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On the Bayes Inconsistency of Disagreement Discrepancy Surrogates
Authors:
Neil G. Marchant,
Andrew C. Cullen,
Feng Liu,
Sarah M. Erfani
Abstract:
Deep neural networks often fail when deployed in real-world contexts due to distribution shift, a critical barrier to building safe and reliable systems. An emerging approach to address this problem relies on \emph{disagreement discrepancy} -- a measure of how the disagreement between two models changes under a shifting distribution. The process of maximizing this measure has seen applications in…
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Deep neural networks often fail when deployed in real-world contexts due to distribution shift, a critical barrier to building safe and reliable systems. An emerging approach to address this problem relies on \emph{disagreement discrepancy} -- a measure of how the disagreement between two models changes under a shifting distribution. The process of maximizing this measure has seen applications in bounding error under shifts, testing for harmful shifts, and training more robust models. However, this optimization involves the non-differentiable zero-one loss, necessitating the use of practical surrogate losses. We prove that existing surrogates for disagreement discrepancy are not Bayes consistent, revealing a fundamental flaw: maximizing these surrogates can fail to maximize the true disagreement discrepancy. To address this, we introduce new theoretical results providing both upper and lower bounds on the optimality gap for such surrogates. Guided by this theory, we propose a novel disagreement loss that, when paired with cross-entropy, yields a provably consistent surrogate for disagreement discrepancy. Empirical evaluations across diverse benchmarks demonstrate that our method provides more accurate and robust estimates of disagreement discrepancy than existing approaches, particularly under challenging adversarial conditions.
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Submitted 5 December, 2025;
originally announced December 2025.
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Adaptive Data Analysis for Growing Data
Authors:
Neil G. Marchant,
Benjamin I. P. Rubinstein
Abstract:
Reuse of data in adaptive workflows poses challenges regarding overfitting and the statistical validity of results. Previous work has demonstrated that interacting with data via differentially private algorithms can mitigate overfitting, achieving worst-case generalization guarantees with asymptotically optimal data requirements. However, such past work assumes data is static and cannot accommodat…
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Reuse of data in adaptive workflows poses challenges regarding overfitting and the statistical validity of results. Previous work has demonstrated that interacting with data via differentially private algorithms can mitigate overfitting, achieving worst-case generalization guarantees with asymptotically optimal data requirements. However, such past work assumes data is static and cannot accommodate situations where data grows over time. In this paper we address this gap, presenting the first generalization bounds for adaptive analysis on dynamic data. We allow the analyst to adaptively schedule their queries conditioned on the current size of the data, in addition to previous queries and responses. We also incorporate time-varying empirical accuracy bounds and mechanisms, allowing for tighter guarantees as data accumulates. In a batched query setting, the asymptotic data requirements of our bound grows with the square-root of the number of adaptive queries, matching prior works' improvement over data splitting for the static setting. We instantiate our bound for statistical queries with the clipped Gaussian mechanism, where it empirically outperforms baselines composed from static bounds.
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Submitted 12 November, 2025; v1 submitted 22 May, 2024;
originally announced May 2024.
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RS-Del: Edit Distance Robustness Certificates for Sequence Classifiers via Randomized Deletion
Authors:
Zhuoqun Huang,
Neil G. Marchant,
Keane Lucas,
Lujo Bauer,
Olga Ohrimenko,
Benjamin I. P. Rubinstein
Abstract:
Randomized smoothing is a leading approach for constructing classifiers that are certifiably robust against adversarial examples. Existing work on randomized smoothing has focused on classifiers with continuous inputs, such as images, where $\ell_p$-norm bounded adversaries are commonly studied. However, there has been limited work for classifiers with discrete or variable-size inputs, such as for…
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Randomized smoothing is a leading approach for constructing classifiers that are certifiably robust against adversarial examples. Existing work on randomized smoothing has focused on classifiers with continuous inputs, such as images, where $\ell_p$-norm bounded adversaries are commonly studied. However, there has been limited work for classifiers with discrete or variable-size inputs, such as for source code, which require different threat models and smoothing mechanisms. In this work, we adapt randomized smoothing for discrete sequence classifiers to provide certified robustness against edit distance-bounded adversaries. Our proposed smoothing mechanism randomized deletion (RS-Del) applies random deletion edits, which are (perhaps surprisingly) sufficient to confer robustness against adversarial deletion, insertion and substitution edits. Our proof of certification deviates from the established Neyman-Pearson approach, which is intractable in our setting, and is instead organized around longest common subsequences. We present a case study on malware detection--a binary classification problem on byte sequences where classifier evasion is a well-established threat model. When applied to the popular MalConv malware detection model, our smoothing mechanism RS-Del achieves a certified accuracy of 91% at an edit distance radius of 128 bytes.
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Submitted 24 January, 2024; v1 submitted 30 January, 2023;
originally announced February 2023.
