Title:Population-level Hypothesis Testing with Rocky Planet Emission Data: A Tentative Trend in the Brightness Temperatures of M-Earths

Abstract:Determining which rocky exoplanets have atmospheres, and why, is a key goal for the James Webb Space Telescope. So far, emission observations of individual rocky exoplanets orbiting M stars (M-Earths) have not provided definitive evidence for atmospheres. Here, we synthesize emission data for M-Earths and find a trend in measured brightness temperatures (ratioed to its theoretical maximum value) as a function of instellation. However, the statistical evidence of this trend is dependent on the choice of stellar model, and we consider its identification tentative. We show that this trend can be explained by either the onset of thin/tenuous (<1 bar) CO2-rich atmospheres on colder worlds, or a population of bare rocks with stronger space weathering and/or coarser regolith on closer-in worlds. Such grain coarsening may be caused by sintering near the melting point of rock or frequent volcanic resurfacing. Furthermore, we highlight considerations when testing rocky planet hypotheses at the population level, including the choice of instrument, stellar modeling, and how brightness temperatures are derived. We also find that fresh (unweathered) fine-grained surfaces can serve as a false positive to the detection of moderate atmospheric heat redistribution through eclipse observations. However, we argue that such surfaces are unlikely given the ubiquity of space weathering in the Solar System, the low albedo of Solar System airless bodies, and the high stellar wind environments of M-Earths. Emission data from a larger sample of M-Earths will be able to confirm or reject this tentative trend and diagnose its cause through spectral characterization.