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arXiv:2608.20101v1 [math.PR] 20 Aug 2026

Largest bulk gap of the complex Ginibre ensemble

Philippe Moreillon
Abstract

Let Mn(B)M_{n}(B) be the largest distance from an eigenvalue of an n×nn\times n complex Ginibre matrix, with entries of variance 1/n1/n, lying in a fixed bulk set BB compactly contained in the unit disk and of planar area |B||B|, to its nearest other eigenvalue. Lopatto and Otto proved that nMn(B)/(4logn)1/41\sqrt{n}M_{n}(B)/(4\log n)^{1/4}\to 1 in probability. Here we prove that βn3/4(nMn(B)βn1/4)\beta_{n}^{3/4}\bigl(\sqrt{n}\,M_{n}(B)-\beta_{n}^{1/4}\bigr) converges in distribution to a Gumbel random variable, and we determine βn\beta_{n} explicitly.

Keywords. Complex Ginibre ensemble; extreme spacing; Gumbel law; reduced Palm process; hole probability.

2020 Mathematics Subject Classification. Primary 60B20; secondary 60G70, 60G55.

1 Introduction and main results

1.1 The complex Ginibre ensemble

The complex Ginibre ensemble is a non-Hermitian random matrix model. Introduced by Ginibre in 1965 [12], it consists of matrices with independent centered complex Gaussian entries of variance 1/n1/n. We refer to the monograph of Byun and Forrester [3] for an account of recent developments on the subject.

The unordered complex eigenvalues z1,,znz_{1},\ldots,z_{n} have joint probability measure

nn(n+1)/2πnj=1nj!exp(nj=1n|zj|2)1i<jn|zizj|2j=1nd2zj.\frac{n^{n(n+1)/2}}{\pi^{n}\prod_{j=1}^{n}j!}\exp\!\left(-n\sum_{j=1}^{n}|z_{j}|^{2}\right)\prod_{1\leq i<j\leq n}|z_{i}-z_{j}|^{2}\prod_{j=1}^{n}\,\mathrm{d}^{2}z_{j}. (1)

As is well-known, the associated point process is determinantal, and as nn\to\infty, the empirical eigenvalue measure converges to the uniform probability measure on the unit disk. Thus a typical bulk nearest-neighbour distance is of order n1/2n^{-1/2}. The present paper concerns a substantially more delicate question: how large can such a distance be among all eigenvalues lying in a prescribed portion of the bulk?

1.2 Extreme spacings in one and two dimensions

The smallest gaps between nearest-neighbour eigenvalues arise from exceptionally close pairs and therefore require detailed knowledge of the asymptotic behavior of the correlation kernel. The largest gaps, by contrast, are created by exceptionally isolated eigenvalues and are governed by a large-deviation event: a disk centred at such an eigenvalue, with radius slightly larger than n1/2n^{-1/2}, must contain no other eigenvalue. The precise large-nn asymptotics of this hole probability were recently obtained in [5], and we will rely on this result.

The study of extreme eigenvalue spacings was initiated by Vinson [22] and now has a substantial history, particularly in dimension one. For the CUE and GUE, Ben Arous and Bourgade [2] obtained the joint limiting laws of the smallest gaps and the leading-order term of the largest gaps. Soshnikov’s earlier work [21] established Poisson statistics for the smallest spacings of a broad class of translation-invariant determinantal processes. The largest gaps were subsequently resolved at the fluctuation scale by Feng and Wei [9]: after a precise centering, the largest gaps of the CUE and GUE form a Poisson process and the ordered gaps have generalized Gumbel laws. More recently, Charlier [8] obtained sharp largest-gap asymptotics for general unitary-invariant Hermitian ensembles.

In dimension two, the theory is much younger. Shi and Jiang [19] proved that the smallest gaps of the complex Ginibre ensemble are of order n3/4n^{-3/4} and converge, after rescaling, to Poisson statistics. This result was extended by Charlier [7] to general random normal matrices. The same scale and limiting Poisson statistics were obtained by Lopatto and Meeker [16] for the non-real bulk eigenvalues of the real Ginibre ensemble. Related Poisson limits for the smallest distances between zeros of Gaussian analytic functions on compact Riemann surfaces, together with an analogue for the planar Gaussian entire function, were established by Feng and Yao [10]. On the opposite side of the spacing spectrum, Otto [18] proved a Poisson limit for points with unusually large nearest-neighbour distance in the infinite Ginibre process observed through expanding windows, and deduced the leading scale of the maximum. Lopatto and Otto [17] then initiated the study of the largest bulk nearest-neighbour gap in the complex Ginibre ensemble. Writing Mn(B)M_{n}(B) for the largest nearest-neighbour distance among eigenvalues anchored over a fixed bulk set BB, as made precise in (5), they proved that

nMn(B)(4logn)1/41in probability.\frac{\sqrt{n}M_{n}(B)}{(4\log n)^{1/4}}\longrightarrow 1\qquad\text{in probability}. (2)

Their work also provided a source of inspiration for the present work.

1.3 Repulsion, hole probabilities, and the two extreme scales

As mentioned earlier, the smallest and largest nearest-neighbour distances in the Ginibre ensemble (1) occupy the very different scales

n3/4andn1/2(4logn)1/4,n^{-3/4}\qquad\hbox{and}\qquad n^{-1/2}(4\log n)^{1/4},

respectively, and obtaining precise information on the fluctuations of the largest gap requires asymptotics for the hole probability on a disk of radius larger than n1/2n^{-1/2}.

Disk-hole probabilities for the Ginibre ensemble have a long history. Early contributions to this problem include Forrester [11] and Jancovici, Lebowitz and Manificat [14]. Adhikari and Reddy [1] and Charlier [6] studied hole probabilities for general shapes at leading order. For the much finer precision required here, Charlier’s analysis of disk counting probabilities [5] provides the precise expansion, including the order-one term, that underlies the analytic part of the present work: as nn\to\infty with rr fixed, he obtained

(#{|zj|<r}=0)=exp(C1n2+C2nlogn+C3n+C4n+C5logn+C6+O(n1/12)),\displaystyle\mathbb{P}(\#\{|z_{j}|<r\}=0)=\exp\left(C_{1}n^{2}+C_{2}n\log n+C_{3}n+C_{4}\sqrt{n}+C_{5}\log n+C_{6}+O(n^{-1/12})\right), (3)

where

C1=r44,C2=r22,C3=r2(1log(r2π)),\displaystyle C_{1}=-\frac{r^{4}}{4},\quad C_{2}=-\frac{r^{2}}{2},\quad C_{3}=r^{2}\left(1-\log(r\sqrt{2\pi})\right),
C4=a1r,C5=13,C6=a0+23logr,\displaystyle C_{4}=a_{1}r,\quad C_{5}=\frac{1}{3},\quad C_{6}=a_{0}+\frac{2}{3}\log r,

and a1,a0a_{1},a_{0} are defined in (9) and (12). We also mention that a result analogous to (3) for the spherical ensemble is available in [4].

