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Modeling Non-Gaussianities in Pulsar Timing Array data analysis using Gaussian Mixture Models
Authors:
Mikel Falxa,
Alberto Sesana
Abstract:
In Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) data analysis, noise is typically assumed to be Gaussian, and the marginalized likelihood has a well-established analytical form derived within the framework of Gaussian processes. However, this Gaussianity assumption may break down for certain classes of astrophysical and cosmological signals, particularly for a gravitational wave background (GWB) generated by a popul…
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In Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) data analysis, noise is typically assumed to be Gaussian, and the marginalized likelihood has a well-established analytical form derived within the framework of Gaussian processes. However, this Gaussianity assumption may break down for certain classes of astrophysical and cosmological signals, particularly for a gravitational wave background (GWB) generated by a population of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs). In this work, we present a new method for testing the presence of non-Gaussian features in PTA data. We go beyond the Gaussian assumption by modeling the noise or signal statistics using a Gaussian mixture model (GMM). An advantage of this approach is that the marginalization of the likelihood remains fully analytical, expressed as a linear combination of Gaussian PTA likelihoods. This makes the method straightforward to implement within existing data analysis tools. Moreover, this method extends beyond the free spectrum analysis by producing posterior probability distributions of higher-order moments inferred from the data, which can be incorporated into spectral refitting techniques. We validate the model using simulations and demonstrate the sensitivity of PTAs to non-Gaussianity by computing the Bayes factor in favor of the GMM as a function of the injected excess moments. We apply the method to a more astrophysically motivated scenario where a single SMBHB is resolved on top of a Gaussian GWB and show that significant non-Gaussianities are introduced by the individual source. Finally, we test our model on a realistic GWB generated from a simulated population of SMBHBs.
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Submitted 29 January, 2026; v1 submitted 11 August, 2025;
originally announced August 2025.
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Searching for Gravitational Waves with Gaia and its Cross-Correlation with PTA: Absolute vs Relative Astrometry
Authors:
Massimo Vaglio,
Mikel Falxa,
Giorgio Mentasti,
Arianna I. Renzini,
Adrien Kuntz,
Enrico Barausse,
Carlo Contaldi,
Alberto Sesana
Abstract:
Astrometric missions like Gaia provide exceptionally precise measurements of stellar positions and proper motions. Gravitational waves traveling between the observer and distant stars can induce small, correlated shifts in these apparent positions, a phenomenon known as astrometric deflection. The precision and scale of astrometric datasets make them well-suited for searching for a stochastic grav…
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Astrometric missions like Gaia provide exceptionally precise measurements of stellar positions and proper motions. Gravitational waves traveling between the observer and distant stars can induce small, correlated shifts in these apparent positions, a phenomenon known as astrometric deflection. The precision and scale of astrometric datasets make them well-suited for searching for a stochastic gravitational wave background, whose signature appears in the two-point correlation function of the deflection field across the sky. Although Gaia achieves high accuracy in measuring angular separations in its focal plane, systematic uncertainties in the satellite's absolute orientation limit the precision of absolute position measurements. These orientation errors can be mitigated by focusing on relative angles between star pairs, which effectively cancel out common-mode orientation noise. In this work, we compute the astrometric response and the overlap reduction functions for this relative astrometry approach, correcting previous expressions presented in the literature. We use a Fisher matrix analysis to compare the sensitivity of relative astrometry to that of conventional absolute astrometry. Our analysis shows that while the relative method is theoretically sound, its sensitivity is limited for closely spaced star pairs within a single Gaia field of view. Pairs with large angular separations could provide competitive sensitivity, but are practically inaccessible due to Gaia's scanning law. Finally, we demonstrate that combining astrometric data with observations from pulsar timing arrays leads to slight improvements in sensitivity at frequencies greater than approximately 10^-7 Hz.
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Submitted 24 July, 2025;
originally announced July 2025.
