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Technical Analysis Meets Machine Learning: Bitcoin Evidence
Authors:
José Ángel Islas Anguiano,
Andrés García-Medina
Abstract:
In this note, we compare Bitcoin trading performance using two machine learning models-Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-and two technical analysis-based strategies: Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossover and a combination of Moving Average Convergence/Divergence with the Average Directional Index (MACD+ADX). The objective is to evaluate how trading s…
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In this note, we compare Bitcoin trading performance using two machine learning models-Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-and two technical analysis-based strategies: Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossover and a combination of Moving Average Convergence/Divergence with the Average Directional Index (MACD+ADX). The objective is to evaluate how trading signals can be used to maximize profits in the Bitcoin market. This comparison was motivated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) approval of the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on 2024-01-10. Our results show that the LSTM model achieved a cumulative return of approximately 65.23% in under a year, significantly outperforming LightGBM, the EMA and MACD+ADX strategies, as well as the baseline buy-and-hold. This study highlights the potential for deeper integration of machine learning and technical analysis in the rapidly evolving cryptocurrency landscape.
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Submitted 1 November, 2025;
originally announced November 2025.
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The Linear Collider Facility (LCF) at CERN
Authors:
H. Abramowicz,
E. Adli,
F. Alharthi,
M. Almanza-Soto,
M. M. Altakach,
S. Ampudia Castelazo,
D. Angal-Kalinin,
J. A. Anguiano,
R. B. Appleby,
O. Apsimon,
A. Arbey,
O. Arquero,
D. Attié,
J. L. Avila-Jimenez,
H. Baer,
Y. Bai,
C. Balazs,
P. Bambade,
T. Barklow,
J. Baudot,
P. Bechtle,
T. Behnke,
A. B. Bellerive,
S. Belomestnykh,
Y. Benhammou
, et al. (386 additional authors not shown)
Abstract:
In this paper we outline a proposal for a Linear Collider Facility as the next flagship project for CERN. It offers the opportunity for a timely, cost-effective and staged construction of a new collider that will be able to comprehensively map the Higgs boson's properties, including the Higgs field potential, thanks to a large span in centre-of-mass energies and polarised beams. A comprehensive pr…
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In this paper we outline a proposal for a Linear Collider Facility as the next flagship project for CERN. It offers the opportunity for a timely, cost-effective and staged construction of a new collider that will be able to comprehensively map the Higgs boson's properties, including the Higgs field potential, thanks to a large span in centre-of-mass energies and polarised beams. A comprehensive programme to study the Higgs boson and its closest relatives with high precision requires data at centre-of-mass energies from the Z pole to at least 1 TeV. It should include measurements of the Higgs boson in both major production mechanisms, ee -> ZH and ee -> vvH, precision measurements of gauge boson interactions as well as of the W boson, Higgs boson and top-quark masses, measurement of the top-quark Yukawa coupling through ee ->ttH, measurement of the Higgs boson self-coupling through HH production, and precision measurements of the electroweak couplings of the top quark. In addition, ee collisions offer discovery potential for new particles complementary to HL-LHC.
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Submitted 19 June, 2025; v1 submitted 31 March, 2025;
originally announced March 2025.
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A Linear Collider Vision for the Future of Particle Physics
Authors:
H. Abramowicz,
E. Adli,
F. Alharthi,
M. Almanza-Soto,
M. M. Altakach,
W. Altmannshofer,
S. Ampudia Castelazo,
D. Angal-Kalinin,
J. A. Anguiano,
R. B. Appleby,
O. Apsimon,
A. Arbey,
F. Arco,
O. Arquero,
A. Aryshev,
S. Asai,
D. Attie,
J. L. Avila-Jimenez,
H. Baer,
J. A. Bagger,
Y. Bai,
I. R. Bailey,
C. Balazs,
P. Bambade,
T. Barklow
, et al. (426 additional authors not shown)
Abstract:
In this paper we review the physics opportunities at linear $e^+e^-$ colliders with a special focus on high centre-of-mass energies and beam polarisation, take a fresh look at the various accelerator technologies available or under development and, for the first time, discuss how a facility first equipped with a technology mature today could be upgraded with technologies of tomorrow to reach much…
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In this paper we review the physics opportunities at linear $e^+e^-$ colliders with a special focus on high centre-of-mass energies and beam polarisation, take a fresh look at the various accelerator technologies available or under development and, for the first time, discuss how a facility first equipped with a technology mature today could be upgraded with technologies of tomorrow to reach much higher energies and/or luminosities. In addition, we will discuss detectors and alternative collider modes, as well as opportunities for beyond-collider experiments and R\&D facilities as part of a linear collider facility (LCF). The material of this paper will support all plans for $e^+e^-$ linear colliders and additional opportunities they offer, independently of technology choice or proposed site, as well as R\&D for advanced accelerator technologies. This joint perspective on the physics goals, early technologies and upgrade strategies has been developed by the LCVision team based on an initial discussion at LCWS2024 in Tokyo and a follow-up at the LCVision Community Event at CERN in January 2025. It heavily builds on decades of achievements of the global linear collider community, in particular in the context of CLIC and ILC.
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Submitted 23 December, 2025; v1 submitted 25 March, 2025;
originally announced March 2025.