1.4 The extreme-value mechanism and the contribution of this paper

Our aim is to pass from the leading law (2) to a complete extreme-value theorem. We identify the canonical tail transform, prove a Gumbel limit for the largest gap, and determine every deterministic term in the fourth-power centering down to order one. We also obtain the limiting laws of all fixed extreme order statistics. The answer is most naturally stated in terms of the reduced-Palm hole probability of the infinite Ginibre process. We write ξ0,!\xi_{\infty}^{0,!} for the process governed by the reduced Palm distribution at the origin, with the distinguished Palm point removed. If a point is fixed at the centre of a disk, the microscopic event that its nearest neighbour lies farther than RR is

q(R)={ξ0,!(DR)=0}.q(R)=\mathbb{P}\{\xi_{\infty}^{0,!}(D_{R})=0\}.

Consequently the correct analogue of the exponential tail transform for independent random variables is Ψ(R)=logq(R)\Psi(R)=-\log q(R). At a physical radius rr, the expected number of anchors with an empty surrounding disk is asymptotic to

n|B|πq(nr).\frac{n|B|}{\pi}q(\sqrt{n}\,r).

Choosing rr by Ψ(nr)=log(n|B|/π)+x\Psi(\sqrt{n}\,r)=\log(n|B|/\pi)+x therefore makes this mean tend to exe^{-x}, suggesting both the Poisson law for exceedances and the Gumbel law for the maximum. Theorem 1.1 makes this heuristic exact.

Two features are specific to the required precision. First, the disk is anchored at an eigenvalue. The relevant quantity is therefore the reduced-Palm hole probability qq, rather than the ordinary Ginibre hole probability HH. For Ginibre the exact identity

q(R)=eR2H(R)q(R)=e^{R^{2}}H(R)

shows that confusing the two leaves the leading R4/4R^{4}/4 term unchanged but alters the entire R2R^{2} correction. It is thus invisible in (2) and fatal at Gumbel accuracy. Second, one needs the large-hole expansion with an o(1)o(1) error after inserting the growing microscopic radius R(logn)1/4R\asymp(\log n)^{1/4}. A fixed-parameter asymptotic cannot simply be evaluated along this regime. We derive the necessary compact-uniform form of Charlier’s disk-hole analysis [5], and then compare the finite and infinite reduced-Palm determinants with exponentially small error.

The result exhibits a useful dimensional contrast. In the sine process, the logarithm of a large interval probability is quadratic in its length; this produces largest one-dimensional bulk gaps on the scale logn\sqrt{\log n} times the typical spacing. For the infinite Ginibre process, the logarithm of a large disk probability begins with R4/4-R^{4}/4; the maximal nearest-neighbour distance is therefore of order (logn)1/4(\log n)^{1/4} times the typical two-dimensional spacing. Beyond this leading exponent, the terms R2logRR^{2}\log R, R2R^{2}, RR, logR\log R, and the constant term all survive, after inversion, at successively smaller but still deterministic orders. Keeping this entire hierarchy is what yields the explicit centering in Theorem 1.3.

Let us summarize the main contributions of the paper. First, we express the limiting law in the exact tail coordinate Ψ\Psi, which removes all ambiguity from the normalization. Second, we prove a sharp expansion of the Ginibre reduced-Palm hole probability, including explicit convergent integral formulae for the linear and constant coefficients. Third, we transfer the adaptive-radius Poisson approximation of [17] to the single deterministic radius selected by qq, uniformly throughout a fixed bulk set. Finally, we invert the hole expansion and obtain a fourth-power normalization whose deterministic centering is accurate through order one.

The exact tail coordinate also clarifies which part of the argument is probabilistic and which part is analytic. The probabilistic input asserts that eigenvalues isolated at an adaptively chosen radius form, asymptotically, a Poisson process. The analytic input identifies that adaptive radius with a single deterministic radius, uniformly over the prescribed bulk set, and then evaluates it sharply. The latter step requires substantially more than the leading large-hole rate. An error of size o(R2)o(R^{2}), for example, is enough to recover (2) but is much too large to locate a Gumbel fluctuation, whose change in the logarithmic tail is of order one. Our expansion retains all terms that remain visible after this inversion.

1.5 Organization and notation

The paper is organized as follows. The remainder of this section fixes the normalization and states the principal results. Section 2 recalls the finite and infinite Ginibre kernels, identifies the reduced-Palm product, and records the Poisson input. Section 3 proves the full reduced-Palm hole expansion. Section 4 compares the finite and infinite reduced-Palm determinants uniformly for physical radii r=O(n1/2(logn)1/4)r=O(n^{-1/2}(\log n)^{1/4}). Section 5 passes from the adaptive Poisson theorem to a common deterministic threshold and inverts the tail asymptotics. The compact-uniform incomplete-gamma summation is proved in Appendix A.

Let Xn=(xij)i,j=1nX_{n}=(x_{ij})_{i,j=1}^{n}, where the xijx_{ij} are independent centered complex Gaussian variables of variance 1/n1/n, each with density (n/π)en|z|2d2z(n/\pi)e^{-n|z|^{2}}\,\mathrm{d}^{2}z, and write ξn\xi_{n} for its eigenvalue point process. Thus the circular-law droplet is the unit disk, and the bulk intensity in these coordinates is asymptotic to n/πn/\pi. For aa\in\mathbb{C} and r0r\geq 0, write

Dr(a)={z:|za|<r},Dr=Dr(0),D_{r}(a)=\{z\in\mathbb{C}:|z-a|<r\},\qquad D_{r}=D_{r}(0),

and write |A||A| for the planar Lebesgue measure of a Borel set AA. Throughout, BB\subset\mathbb{C} is a fixed bounded Borel set such that

0<|B|<,|B|=0,B¯{z:|z|<1}.0<|B|<\infty,\qquad|\partial B|=0,\qquad\overline{B}\subset\{z:|z|<1\}. (4)

Define the anchored nearest-neighbour gaps and their maximum by

dn(z)=minwξn{z}|zw|,Mn(B)=maxzξnBdn(z),d_{n}(z)=\min_{w\in\xi_{n}\setminus\{z\}}|z-w|,\qquad M_{n}(B)=\max_{z\in\xi_{n}\cap B}d_{n}(z), (5)

with the maximum over the empty set defined as 00. Neighbours are taken from the full spectrum, not merely from BB.