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From eccentric binaries to nonstationary gravitational wave backgrounds
Authors:
Mikel Falxa,
Hippolyte Quelquejay Leclere,
Alberto Sesana
Abstract:
A large population of binary systems in the Universe emitting gravitational waves (GW) would produce a stochastic noise, known as the gravitational wave background (GWB). The properties of the GWB directly depend on the attributes of its constituents. If the binary systems are in eccentric orbits, it is well established that the GW power they radiate strongly depends on their instantaneous orbital…
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A large population of binary systems in the Universe emitting gravitational waves (GW) would produce a stochastic noise, known as the gravitational wave background (GWB). The properties of the GWB directly depend on the attributes of its constituents. If the binary systems are in eccentric orbits, it is well established that the GW power they radiate strongly depends on their instantaneous orbital phase. Consequently, their power spectrum varies over time, and the resulting GWB can appear nonstationary. In this work, we estimate the amplitude of time-dependent fluctuations in the GWB power spectrum as a function of the eccentricity of the binaries. Specifically, we focus on the GWB produced by a population of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHB) that should be observable by pulsar timing arrays (PTA). We show that a large population of homogeneously distributed equal SMBHBs produces nonstationary features that are undetectable by current PTA datasets. However, using more realistic and astrophysically motivated populations of SMBHBs, we show that the nonstationarity might become very large and detectable, especially in the case of more massive and eccentric populations. In particular, when one binary is slightly brighter than the GWB, we demonstrate that time fluctuations can become significant. This is also true for individual binary systems with a low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) relative to the GWB (SNR $\approx$ 1), which standard data analysis methods would struggle to detect. The detection of nonstationary features in the GWB could indicate the presence of some relatively bright GW sources in eccentric orbits, offering new insights into the origins of the signal.
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Submitted 2 December, 2024;
originally announced December 2024.
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Impact of the observation frequency coverage on the significance of a gravitational wave background detection in PTA data
Authors:
Irene Ferranti,
Mikel Falxa,
Alberto Sesana,
Aurelien Chalumeau,
Nataliya Porayko,
Golam Shaifullah,
Ismael Cognard,
Lucas Guillemot,
Michael Kramer,
Kuo Liu,
Gilles Theureau
Abstract:
Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) collaborations gather high-precision timing measurements of pulsars with the aim of detecting gravitational wave (GW) signals. A major challenge lies in the identification and characterization of the different sources of noise that may hamper their sensitivity to GWs. The presence of time-correlated noise that resembles the target signal might give rise to degeneracies th…
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Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) collaborations gather high-precision timing measurements of pulsars with the aim of detecting gravitational wave (GW) signals. A major challenge lies in the identification and characterization of the different sources of noise that may hamper their sensitivity to GWs. The presence of time-correlated noise that resembles the target signal might give rise to degeneracies that can directly impact the detection statistics. In this work, we focus on the covariance that exists between a "chromatic" dispersion measure (DM) noise and an "achromatic" stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB). "Chromatic" associated to the DM noise means that its amplitude depends on the frequency of the incoming pulsar photons measured by the radio-telescope. Several frequency channels are then required to accurately characterise its chromatic features and when the coverage of incoming frequency is poor, it becomes impossible to disentangle chromatic and achromatic noise contributions. In this paper, we explore this situation by injecting realistic GWB into 100 realizations of two mock versions of the second data release (DR2) of the European PTA (EPTA), characterized by different frequency coverage. The first dataset is a faithful copy of DR2, in which the first half of the data is dominated by only one frequency channel of observation; the second one is identical except for a more homogeneous frequency coverage across the full dataset. We show that for 91% of the injections, a better frequency coverage leads to an improved statistical significance (~1.3dex higher log Bayes factor on average) of the GWB and a better characterization of its properties. We propose a metric to quantify the degeneracy between DM and GWB parameters and show that it is correlated with a loss of significance for the recovered GWB and an increase in the GWB bias towards a higher and flatter spectral shape.
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Submitted 23 October, 2024;
originally announced October 2024.