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Bayesian Graphical Entity Resolution Using Exchangeable Random Partition Priors
Authors:
Neil G. Marchant,
Benjamin I. P. Rubinstein,
Rebecca C. Steorts
Abstract:
Entity resolution (record linkage or deduplication) is the process of identifying and linking duplicate records in databases. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian graphical approach for entity resolution that links records to latent entities, where the prior representation on the linkage structure is exchangeable. First, we adopt a flexible and tractable set of priors for the linkage structure, wh…
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Entity resolution (record linkage or deduplication) is the process of identifying and linking duplicate records in databases. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian graphical approach for entity resolution that links records to latent entities, where the prior representation on the linkage structure is exchangeable. First, we adopt a flexible and tractable set of priors for the linkage structure, which corresponds to a special class of random partition models. Second, we propose a more realistic distortion model for categorical/discrete record attributes, which corrects a logical inconsistency with the standard hit-miss model. Third, we incorporate hyperpriors to improve flexibility. Fourth, we employ a partially collapsed Gibbs sampler for inferential speedups. Using a selection of private and nonprivate data sets, we investigate the impact of our modeling contributions and compare our model with two alternative Bayesian models. In addition, we conduct a simulation study for household survey data, where we vary distortion, duplication rates and data set size. We find that our model performs more consistently than the alternatives across a variety of scenarios and typically achieves the highest entity resolution accuracy (F1 score). Open source software is available for our proposed methodology, and we provide a discussion regarding our work and future directions.
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Submitted 7 January, 2023;
originally announced January 2023.
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Needle in a Haystack: Label-Efficient Evaluation under Extreme Class Imbalance
Authors:
Neil G. Marchant,
Benjamin I. P. Rubinstein
Abstract:
Important tasks like record linkage and extreme classification demonstrate extreme class imbalance, with 1 minority instance to every 1 million or more majority instances. Obtaining a sufficient sample of all classes, even just to achieve statistically-significant evaluation, is so challenging that most current approaches yield poor estimates or incur impractical cost. Where importance sampling ha…
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Important tasks like record linkage and extreme classification demonstrate extreme class imbalance, with 1 minority instance to every 1 million or more majority instances. Obtaining a sufficient sample of all classes, even just to achieve statistically-significant evaluation, is so challenging that most current approaches yield poor estimates or incur impractical cost. Where importance sampling has been levied against this challenge, restrictive constraints are placed on performance metrics, estimates do not come with appropriate guarantees, or evaluations cannot adapt to incoming labels. This paper develops a framework for online evaluation based on adaptive importance sampling. Given a target performance metric and model for $p(y|x)$, the framework adapts a distribution over items to label in order to maximize statistical precision. We establish strong consistency and a central limit theorem for the resulting performance estimates, and instantiate our framework with worked examples that leverage Dirichlet-tree models. Experiments demonstrate an average MSE superior to state-of-the-art on fixed label budgets.
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Submitted 2 June, 2021; v1 submitted 12 June, 2020;
originally announced June 2020.
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d-blink: Distributed End-to-End Bayesian Entity Resolution
Authors:
Neil G. Marchant,
Andee Kaplan,
Daniel N. Elazar,
Benjamin I. P. Rubinstein,
Rebecca C. Steorts
Abstract:
Entity resolution (ER; also known as record linkage or de-duplication) is the process of merging noisy databases, often in the absence of unique identifiers. A major advancement in ER methodology has been the application of Bayesian generative models, which provide a natural framework for inferring latent entities with rigorous quantification of uncertainty. Despite these advantages, existing mode…
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Entity resolution (ER; also known as record linkage or de-duplication) is the process of merging noisy databases, often in the absence of unique identifiers. A major advancement in ER methodology has been the application of Bayesian generative models, which provide a natural framework for inferring latent entities with rigorous quantification of uncertainty. Despite these advantages, existing models are severely limited in practice, as standard inference algorithms scale quadratically in the number of records. While scaling can be managed by fitting the model on separate blocks of the data, such a naïve approach may induce significant error in the posterior. In this paper, we propose a principled model for scalable Bayesian ER, called "distributed Bayesian linkage" or d-blink, which jointly performs blocking and ER without compromising posterior correctness. Our approach relies on several key ideas, including: (i) an auxiliary variable representation that induces a partition of the entities and records into blocks; (ii) a method for constructing well-balanced blocks based on k-d trees; (iii) a distributed partially-collapsed Gibbs sampler with improved mixing; and (iv) fast algorithms for performing Gibbs updates. Empirical studies on six data sets---including a case study on the 2010 Decennial Census---demonstrate the scalability and effectiveness of our approach.
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Submitted 22 September, 2020; v1 submitted 13 September, 2019;
originally announced September 2019.
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In Search of an Entity Resolution OASIS: Optimal Asymptotic Sequential Importance Sampling
Authors:
Neil G. Marchant,
Benjamin I. P. Rubinstein
Abstract:
Entity resolution (ER) presents unique challenges for evaluation methodology. While crowdsourcing platforms acquire ground truth, sound approaches to sampling must drive labelling efforts. In ER, extreme class imbalance between matching and non-matching records can lead to enormous labelling requirements when seeking statistically consistent estimates for rigorous evaluation. This paper addresses…
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Entity resolution (ER) presents unique challenges for evaluation methodology. While crowdsourcing platforms acquire ground truth, sound approaches to sampling must drive labelling efforts. In ER, extreme class imbalance between matching and non-matching records can lead to enormous labelling requirements when seeking statistically consistent estimates for rigorous evaluation. This paper addresses this important challenge with the OASIS algorithm: a sampler and F-measure estimator for ER evaluation. OASIS draws samples from a (biased) instrumental distribution, chosen to ensure estimators with optimal asymptotic variance. As new labels are collected OASIS updates this instrumental distribution via a Bayesian latent variable model of the annotator oracle, to quickly focus on unlabelled items providing more information. We prove that resulting estimates of F-measure, precision, recall converge to the true population values. Thorough comparisons of sampling methods on a variety of ER datasets demonstrate significant labelling reductions of up to 83% without loss to estimate accuracy.
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Submitted 25 June, 2017; v1 submitted 1 March, 2017;
originally announced March 2017.