Let ξ\xi_{\infty} denote the infinite Ginibre process of intensity 1/π1/\pi, and let ξ0,!\xi_{\infty}^{0,!} denote its reduced Palm process at the origin, with the distinguished Palm point removed. The probability that a point fixed at the origin has no other point within distance rr is

q(r):={ξ0,!(Dr)=0}=k=2Γ(k,r2)Γ(k),Γ(k,x)=xtk1etdt.q(r):=\mathbb{P}\{\xi_{\infty}^{0,!}(D_{r})=0\}=\prod_{k=2}^{\infty}\frac{\Gamma(k,r^{2})}{\Gamma(k)},\qquad\Gamma(k,x)=\int_{x}^{\infty}t^{k-1}e^{-t}\,\mathrm{d}t. (6)

The product converges locally uniformly, and qq is continuous and strictly decreasing from 11 to 00; see Lemma 2.2. Consequently

Ψ(r):=logq(r),r0,\Psi(r):=-\log q(r),\qquad r\geq 0,

is a continuous strictly increasing bijection of [0,)[0,\infty) onto itself.

Theorem 1.1 (Exact tail-transform normalization).

Under (4), for every xx\in\mathbb{R},

limn{Ψ(nMn(B))logn|B|πx}=exp{ex}.\lim_{n\to\infty}\mathbb{P}\!\left\{\Psi(\sqrt{n}\,M_{n}(B))-\log\frac{n|B|}{\pi}\leq x\right\}=\exp\{-e^{-x}\}. (7)

To extract an explicit centering from Theorem 1.1, we first determine the reduced-Palm hole probability sharply. Set

a2\displaystyle a_{2} =212log(2π),\displaystyle=2-\frac{1}{2}\log(2\pi), (8)
a1\displaystyle a_{1} =2{0log(erfcy2)𝑑y+0[log(erfcy2)+y2+logy+log(2π)]𝑑y},\displaystyle=\sqrt{2}\left\{\int_{-\infty}^{0}\log\!\left(\frac{\operatorname{erfc}y}{2}\right)\,\mathrm{d}y+\int_{0}^{\infty}\left[\log\!\left(\frac{\operatorname{erfc}y}{2}\right)+y^{2}+\log y+\log(2\sqrt{\pi})\right]\,\mathrm{d}y\right\}, (9)

and define

J=\displaystyle J_{-}={} 0[2ylog(erfcy2)+ey2(15y2)3πerfcy]𝑑y,\displaystyle\int_{-\infty}^{0}\left[2y\log\!\left(\frac{\operatorname{erfc}y}{2}\right)+\frac{e^{-y^{2}}(1-5y^{2})}{3\sqrt{\pi}\,\operatorname{erfc}y}\right]\,\mathrm{d}y, (10)
J+=\displaystyle J_{+}={} 0[2ylog(erfcy2)+ey2(15y2)3πerfcy+113y3+2ylogy+(12+2log(2π))y]𝑑y,\displaystyle\int_{0}^{\infty}\left[2y\log\!\left(\frac{\operatorname{erfc}y}{2}\right)+\frac{e^{-y^{2}}(1-5y^{2})}{3\sqrt{\pi}\,\operatorname{erfc}y}+\frac{11}{3}y^{3}+2y\log y+\left(\frac{1}{2}+2\log(2\sqrt{\pi})\right)y\right]\,\mathrm{d}y, (11)
a0=\displaystyle a_{0}={} 14log(2π)ζ(1)2J2J+.\displaystyle\frac{1}{4}\log(2\pi)-\zeta^{\prime}(-1)-2J_{-}-2J_{+}. (12)

Here erfcy=(2/π)yet2𝑑t\operatorname{erfc}y=(2/\sqrt{\pi})\int_{y}^{\infty}e^{-t^{2}}\,\mathrm{d}t, and ζ\zeta denotes the Riemann zeta function. All four integrals converge absolutely after the displayed renormalizations. Numerical quadrature of these convergent integrals gives

a1=2.3014159133,a0=1.0063109967.a_{1}=-2.3014159133\ldots,\qquad a_{0}=1.0063109967\ldots.
Theorem 1.2 (Sharp reduced-Palm hole asymptotics).

As rr\to\infty,

logq(r)=r44r2logr+a2r2+a1r+23logr+a0+O(r1/6).\log q(r)=-\frac{r^{4}}{4}-r^{2}\log r+a_{2}r^{2}+a_{1}r+\frac{2}{3}\log r+a_{0}+O(r^{-1/6}). (13)

Inverting (13) yields an explicit fourth-power centering. For all sufficiently large nn, define

βn=\displaystyle\beta_{n}={} 4logn|B|π4logn|B|πlog(2logn|B|π)+8a2logn|B|π\displaystyle 4\log\frac{n|B|}{\pi}-4\sqrt{\log\frac{n|B|}{\pi}}\,\log\!\left(2\sqrt{\log\frac{n|B|}{\pi}}\right)+8a_{2}\sqrt{\log\frac{n|B|}{\pi}}
+42a1(logn|B|π)1/4+2[log(2logn|B|π)]2\displaystyle+4\sqrt{2}\,a_{1}\left(\log\frac{n|B|}{\pi}\right)^{1/4}+2\left[\log\!\left(2\sqrt{\log\frac{n|B|}{\pi}}\right)\right]^{2}
+(1038a2)log(2logn|B|π)+8a224a2+4a0.\displaystyle+\left(\frac{10}{3}-8a_{2}\right)\log\!\left(2\sqrt{\log\frac{n|B|}{\pi}}\right)+8a_{2}^{2}-4a_{2}+4a_{0}. (14)
Theorem 1.3 (Explicit fourth-power normalization).