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Modeling non stationary noise in pulsar timing array data analysis
Authors:
Mikel Falxa,
J. Antoniadis,
D. J. Champion,
I. Cognard,
G. Desvignes,
L. Guillemot,
H. Hu,
G. Janssen,
J. Jawor,
R. Karuppusamy,
M. J. Keith,
M. Kramer,
K. Lackeos,
K. Liu,
J. W. McKee,
D. Perrodin,
S. A. Sanidas,
G. M. Shaifullah,
G. Theureau
Abstract:
Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) collaborations recently reported evidence for the presence of a gravitational wave background (GWB) in their datasets. The main candidate that is expected to produce such a GWB is the population of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHB). Some analyses showed that the recovered signal may exhibit time-dependent properties, i.e. non-stationarity. In this paper, we propose…
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Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) collaborations recently reported evidence for the presence of a gravitational wave background (GWB) in their datasets. The main candidate that is expected to produce such a GWB is the population of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHB). Some analyses showed that the recovered signal may exhibit time-dependent properties, i.e. non-stationarity. In this paper, we propose an approximated non-stationary Gaussian process (GP) model obtained from the perturbation of stationary processes. The presented method is applied to the second data release of the European pulsar timing array to search for non-stationary features in the GWB. We analyzed the data in different time slices and showed that the inferred properties of the GWB evolve with time. We find no evidence for such non-stationary behavior and the Bayes factor in favor of the latter is $\mathcal{B}^{NS}_{S} = 1.5$. We argue that the evolution of the GWB properties most likely comes from the \mf{improvement of the observation cadence} with time and \mf{better} characterization of the noise of individual pulsars. Such non-stationary GWB could also be produced by the leakage of non-stationary features in the noise of individual pulsars or by the presence of an eccentric single source.
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Submitted 6 May, 2024;
originally announced May 2024.
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Forecasting the sensitivity of Pulsar Timing Arrays to gravitational wave backgrounds
Authors:
Stanislav Babak,
Mikel Falxa,
Gabriele Franciolini,
Mauro Pieroni
Abstract:
Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) observations hinted towards the existence of a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) in the nHz frequency band. Still, the nature of the SGWB signal cannot be confidently inferred from current data, and the leading explanation invokes mergers of supermassive black holes. If confirmed, such discovery would not only represent a turning point in our understanding o…
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Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) observations hinted towards the existence of a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) in the nHz frequency band. Still, the nature of the SGWB signal cannot be confidently inferred from current data, and the leading explanation invokes mergers of supermassive black holes. If confirmed, such discovery would not only represent a turning point in our understanding of astrophysics, but it may severely limit the capability of searching for additional cosmological sources in the nHz frequency range. In this work, we build a simple framework to forecast the sensitivity of future PTA configurations and assess the parameter estimation of SGWB, which could consist of several contributions. We release the python code fastPTA implementing this framework and ready to use.
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Submitted 3 April, 2024;
originally announced April 2024.
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Comparing recent PTA results on the nanohertz stochastic gravitational wave background
Authors:
The International Pulsar Timing Array Collaboration,
G. Agazie,
J. Antoniadis,
A. Anumarlapudi,
A. M. Archibald,
P. Arumugam,
S. Arumugam,
Z. Arzoumanian,
J. Askew,
S. Babak,
M. Bagchi,
M. Bailes,
A. -S. Bak Nielsen,
P. T. Baker,
C. G. Bassa,
A. Bathula,
B. Bécsy,
A. Berthereau,
N. D. R. Bhat,
L. Blecha,
M. Bonetti,
E. Bortolas,
A. Brazier,
P. R. Brook,
M. Burgay
, et al. (220 additional authors not shown)
Abstract:
The Australian, Chinese, European, Indian, and North American pulsar timing array (PTA) collaborations recently reported, at varying levels, evidence for the presence of a nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB). Given that each PTA made different choices in modeling their data, we perform a comparison of the GWB and individual pulsar noise parameters across the results reported from the PTA…
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The Australian, Chinese, European, Indian, and North American pulsar timing array (PTA) collaborations recently reported, at varying levels, evidence for the presence of a nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB). Given that each PTA made different choices in modeling their data, we perform a comparison of the GWB and individual pulsar noise parameters across the results reported from the PTAs that constitute the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA). We show that despite making different modeling choices, there is no significant difference in the GWB parameters that are measured by the different PTAs, agreeing within $1σ$. The pulsar noise parameters are also consistent between different PTAs for the majority of the pulsars included in these analyses. We bridge the differences in modeling choices by adopting a standardized noise model for all pulsars and PTAs, finding that under this model there is a reduction in the tension in the pulsar noise parameters. As part of this reanalysis, we "extended" each PTA's data set by adding extra pulsars that were not timed by that PTA. Under these extensions, we find better constraints on the GWB amplitude and a higher signal-to-noise ratio for the Hellings and Downs correlations. These extensions serve as a prelude to the benefits offered by a full combination of data across all pulsars in the IPTA, i.e., the IPTA's Data Release 3, which will involve not just adding in additional pulsars, but also including data from all three PTAs where any given pulsar is timed by more than as single PTA.
