Title:Disability prediction in multiple sclerosis using performance outcome measures and demographic data

Abstract:Literature on machine learning for multiple sclerosis has primarily focused on the use of neuroimaging data such as magnetic resonance imaging and clinical laboratory tests for disease identification. However, studies have shown that these modalities are not consistent with disease activity such as symptoms or disease progression. Furthermore, the cost of collecting data from these modalities is high, leading to scarce evaluations. In this work, we used multi-dimensional, affordable, physical and smartphone-based performance outcome measures (POM) in conjunction with demographic data to predict multiple sclerosis disease progression. We performed a rigorous benchmarking exercise on two datasets and present results across 13 clinically actionable prediction endpoints and 6 machine learning models. To the best of our knowledge, our results are the first to show that it is possible to predict disease progression using POMs and demographic data in the context of both clinical trials and smartphone-base studies by using two datasets. Moreover, we investigate our models to understand the impact of different POMs and demographics on model performance through feature ablation studies. We also show that model performance is similar across different demographic subgroups (based on age and sex). To enable this work, we developed an end-to-end reusable pre-processing and machine learning framework which allows quicker experimentation over disparate MS datasets.