Under (4), for every xx\in\mathbb{R},

{n2Mn(B)4βn+4x}eex.\mathbb{P}\{n^{2}M_{n}(B)^{4}\leq\beta_{n}+4x\}\longrightarrow e^{-e^{-x}}. (15)

Equivalently,

βn3/4(nMn(B)βn1/4)Gum.\beta_{n}^{3/4}\bigl(\sqrt{n}\,M_{n}(B)-\beta_{n}^{1/4}\bigr)\ \Longrightarrow\ \operatorname{Gum}. (16)

The square of the microscopic centering radius βn1/4\beta_{n}^{1/4} for nMn(B)\sqrt{n}\,M_{n}(B) in (16) has the simpler large-nn expansion

βn1/2=2logn|B|π12loglogn|B|π+4log(4π)+o(1).\beta_{n}^{1/2}=2\sqrt{\log\frac{n|B|}{\pi}}-\frac{1}{2}\log\log\frac{n|B|}{\pi}+4-\log(4\pi)+o(1).

Consequently the largest gap has the readable location formula

nMn(B)2=2logn|B|π12loglogn|B|π+4log(4π)+o(1).nM_{n}(B)^{2}=2\sqrt{\log\frac{n|B|}{\pi}}-\frac{1}{2}\log\log\frac{n|B|}{\pi}+4-\log(4\pi)+o_{\mathbb{P}}(1). (17)

Formula (14) retains every deterministic correction through order one. In decreasing order, their sizes are

lognloglogn,logn,(logn)1/4,(loglogn)2,loglogn,1.\sqrt{\log n}\log\log n,\quad\sqrt{\log n},\quad(\log n)^{1/4},\quad(\log\log n)^{2},\quad\log\log n,\quad 1.
Corollary 1.4 (Fixed order statistics).

Arrange the values {dn(z):zξnB}\{d_{n}(z):z\in\xi_{n}\cap B\} in decreasing order as Mn,1Mn,2M_{n,1}\geq M_{n,2}\geq\cdots, and put Mn,k=0M_{n,k}=0 when fewer than kk anchors lie in BB. For each fixed k1k\geq 1,

{Ψ(nMn,k)logn|B|πx}eexj=0k1ejxj!.\mathbb{P}\!\left\{\Psi(\sqrt{n}\,M_{n,k})-\log\frac{n|B|}{\pi}\leq x\right\}\longrightarrow e^{-e^{-x}}\sum_{j=0}^{k-1}\frac{e^{-jx}}{j!}.

2 Ginibre kernels, Palm holes, and the Poisson input

2.1 From the eigenvalue density to the projection kernel

We collect the determinantal facts used later and keep track of the normalization. If XnX_{n} has density (n/π)n2enTrXnXn(n/\pi)^{n^{2}}e^{-n\operatorname{Tr}X_{n}X_{n}^{*}} on n×n\mathbb{C}^{n\times n}, the complex Schur decomposition, followed by integration over the strictly upper triangular entries and the unitary factor, gives (1); see [3, Chapter 2]. Since

1i<jn|zizj|2=|det[zij1]i,j=1n|2,\prod_{1\leq i<j\leq n}|z_{i}-z_{j}|^{2}=\left|\det[z_{i}^{j-1}]_{i,j=1}^{n}\right|^{2},

the density is an orthogonal-polynomial ensemble for the planar Gaussian weight. The monomials satisfy

zjz¯ken|z|2d2z=πj!nj+1 1{j=k},\int_{\mathbb{C}}z^{j}\bar{z}^{k}e^{-n|z|^{2}}\,\mathrm{d}^{2}z=\frac{\pi j!}{n^{j+1}}\,\mathbf{1}_{\{j=k\}}, (18)

as follows by passing to polar coordinates. Thus the functions φj,n\varphi_{j,n} below form an orthonormal family in L2(,d2z)L^{2}(\mathbb{C},\,\mathrm{d}^{2}z).

For completeness, recall that the kk-point correlation function ρn(k)\rho_{n}^{(k)} is characterized by

𝔼z1,,zkξnf(z1,,zk)=kf(z1,,zk)ρn(k)(z1,,zk)j=1kd2zj\displaystyle\mathbb{E}\!\sum_{z_{1},\ldots,z_{k}\in\xi_{n}}^{\neq}f(z_{1},\ldots,z_{k})=\int_{\mathbb{C}^{k}}f(z_{1},\ldots,z_{k})\rho_{n}^{(k)}(z_{1},\ldots,z_{k})\prod_{j=1}^{k}\,\mathrm{d}^{2}z_{j} (19)

for every nonnegative measurable ff, where the sum is over ordered tuples of distinct points. Andréief’s identity applied to (1) and (18) yields

ρn(k)(z1,,zk)=det[Kn(zi,zj)]i,j=1k.\rho_{n}^{(k)}(z_{1},\ldots,z_{k})=\det[K_{n}(z_{i},z_{j})]_{i,j=1}^{k}.

With respect to planar Lebesgue measure, ξn\xi_{n} is determinantal with kernel [13, Theorem 4.3.10]

φj,n(z)\displaystyle\varphi_{j,n}(z) =(nj+1πj!)1/2zjen|z|2/2,\displaystyle=\left(\frac{n^{j+1}}{\pi j!}\right)^{1/2}z^{j}e^{-n|z|^{2}/2}, (20)
Kn(z,w)\displaystyle K_{n}(z,w) =j=0n1φj,n(z)φj,n(w)¯=nπen2(|z|2+|w|2)j=0n1(nzw¯)jj!.\displaystyle=\sum_{j=0}^{n-1}\varphi_{j,n}(z)\overline{\varphi_{j,n}(w)}=\frac{n}{\pi}e^{-\frac{n}{2}(|z|^{2}+|w|^{2})}\sum_{j=0}^{n-1}\frac{(nz\bar{w})^{j}}{j!}.