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Submitted 1 September, 2023;
originally announced September 2023.
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The second data release from the European Pulsar Timing Array: VI. Challenging the ultralight dark matter paradigm
Authors:
Clemente Smarra,
Boris Goncharov,
Enrico Barausse,
J. Antoniadis,
S. Babak,
A. -S. Bak Nielsen,
C. G. Bassa,
A. Berthereau,
M. Bonetti,
E. Bortolas,
P. R. Brook,
M. Burgay,
R. N. Caballero,
A. Chalumeau,
D. J. Champion,
S. Chanlaridis,
S. Chen,
I. Cognard,
G. Desvignes,
M. Falxa,
R. D. Ferdman,
A. Franchini,
J. R. Gair,
E. Graikou,
J. -M. Grie
, et al. (46 additional authors not shown)
Abstract:
Pulsar Timing Array experiments probe the presence of possible scalar or pseudoscalar ultralight dark matter particles through decade-long timing of an ensemble of galactic millisecond radio pulsars. With the second data release of the European Pulsar Timing Array, we focus on the most robust scenario, in which dark matter interacts only gravitationally with ordinary baryonic matter. Our results s…
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Pulsar Timing Array experiments probe the presence of possible scalar or pseudoscalar ultralight dark matter particles through decade-long timing of an ensemble of galactic millisecond radio pulsars. With the second data release of the European Pulsar Timing Array, we focus on the most robust scenario, in which dark matter interacts only gravitationally with ordinary baryonic matter. Our results show that ultralight particles with masses $10^{-24.0}~\text{eV} \lesssim m \lesssim 10^{-23.3}~\text{eV}$ cannot constitute $100\%$ of the measured local dark matter density, but can have at most local density $ρ\lesssim 0.3$ GeV/cm$^3$.
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Submitted 25 October, 2023; v1 submitted 28 June, 2023;
originally announced June 2023.
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The second data release from the European Pulsar Timing Array: IV. Implications for massive black holes, dark matter and the early Universe
Authors:
J. Antoniadis,
P. Arumugam,
S. Arumugam,
P. Auclair,
S. Babak,
M. Bagchi,
A. -S. Bak Nielsen,
E. Barausse,
C. G. Bassa,
A. Bathula,
A. Berthereau,
M. Bonetti,
E. Bortolas,
P. R. Brook,
M. Burgay,
R. N. Caballero,
C. Caprini,
A. Chalumeau,
D. J. Champion,
S. Chanlaridis,
S. Chen,
I. Cognard,
M. Crisostomi,
S. Dandapat,
D. Deb
, et al. (89 additional authors not shown)
Abstract:
The European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA) and Indian Pulsar Timing Array (InPTA) collaborations have measured a low-frequency common signal in the combination of their second and first data releases respectively, with the correlation properties of a gravitational wave background (GWB). Such signal may have its origin in a number of physical processes including a cosmic population of inspiralling sup…
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The European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA) and Indian Pulsar Timing Array (InPTA) collaborations have measured a low-frequency common signal in the combination of their second and first data releases respectively, with the correlation properties of a gravitational wave background (GWB). Such signal may have its origin in a number of physical processes including a cosmic population of inspiralling supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs); inflation, phase transitions, cosmic strings and tensor mode generation by non-linear evolution of scalar perturbations in the early Universe; oscillations of the Galactic potential in the presence of ultra-light dark matter (ULDM). At the current stage of emerging evidence, it is impossible to discriminate among the different origins. Therefore, in this paper, we consider each process separately, and investigate the implications of the signal under the hypothesis that it is generated by that specific process. We find that the signal is consistent with a cosmic population of inspiralling SMBHBs, and its relatively high amplitude can be used to place constraints on binary merger timescales and the SMBH-host galaxy scaling relations. If this origin is confirmed, this is the first direct evidence that SMBHBs merge in nature, adding an important observational piece to the puzzle of structure formation and galaxy evolution. As for early Universe processes, the measurement would place tight constraints on the cosmic string tension and on the level of turbulence developed by first-order phase transitions. Other processes would require non-standard scenarios, such as a blue-tilted inflationary spectrum or an excess in the primordial spectrum of scalar perturbations at large wavenumbers. Finally, a ULDM origin of the detected signal is disfavoured, which leads to direct constraints on the abundance of ULDM in our Galaxy.
