND experiment. △ Less

Submitted 21 June, 2020; originally announced June 2020.

Comments: 29 pages, 14 plots, 7 tables

TAO Conceptual Design Report: A Precision Measurement of the Reactor Antineutrino Spectrum with Sub-percent Energy Resolution

Authors: JUNO Collaboration, Angel Abusleme, Thomas Adam, Shakeel Ahmad, Sebastiano Aiello, Muhammad Akram, Nawab Ali, Fengpeng An, Guangpeng An, Qi An, Giuseppe Andronico, Nikolay Anfimov, Vito Antonelli, Tatiana Antoshkina, Burin Asavapibhop, João Pedro Athayde Marcondes de André, Didier Auguste, Andrej Babic, Wander Baldini, Andrea Barresi, Eric Baussan, Marco Bellato, Antonio Bergnoli, Enrico Bernieri, David Biare , et al. (568 additional authors not shown)

Abstract: The Taishan Antineutrino Observatory (TAO, also known as JUNO-TAO) is a satellite experiment of the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO). A ton-level liquid scintillator detector will be placed at about 30 m from a core of the Taishan Nuclear Power Plant. The reactor antineutrino spectrum will be measured with sub-percent energy resolution, to provide a reference spectrum for future re… ▽ More The Taishan Antineutrino Observatory (TAO, also known as JUNO-TAO) is a satellite experiment of the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO). A ton-level liquid scintillator detector will be placed at about 30 m from a core of the Taishan Nuclear Power Plant. The reactor antineutrino spectrum will be measured with sub-percent energy resolution, to provide a reference spectrum for future reactor neutrino experiments, and to provide a benchmark measurement to test nuclear databases. A spherical acrylic vessel containing 2.8 ton gadolinium-doped liquid scintillator will be viewed by 10 m^2 Silicon Photomultipliers (SiPMs) of >50% photon detection efficiency with almost full coverage. The photoelectron yield is about 4500 per MeV, an order higher than any existing large-scale liquid scintillator detectors. The detector operates at -50 degree C to lower the dark noise of SiPMs to an acceptable level. The detector will measure about 2000 reactor antineutrinos per day, and is designed to be well shielded from cosmogenic backgrounds and ambient radioactivities to have about 10% background-to-signal ratio. The experiment is expected to start operation in 2022. △ Less

Submitted 18 May, 2020; originally announced May 2020.

Comments: 134 pages, 114 figures

Learning deep representations for video-based intake gesture detection

Authors: Philipp V. Rouast, Marc T. P. Adam

Abstract: Automatic detection of individual intake gestures during eating occasions has the potential to improve dietary monitoring and support dietary recommendations. Existing studies typically make use of on-body solutions such as inertial and audio sensors, while video is used as ground truth. Intake gesture detection directly based on video has rarely been attempted. In this study, we address this gap… ▽ More Automatic detection of individual intake gestures during eating occasions has the potential to improve dietary monitoring and support dietary recommendations. Existing studies typically make use of on-body solutions such as inertial and audio sensors, while video is used as ground truth. Intake gesture detection directly based on video has rarely been attempted. In this study, we address this gap and show that deep learning architectures can successfully be applied to the problem of video-based detection of intake gestures. For this purpose, we collect and label video data of eating occasions using 360-degree video of 102 participants. Applying state-of-the-art approaches from video action recognition, our results show that (1) the best model achieves an $F_1$ score of 0.858, (2) appearance features contribute more than motion features, and (3) temporal context in form of multiple video frames is essential for top model performance. △ Less

Submitted 23 September, 2019; originally announced September 2019.

Comments: To be published in IEEE Journal of Biomedical and Health Informatics

Penalized estimation of flexible hidden Markov models for time series of counts

Authors: Timo Adam, Roland Langrock, Christian H. Weiß

Abstract: Hidden Markov models are versatile tools for modeling sequential observations, where it is assumed that a hidden state process selects which of finitely many distributions generates any given observation. Specifically for time series of counts, the Poisson family often provides a natural choice for the state-dependent distributions, though more flexible distributions such as the negative binomial… ▽ More Hidden Markov models are versatile tools for modeling sequential observations, where it is assumed that a hidden state process selects which of finitely many distributions generates any given observation. Specifically for time series of counts, the Poisson family often provides a natural choice for the state-dependent distributions, though more flexible distributions such as the negative binomial or distributions with a bounded range can also be used. However, in practice, choosing an adequate class of (parametric) distributions is often anything but straightforward, and an inadequate choice can have severe negative consequences on the model's predictive performance, on state classification, and generally on inference related to the system considered. To address this issue, we propose an effectively nonparametric approach to fitting hidden Markov models to time series of counts, where the state-dependent distributions are estimated in a completely data-driven way without the need to select a distributional family. To avoid overfitting, we add a roughness penalty based on higher-order differences between adjacent count probabilities to the likelihood, which is demonstrated to produce smooth probability mass functions of the state-dependent distributions. The feasibility of the suggested approach is assessed in a simulation experiment, and illustrated in two real-data applications, where we model the distribution of i) major earthquake counts and ii) acceleration counts of an oceanic whitetip shark (Carcharhinus longimanus) over time. △ Less

Submitted 10 January, 2019; originally announced January 2019.