The microscopic infinite Ginibre kernel is the locally trace-class projection

K(z,w)=j=0φj(z)φj(w)¯=1πezw¯|z|2/2|w|2/2.K_{\infty}(z,w)=\sum_{j=0}^{\infty}\varphi_{j}(z)\overline{\varphi_{j}(w)}=\frac{1}{\pi}e^{z\bar{w}-|z|^{2}/2-|w|^{2}/2}. (21)

Here φj(z)=zje|z|2/2/πj!\varphi_{j}(z)=z^{j}e^{-|z|^{2}/2}/\sqrt{\pi j!}, and ξ\xi_{\infty} denotes the determinantal process with kernel KK_{\infty}. Its unit-disk-scale version, of intensity n/πn/\pi, is

K,n(z,w)=nK(nz,nw)=nπenzw¯n|z|2/2n|w|2/2.K_{\infty,n}(z,w)=nK_{\infty}(\sqrt{n}\,z,\sqrt{n}\,w)=\frac{n}{\pi}e^{nz\bar{w}-n|z|^{2}/2-n|w|^{2}/2}. (22)

The diagonal of the finite kernel has the useful Poisson representation

Kn(z,z)=nπen|z|2j=0n1(n|z|2)jj!=nπ{Pois(n|z|2)n1}.K_{n}(z,z)=\frac{n}{\pi}e^{-n|z|^{2}}\sum_{j=0}^{n-1}\frac{(n|z|^{2})^{j}}{j!}=\frac{n}{\pi}\mathbb{P}\{\operatorname{Pois}(n|z|^{2})\leq n-1\}. (23)

In particular, if |z|s|z|\leq s with fixed s<1s<1, a Chernoff bound gives

Kn(z,z)=nπ(1+Os(ecsn)).K_{n}(z,z)=\frac{n}{\pi}\bigl(1+O_{s}(e^{-c_{s}n})\bigr). (24)

This is the quantitative bulk flatness that later makes the deterministic threshold independent of the location of the anchor.

Although the expression (21) is not literally translation invariant, its associated point process is. Indeed, for aa\in\mathbb{C}, the magnetic translation

(Uaf)(z)=eiIm(za¯)f(za)(U_{a}f)(z)=e^{i\operatorname{Im}(z\bar{a})}f(z-a)

is unitary on L2(,d2z)L^{2}(\mathbb{C},\,\mathrm{d}^{2}z). The identity

K(z+a,w+a)=eiIm(za¯)K(z,w)eiIm(wa¯)K_{\infty}(z+a,w+a)=e^{i\operatorname{Im}(z\bar{a})}K_{\infty}(z,w)e^{-i\operatorname{Im}(w\bar{a})}

shows that it conjugates the compression of KK_{\infty} to Dr(0)D_{r}(0) with that to Dr(a)D_{r}(a). Fredholm determinants are invariant under this conjugation. Consequently both ordinary and reduced-Palm disk-hole probabilities depend only on the radius, once the Palm point and disk centre are translated together. The same statement holds for K,nK_{\infty,n}, with magnetic phase einIm(za¯)e^{in\operatorname{Im}(z\bar{a})}. Dilation by n\sqrt{n} identifies its disk of physical radius rr with a disk of microscopic radius nr\sqrt{n}\,r for KK_{\infty}.

2.2 Kostlan’s radial representation

The rotational symmetry of Ginibre gives an additional exact structure that is particularly useful for disk events. The following result is usually referred to as Kostlan’s theorem [15]; see also [3, Section 2.9].

For k1k\geq 1 and x0x\geq 0, write

Q(k,x)=Γ(k,x)Γ(k),Γ(k,x)=xtk1et𝑑t,qqua𝑑γ(k,x)=0xtk1et𝑑t.Q(k,x)=\frac{\Gamma(k,x)}{\Gamma(k)},\qquad\Gamma(k,x)=\int_{x}^{\infty}t^{k-1}e^{-t}\,\mathrm{d}t,qquad\gamma(k,x)=\int_{0}^{x}t^{k-1}e^{-t}\,\mathrm{d}t. (25)
Lemma 2.1 (Kostlan).

Let z1,,znz_{1},\ldots,z_{n} be the eigenvalues of XnX_{n}, with their labels discarded. The unordered multiset

{n|z1|2,,n|zn|2}\{n|z_{1}|^{2},\ldots,n|z_{n}|^{2}\}

has the same law as the unordered multiset {γ1,,γn}\{\gamma_{1},\ldots,\gamma_{n}\}, where the variables are independent and γk\gamma_{k} has gamma density

xk1exΓ(k)𝟏{x>0}dx.\frac{x^{k-1}e^{-x}}{\Gamma(k)}\mathbf{1}_{\{x>0\}}\,\mathrm{d}x.

Consequently,

{ξn(Dr)=0}=k=1nQ(k,nr2).\mathbb{P}\{\xi_{n}(D_{r})=0\}=\prod_{k=1}^{n}Q(k,nr^{2}). (26)
Proof.

Write zj=xj/neiθjz_{j}=\sqrt{x_{j}/n}\,e^{i\theta_{j}}. Expanding the two Vandermonde determinants in (1) gives

|det[zij1]|2=nn(n1)/2σ,τSnsgn(στ)i=1nxi(σ(i)+τ(i)2)/2ei(σ(i)τ(i))θi.|\det[z_{i}^{j-1}]|^{2}=n^{-n(n-1)/2}\sum_{\sigma,\tau\in S_{n}}\operatorname{sgn}(\sigma\tau)\prod_{i=1}^{n}x_{i}^{(\sigma(i)+\tau(i)-2)/2}e^{i(\sigma(i)-\tau(i))\theta_{i}}.

Integration over θ1,,θn\theta_{1},\ldots,\theta_{n} kills every term except σ=τ\sigma=\tau. Since d2zi=(2n)1dxidθi\,\mathrm{d}^{2}z_{i}=(2n)^{-1}\,\mathrm{d}x_{i}\,\mathrm{d}\theta_{i}, the joint density of the labeled squared radii is therefore proportional to

eixiper[xij1]i,j=1ni=1n𝟏{xi>0}dxi,e^{-\sum_{i}x_{i}}\operatorname{per}[x_{i}^{j-1}]_{i,j=1}^{n}\prod_{i=1}^{n}\mathbf{1}_{\{x_{i}>0\}}\,\mathrm{d}x_{i},

where per\operatorname{per} denotes the permanent. After using the normalizing factors Γ(j)\Gamma(j), this is the symmetrization of

j=1nxjj1exjΓ(j)dxj.\prod_{j=1}^{n}\frac{x_{j}^{j-1}e^{-x_{j}}}{\Gamma(j)}\,\mathrm{d}x_{j}.