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Submitted 15 May, 2024; v1 submitted 28 June, 2023;
originally announced June 2023.
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The second data release from the European Pulsar Timing Array V. Search for continuous gravitational wave signals
Authors:
J. Antoniadis,
P. Arumugam,
S. Arumugam,
S. Babak,
M. Bagchi,
A. S. Bak Nielsen,
C. G. Bassa,
A. Bathula,
A. Berthereau,
M. Bonetti,
E. Bortolas,
P. R. Brook,
M. Burgay,
R. N. Caballero,
A. Chalumeau,
D. J. Champion,
S. Chanlaridis,
S. Chen,
I. Cognard,
S. Dandapat,
D. Deb,
S. Desai,
G. Desvignes,
N. Dhanda-Batra,
C. Dwivedi
, et al. (75 additional authors not shown)
Abstract:
We present the results of a search for continuous gravitational wave signals (CGWs) in the second data release (DR2) of the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA) collaboration. The most significant candidate event from this search has a gravitational wave frequency of 4-5 nHz. Such a signal could be generated by a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) in the local Universe. We present the results o…
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We present the results of a search for continuous gravitational wave signals (CGWs) in the second data release (DR2) of the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA) collaboration. The most significant candidate event from this search has a gravitational wave frequency of 4-5 nHz. Such a signal could be generated by a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) in the local Universe. We present the results of a follow-up analysis of this candidate using both Bayesian and frequentist methods. The Bayesian analysis gives a Bayes factor of 4 in favor of the presence of the CGW over a common uncorrelated noise process, while the frequentist analysis estimates the p-value of the candidate to be 1%, also assuming the presence of common uncorrelated red noise. However, comparing a model that includes both a CGW and a gravitational wave background (GWB) to a GWB only, the Bayes factor in favour of the CGW model is only 0.7. Therefore, we cannot conclusively determine the origin of the observed feature, but we cannot rule it out as a CGW source. We present results of simulations that demonstrate that data containing a weak gravitational wave background can be misinterpreted as data including a CGW and vice versa, providing two plausible explanations of the EPTA DR2 data. Further investigations combining data from all PTA collaborations will be needed to reveal the true origin of this feature.
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Submitted 25 June, 2024; v1 submitted 28 June, 2023;
originally announced June 2023.
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The second data release from the European Pulsar Timing Array I. The dataset and timing analysis
Authors:
J. Antoniadis,
S. Babak,
A. -S. Bak Nielsen,
C. G. Bassa,
A. Berthereau,
M. Bonetti,
E. Bortolas,
P. R. Brook,
M. Burgay,
R. N. Caballero,
A. Chalumeau,
D. J. Champion,
S. Chanlaridis,
S. Chen,
I. Cognard,
G. Desvignes,
M. Falxa,
R. D. Ferdman,
A. Franchini,
J. R. Gair,
B. Goncharov,
E. Graikou,
J. -M. Grießmeier,
L. Guillemot,
Y. J. Guo
, et al. (44 additional authors not shown)
Abstract:
Pulsar timing arrays offer a probe of the low-frequency gravitational wave spectrum (1 - 100 nanohertz), which is intimately connected to a number of markers that can uniquely trace the formation and evolution of the Universe. We present the dataset and the results of the timing analysis from the second data release of the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA). The dataset contains high-precision pu…
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Pulsar timing arrays offer a probe of the low-frequency gravitational wave spectrum (1 - 100 nanohertz), which is intimately connected to a number of markers that can uniquely trace the formation and evolution of the Universe. We present the dataset and the results of the timing analysis from the second data release of the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA). The dataset contains high-precision pulsar timing data from 25 millisecond pulsars collected with the five largest radio telescopes in Europe, as well as the Large European Array for Pulsars. The dataset forms the foundation for the search for gravitational waves by the EPTA, presented in associated papers. We describe the dataset and present the results of the frequentist and Bayesian pulsar timing analysis for individual millisecond pulsars that have been observed over the last ~25 years. We discuss the improvements to the individual pulsar parameter estimates, as well as new measurements of the physical properties of these pulsars and their companions. This data release extends the dataset from EPTA Data Release 1 up to the beginning of 2021, with individual pulsar datasets with timespans ranging from 14 to 25 years. These lead to improved constraints on annual parallaxes, secular variation of the orbital period, and Shapiro delay for a number of sources. Based on these results, we derived astrophysical parameters that include distances, transverse velocities, binary pulsar masses, and annual orbital parallaxes.
