Title:False Alarm Rates in Detecting Gravitational Wave Lensing from Astrophysical Coincidences: Insights with Model-Independent Technique GLANCE

Abstract:The strong lensing gravitational waves (GWs) due to intervening massive astrophysical systems between the source and an observer are an inevitable consequence of the general theory of relativity, which can produce multiple GW events in overlapping sky localization error. However, the confirmed detection of such a unique astrophysical phenomenon is challenging due to several sources of contamination, arising from detector noise to astrophysical uncertainties. Robust model-independent search techniques that can mitigate noise contamination were developed in the past. In this study, we explore the astrophysical uncertainty associated with incorrectly classifying a pair of unlensed GW events as a lensed event, and the associated False Alarm Rate (FAR) depending on the GW source properties. To understand the effect of unlensed astrophysical GW sources in producing false lensing detections, we have performed a model-independent test using the pipeline GLANCE on a simulated population of merging binary-black holes (BBHs). We find that $\sim$ 0.01\% of the event pairs can be falsely classified as lensed with a lensing threshold signal-to-noise ratio of 1.5, appearing at a time delay between the event pairs of $\sim$ 1000 days or more. We show the FAR distribution for the parameter space of GW source masses, delay time, and lensing magnification parameter over which the model-independent technique GLANCE can confidently detect lensed GW pair with the current LIGO detector sensitivity. In the future, this technique will be useful for understanding the FAR of the upcoming next-generation GW detectors, which can observe many more GW sources.