Discarding labels proves the first assertion. The disk is empty precisely when every rescaled squared radius exceeds nr2nr^{2}. Independence then gives

k=1n{γk>nr2}=k=1nΓ(k,nr2)Γ(k),\prod_{k=1}^{n}\mathbb{P}\{\gamma_{k}>nr^{2}\}=\prod_{k=1}^{n}\frac{\Gamma(k,nr^{2})}{\Gamma(k)},

which is (26). ∎

Kostlan’s representation gives a short alternative route to the ordinary disk product, but not directly to the anchored nearest-neighbour event. The latter is a statement under a reduced Palm measure, and the Palm conditioning changes precisely one radial mode. We therefore return to the operator formulation.

2.3 Reduced Palm processes and anchored holes

For any of the kernels Kn,K,n,KK_{n},K_{\infty,n},K_{\infty}, the reduced-Palm kernel at aa\in\mathbb{C} is [20, Theorem 1.7]

Ka(z,w)=K(z,w)K(z,a)K(a,w)K(a,a).K^{a}(z,w)=K(z,w)-\frac{K(z,a)K(a,w)}{K(a,a)}. (27)

To make this projection statement precise, regard the kernels as operators on L2(,d2z)L^{2}(\mathbb{C},\mathrm{d}^{2}z). The reproducing identity shows that (27) is the orthogonal projection onto the functions in the corresponding weighted Fock range that vanish at aa. In particular,

n=span(φ0,n,,φn1,n),,n=span¯{φj,n:j0},na,na.\mathcal{H}_{n}=\operatorname{span}(\varphi_{0,n},\ldots,\varphi_{n-1,n}),\qquad\mathcal{H}_{\infty,n}=\overline{\operatorname{span}}\{\varphi_{j,n}:j\geq 0\},\qquad\mathcal{H}_{n}^{a}\subset\mathcal{H}_{\infty,n}^{a}.
Lemma 2.2 (The reduced-Palm product).

For the infinite Ginibre process of intensity 1/π1/\pi,

{ξ0,!(Dr)=0}=det(I𝟏DrK0𝟏Dr)=k=2Q(k,r2)=q(r).\mathbb{P}\{\xi_{\infty}^{0,!}(D_{r})=0\}=\det(I-\mathbf{1}_{D_{r}}K_{\infty}^{0}\mathbf{1}_{D_{r}})=\prod_{k=2}^{\infty}Q(k,r^{2})=q(r).

The product converges locally uniformly, and qq is continuous and strictly decreasing from 11 to 00. If H(r)={ξ(Dr)=0}H(r)=\mathbb{P}\{\xi_{\infty}(D_{r})=0\}, then

q(r)=er2H(r).q(r)=e^{r^{2}}H(r). (28)

This identity is also recorded in [3, Remark 3.1(1)].

Proof.

At the origin, K(,0)=φ0/πK_{\infty}(\,\cdot\,,0)=\varphi_{0}/\sqrt{\pi}, and the rank-one subtraction in (27) therefore removes precisely the constant Fock mode:

K0(z,w)=j=1φj(z)φj(w)¯.K_{\infty}^{0}(z,w)=\sum_{j=1}^{\infty}\varphi_{j}(z)\overline{\varphi_{j}(w)}.

Let Tr=𝟏DrK0𝟏DrT_{r}=\mathbf{1}_{D_{r}}K_{\infty}^{0}\mathbf{1}_{D_{r}}, acting on L2(Dr,d2z)L^{2}(D_{r},\,\mathrm{d}^{2}z). The vectors 𝟏Drφj\mathbf{1}_{D_{r}}\varphi_{j}, j1j\geq 1, are mutually orthogonal by angular integration, and the nonzero eigenvalues of TrT_{r} are their squared norms. Passing to polar coordinates and then setting s=ρ2s=\rho^{2} gives

λj(r)\displaystyle\lambda_{j}(r) =𝟏Drφj22=2j!0rρ2j+1eρ2𝑑ρ=1j!0r2sjes𝑑s=γ(j+1,r2)j!.\displaystyle=\|\mathbf{1}_{D_{r}}\varphi_{j}\|_{2}^{2}=\frac{2}{j!}\int_{0}^{r}\rho^{2j+1}e^{-\rho^{2}}\,\mathrm{d}\rho=\frac{1}{j!}\int_{0}^{r^{2}}s^{j}e^{-s}\,\mathrm{d}s=\frac{\gamma(j+1,r^{2})}{j!}.

Moreover,

TrTr=DrK0(z,z)d2z<,\operatorname{Tr}T_{r}=\int_{D_{r}}K_{\infty}^{0}(z,z)\,\mathrm{d}^{2}z<\infty,

so the eigenvalues are summable and the Fredholm determinant is the absolutely convergent product

det(ITr)=j=1(1γ(j+1,r2)j!)=k=2Q(k,r2).\det(I-T_{r})=\prod_{j=1}^{\infty}\left(1-\frac{\gamma(j+1,r^{2})}{j!}\right)=\prod_{k=2}^{\infty}Q(k,r^{2}).

For every R<R<\infty, the gamma–Poisson identity gives

sup0rRk>K(1Q(k,r2))k>K{Pois(R2)k}0.\sup_{0\leq r\leq R}\sum_{k>K}\bigl(1-Q(k,r^{2})\bigr)\leq\sum_{k>K}\mathbb{P}\{\operatorname{Pois}(R^{2})\geq k\}\longrightarrow 0.

Thus the product converges locally uniformly and is positive. Each factor is strictly decreasing for r>0r>0, while q(0)=1q(0)=1 and q(r)Q(2,r2)=er2(1+r2)0q(r)\leq Q(2,r^{2})=e^{-r^{2}}(1+r^{2})\to 0. This proves the stated continuity and monotonicity. For the ordinary process the j=0j=0 mode is also present. Its factor in the determinant is

1γ(1,r2)=Γ(1,r2)=er2.1-\gamma(1,r^{2})=\Gamma(1,r^{2})=e^{-r^{2}}.