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Submitted 28 June, 2023;
originally announced June 2023.
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Practical approaches to analyzing PTA data: Cosmic strings with six pulsars
Authors:
Hippolyte Quelquejay Leclere,
Pierre Auclair,
Stanislav Babak,
Aurélien Chalumeau,
Danièle A. Steer,
J. Antoniadis,
A. -S. Bak Nielsen,
C. G. Bassa,
A. Berthereau,
M. Bonetti,
E. Bortolas,
P. R. Brook,
M. Burgay,
R. N. Caballero,
D. J. Champion,
S. Chanlaridis,
S. Chen,
I. Cognard,
G. Desvignes,
M. Falxa,
R. D. Ferdman,
A. Franchini,
J. R. Gair,
B. Goncharov,
E. Graikou
, et al. (47 additional authors not shown)
Abstract:
We search for a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) generated by a network of cosmic strings using six millisecond pulsars from Data Release 2 (DR2) of the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA). We perform a Bayesian analysis considering two models for the network of cosmic string loops, and compare it to a simple power-law model which is expected from the population of supermassive blac…
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We search for a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) generated by a network of cosmic strings using six millisecond pulsars from Data Release 2 (DR2) of the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA). We perform a Bayesian analysis considering two models for the network of cosmic string loops, and compare it to a simple power-law model which is expected from the population of supermassive black hole binaries. Our main strong assumption is that the previously reported common red noise process is a SGWB. We find that the one-parameter cosmic string model is slightly favored over a power-law model thanks to its simplicity. If we assume a two-component stochastic signal in the data (supermassive black hole binary population and the signal from cosmic strings), we get a $95\%$ upper limit on the string tension of $\log_{10}(Gμ) < -9.9$ ($-10.5$) for the two cosmic string models we consider. In extended two-parameter string models, we were unable to constrain the number of kinks. We test two approximate and fast Bayesian data analysis methods against the most rigorous analysis and find consistent results. These two fast and efficient methods are applicable to all SGWBs, independent of their source, and will be crucial for analysis of extended data sets.
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Submitted 3 May, 2024; v1 submitted 21 June, 2023;
originally announced June 2023.
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Searching for continuous Gravitational Waves in the second data release of the International Pulsar Timing Array
Authors:
M. Falxa,
S. Babak,
P. T. Baker,
B. Bécsy,
A. Chalumeau,
S. Chen,
Z. Chen,
N. J. Cornish,
L. Guillemot,
J. S. Hazboun,
C. M. F. Mingarelli,
A. Parthasarathy,
A. Petiteau,
N. S. Pol,
A. Sesana,
S. B. Spolaor,
S. R. Taylor,
G. Theureau,
M. Vallisneri,
S. J. Vigeland,
C. A. Witt,
X. Zhu,
J. Antoniadis,
Z. Arzoumanian,
M. Bailes
, et al. (102 additional authors not shown)
Abstract:
The International Pulsar Timing Array 2nd data release is the combination of datasets from worldwide collaborations. In this study, we search for continuous waves: gravitational wave signals produced by individual supermassive black hole binaries in the local universe. We consider binaries on circular orbits and neglect the evolution of orbital frequency over the observational span. We find no evi…
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The International Pulsar Timing Array 2nd data release is the combination of datasets from worldwide collaborations. In this study, we search for continuous waves: gravitational wave signals produced by individual supermassive black hole binaries in the local universe. We consider binaries on circular orbits and neglect the evolution of orbital frequency over the observational span. We find no evidence for such signals and set sky averaged 95% upper limits on their amplitude h 95 . The most sensitive frequency is 10nHz with h 95 = 9.1 10-15 . We achieved the best upper limit to date at low and high frequencies of the PTA band thanks to improved effective cadence of observations. In our analysis, we have taken into account the recently discovered common red noise process, which has an impact at low frequencies. We also find that the peculiar noise features present in some pulsars data must be taken into account to reduce the false alarm. We show that using custom noise models is essential in searching for continuous gravitational wave signals and setting the upper limit.
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Submitted 19 March, 2023;
originally announced March 2023.
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Quality over Quantity: Optimizing pulsar timing array analysis for stochastic and continuous gravitational wave signals
Authors:
Lorenzo Speri,
Nataliya K. Porayko,
Mikel Falxa,
Siyuan Chen,
Jonathan R. Gair,
Alberto Sesana,
Stephen R. Taylor
Abstract:
The search for gravitational waves using Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs) is a computationally expensive complex analysis that involves source-specific noise studies. As more pulsars are added to the arrays, this stage of PTA analysis will become increasingly challenging. Therefore, optimizing the number of included pulsars is crucial to reduce the computational burden of data analysis. Here, we presen…
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The search for gravitational waves using Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs) is a computationally expensive complex analysis that involves source-specific noise studies. As more pulsars are added to the arrays, this stage of PTA analysis will become increasingly challenging. Therefore, optimizing the number of included pulsars is crucial to reduce the computational burden of data analysis. Here, we present a suite of methods to rank pulsars for use within the scope of PTA analysis. First, we use the maximization of the signal-to-noise ratio as a proxy to select pulsars. With this method, we target the detection of stochastic and continuous gravitational wave signals. Next, we present a ranking that minimizes the coupling between spatial correlation signatures, namely monopolar, dipolar, and Hellings & Downs correlations. Finally, we also explore how to combine these two methods. We test these approaches against mock data using frequentist and Bayesian hypothesis testing. For equal-noise pulsars, we find that an optimal selection leads to an increase in the log-Bayes factor two times steeper than a random selection for the hypothesis test of a gravitational wave background versus a common uncorrelated red noise process. For the same test but for a realistic EPTA dataset, a subset of 25 pulsars selected out of 40 can provide a log-likelihood ratio that is $89\%$ of the total, implying that an optimally selected subset of pulsars can yield results comparable to those obtained from the whole array. We expect these selection methods to play a crucial role in future PTA data combinations.
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Submitted 6 November, 2022;
originally announced November 2022.
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Adaptive Kernel Density Estimation proposal in gravitational wave data analysis
Authors:
Mikel Falxa,
Stanislav Babak,
Maude Le Jeune
Abstract:
Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is frequently used within Bayesian framework to sample the target posterior distribution. Its efficiency strongly depends on the proposal used to build the chain. The best jump proposal is the one that closely resembles the unknown target distribution, therefore we suggest an adaptive proposal based on Kernel Density Estimation (KDE). We group parameters of the mo…
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Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is frequently used within Bayesian framework to sample the target posterior distribution. Its efficiency strongly depends on the proposal used to build the chain. The best jump proposal is the one that closely resembles the unknown target distribution, therefore we suggest an adaptive proposal based on Kernel Density Estimation (KDE). We group parameters of the model according to their correlation and build KDE based on the already accepted points for each group. We adapt the KDE-based proposal until it stabilizes. We argue that such a proposal could be helpful in applications where the data volume is increasing and in the hyper-model sampling. We tested it on several astrophysical datasets (IPTA and LISA) and have shown that in some cases KDE-based proposal also helps to reduce the autocorrelation length of the chains. The efficiency of this proposal is reduces in case of the strong correlations between a large group of parameters.
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Submitted 9 August, 2022;
originally announced August 2022.