Thus H(r)=er2q(r)H(r)=e^{-r^{2}}q(r), which is equivalent to (28). ∎

Under the dilation zz/nz\mapsto z/\sqrt{n}, the intensity-1/π1/\pi process ξ\xi_{\infty} becomes the process with kernel K,nK_{\infty,n}. Hence its reduced-Palm hole probability in a physical disk of radius rr is

det(I𝟏Dr(a)K,na𝟏Dr(a))=q(nr)=k=2Q(k,nr2).\det(I-\mathbf{1}_{D_{r}(a)}K_{\infty,n}^{a}\mathbf{1}_{D_{r}(a)})=q(\sqrt{n}\,r)=\prod_{k=2}^{\infty}Q(k,nr^{2}). (29)

Returning to the microscopic radius RR, the omission of the k=1k=1 factor in qq has a direct probabilistic meaning. Under the ordinary process, the constant Fock mode contributes the eigenvalue 1eR21-e^{-R^{2}} to the disk compression. Conditioning on a point at the centre and then removing that point deletes exactly this mode. Thus the quotient of the two hole probabilities is the reciprocal of Q(1,R2)Q(1,R^{2}), which is eR2e^{R^{2}}. This factor is negligible compared with the leading exponent R4/4R^{4}/4, but it is one of the dominant corrections at the fluctuation precision considered here.

We shall repeatedly use the Fredholm-determinant interpretation in the following elementary form. If KK is a locally trace-class Hermitian contraction defining a determinantal process η\eta, then for every bounded Borel set DD,

{η(D)=0}=det(I𝟏DK𝟏D).\mathbb{P}\{\eta(D)=0\}=\det(I-\mathbf{1}_{D}K\mathbf{1}_{D}). (30)

Indeed, the number of points in DD is distributed as a sum of independent Bernoulli variables with parameters equal to the eigenvalues of the compression. Formula (30) follows by multiplying their zero probabilities. This also shows directly that enlarging DD decreases the void probability.

Lemma 2.3 (Finite Palm-hole monotonicity).

For n2n\geq 2 and aa\in\mathbb{C}, the function

qn(a,r):={ξna,!(Dr(a))=0},r0,q_{n}(a,r):=\mathbb{P}\{\xi_{n}^{a,!}(D_{r}(a))=0\},\qquad r\geq 0,

is continuous and strictly decreasing from 11 to 00. Moreover, (a,r)Kn(a,a)qn(a,r)(a,r)\mapsto K_{n}(a,a)q_{n}(a,r) is continuous.

Proof.

Write Zn,aZ_{n,a} for the normalizing constant of the reduced-Palm density. The correlation-density formula, with one eigenvalue fixed at aa, gives

qn(a,r)=1Zn,a{|zia|r, 1in1}\displaystyle q_{n}(a,r)=\frac{1}{Z_{n,a}}\int_{\{|z_{i}-a|\geq r,\ 1\leq i\leq n-1\}} eni=1n1|zi|2i=1n1|zia|2\displaystyle e^{-n\sum_{i=1}^{n-1}|z_{i}|^{2}}\prod_{i=1}^{n-1}|z_{i}-a|^{2}
×1i<jn1|zizj|2i=1n1d2zi.\displaystyle\times\prod_{1\leq i<j\leq n-1}|z_{i}-z_{j}|^{2}\prod_{i=1}^{n-1}\mathrm{d}^{2}z_{i}. (31)

Thus, up to the positive normalizing constant Zn,aZ_{n,a}, the reduced-Palm law has density

eni=1n1|zi|2i=1n1|zia|21i<jn1|zizj|2i=1n1d2zi.e^{-n\sum_{i=1}^{n-1}|z_{i}|^{2}}\prod_{i=1}^{n-1}|z_{i}-a|^{2}\prod_{1\leq i<j\leq n-1}|z_{i}-z_{j}|^{2}\prod_{i=1}^{n-1}\mathrm{d}^{2}z_{i}. (32)

The integrand is strictly positive away from the algebraic set on which one coordinate equals aa or two coordinates coincide; that exceptional set has Lebesgue measure zero.

Let 0r1<r20\leq r_{1}<r_{2}. Choose a nonempty open ball contained in Dr2(a)Dr1(a)¯D_{r_{2}}(a)\setminus\overline{D_{r_{1}}(a)}, and choose n2n-2 pairwise disjoint open balls outside Dr2(a)¯\overline{D_{r_{2}}(a)}, also disjoint from the first ball. Configurations with one coordinate in the first ball and the remaining coordinates in the other balls have positive reduced-Palm probability. Every such configuration avoids Dr1(a)D_{r_{1}}(a) but not Dr2(a)D_{r_{2}}(a), proving strict decrease.

If rmrr_{m}\to r, the indicators in (2.3) converge pointwise except when one of the coordinates belongs to Dr(a)\partial D_{r}(a). This exceptional set is null, and dominated convergence proves continuity in rr. Clearly qn(a,0)=1q_{n}(a,0)=1. As rr\to\infty, the void events decrease to the event that the reduced-Palm configuration, which has exactly n1n-1 points, is empty; the latter event has probability zero. Hence the range is all of (0,1](0,1], with limit zero at infinity.

For joint continuity, set zi=a+uiz_{i}=a+u_{i} in both the numerator and the normalizing integral. On a compact set of values of aa, the translated integrand is bounded by an integrable function of the form

Cexp(n2i|ui|2)(1+i|ui|)Cn.C\exp\!\left(-\frac{n}{2}\sum_{i}|u_{i}|^{2}\right)\left(1+\sum_{i}|u_{i}|\right)^{C_{n}}.

If (am,rm)(a,r)(a_{m},r_{m})\to(a,r), dominated convergence applies to the numerator; the moving circle boundaries are again null. It also applies to the normalizing denominator. Therefore (a,r)qn(a,r)(a,r)\mapsto q_{n}(a,r) is continuous. Since Kn(a,a)>0K_{n}(a,a)>0 and is continuous, the last assertion follows. ∎

2.4 Rare isolated points and their intensity

For a deterministic radius rr, introduce the exceedance process

n(r)=aξnD1𝟏{(ξn{a})(Dr(a))=0}δa.\mathcal{E}_{n}(r)=\sum_{a\in\xi_{n}\cap D_{1}}\mathbf{1}_{\{(\xi_{n}\setminus\{a\})(D_{r}(a))=0\}}\,\delta_{a}. (33)
Lemma 2.4 (Campbell–Palm intensity identity).

For every Borel set AD1A\subset D_{1},

𝔼n(r)(A)=AKn(a,a)qn(a,r)d2a.\mathbb{E}\mathcal{E}_{n}(r)(A)=\int_{A}K_{n}(a,a)q_{n}(a,r)\,\mathrm{d}^{2}a. (34)

More generally, the same formula holds with rr replaced by a measurable location-dependent radius r(a)r(a). In particular, the adaptive process in Proposition 2.5 has intensity measure exactly κd2z\kappa\,\mathrm{d}^{2}z in unit-disk coordinates.

Proof.

Apply the reduced Campbell–Mecke formula to

f(a,ω)=𝟏{aA}𝟏{ω(Dr(a)(a))=0}.f(a,\omega)=\mathbf{1}_{\{a\in A\}}\mathbf{1}_{\{\omega(D_{r(a)}(a))=0\}}.

The left-hand side is the expected number of retained anchors in AA, and the reduced-Palm expectation on the right-hand side is qn(a,r(a))q_{n}(a,r(a)). This gives the first integral in (34). If r(a)=Rn,κ(a)r(a)=R_{n,\kappa}(a), equation (35) makes the integrand equal to κ\kappa, proving the final assertion. ∎

Thus Kn(a,a)qn(a,r)K_{n}(a,a)q_{n}(a,r) is the intensity density of anchors whose nearest-neighbour distance exceeds rr. In the bulk, (24) and the finite/infinite comparison proved in Section 4 reduce it to (n/π)q(nr)(n/\pi)q(\sqrt{n}\,r). This calculation explains both the factor n|B|/πn|B|/\pi in Theorem 1.1 and why the reduced-Palm, rather than ordinary, hole probability is the relevant tail.

For a chosen target intensity κ>0\kappa>0, Lopatto and Otto select the radius separately at each anchor so that the integrand in (34) is exactly κ\kappa. The preceding monotonicity lemma guarantees that this adaptive radius is unambiguously defined. Indeed, uniformly for |a|<1|a|<1,

Kn(a,a)nπ{Pois(n)n1}=n2π(1+o(1)),K_{n}(a,a)\geq\frac{n}{\pi}\mathbb{P}\{\operatorname{Pois}(n)\leq n-1\}=\frac{n}{2\pi}(1+o(1)),

where the inequality follows from (23) and monotonicity of the Poisson distribution function. Thus Kn(a,a)>κK_{n}(a,a)>\kappa for all large nn; since qn(a,)q_{n}(a,\,\cdot\,) decreases continuously from 11 to 00, the defining equation below has a unique solution.

We use the following theorem of Lopatto–Otto [17, Theorem 1].

Proposition 2.5 (Lopatto–Otto Poisson approximation).

Fix κ>0\kappa>0, ε(0,1/16)\varepsilon\in(0,1/16), and a Borel set A{z:|z|<1}A\subset\{z:|z|<1\} with supzA|z|<1\sup_{z\in A}|z|<1. For all large nn, let Rn,κ(a)R_{n,\kappa}(a) be the unique radius satisfying

Kn(a,a){ξna,!(DRn,κ(a)(a))=0}=κ.K_{n}(a,a)\,\mathbb{P}\{\xi_{n}^{a,!}(D_{R_{n,\kappa}(a)}(a))=0\}=\kappa. (35)

Let Ξn,κ\Xi_{n,\kappa} be the point process of the retained unit-disk anchors aa, where aξnD1a\in\xi_{n}\cap D_{1} is retained when dn(a)>Rn,κ(a)d_{n}(a)>R_{n,\kappa}(a). If ζκ\zeta_{\kappa} is a Poisson process of intensity κd2z\kappa\,\mathrm{d}^{2}z, then, for a constant depending on A,κ,εA,\kappa,\varepsilon,

dKR(Ξn,κA,ζκA)Cn1/16+ε.d_{\mathrm{KR}}(\Xi_{n,\kappa}\cap A,\zeta_{\kappa}\cap A)\leq Cn^{-1/16+\varepsilon}. (36)

Consequently, if Nn,κ(A)=Ξn,κ(A)N_{n,\kappa}(A)=\Xi_{n,\kappa}(A), then

Nn,κ(A)Pois(κ|A|).N_{n,\kappa}(A)\ \Longrightarrow\ \operatorname{Pois}(\kappa|A|).

To verify the normalization, let K~n,q~n\widetilde{K}_{n},\widetilde{q}_{n}, and R~n,κ\widetilde{R}_{n,\kappa} denote the quantities in [17, Theorem 1], which are written in variance-one coordinates. Under z=naz=\sqrt{n}\,a,

Kn(a,a)=nK~n(na,na),qn(a,r)=q~n(na,nr),K_{n}(a,a)=n\widetilde{K}_{n}(\sqrt{n}\,a,\sqrt{n}\,a),\qquad q_{n}(a,r)=\widetilde{q}_{n}(\sqrt{n}\,a,\sqrt{n}\,r),

and hence

Rn,κ(a)=n1/2R~n,κ(na).R_{n,\kappa}(a)=n^{-1/2}\widetilde{R}_{n,\kappa}(\sqrt{n}\,a).

Thus Ξn,κ\Xi_{n,\kappa} is exactly the push-forward of the process in [17, Theorem 1] under zz/nz\mapsto z/\sqrt{n}, and its intensity equation is Kn(a,a)qn(a,Rn,κ(a))=κK_{n}(a,a)q_{n}(a,R_{n,\kappa}(a))=\kappa. The cited theorem uses closed rather than open disks. This does not change the process: by Campbell–Palm, the expected number of relevant pairs lying on DRn,κ(a)(a)\partial D_{R_{n,\kappa}(a)}(a) is zero, since every reduced-Palm one-point intensity is absolutely continuous and every circle has zero planar area.

Here dKRd_{\mathrm{KR}} is the Kantorovich–Rubinstein distance on finite point measures, with the total-variation metric used in [17]. The stated convergence of the counts follows directly from the metric, not only from a separate tightness argument. For every integer m0m\geq 0, the map

hA,m(μ)=𝟏{μ(A)m}h_{A,m}(\mu)=\mathbf{1}_{\{\mu(A)\leq m\}}

is bounded and 11-Lipschitz for the total-variation metric: if its values differ, then the two integer-valued masses of AA differ by at least one. Thus (36) controls the difference between the corresponding count distribution functions.

Here and below the versioned citation is deliberately to the archived first version, arXiv:2501.04611v1. Theorem 1 of that version states the result for every fixed κ>0\kappa>0, which is the form used here. The theorem statement in the later revision is restricted to κ>1\kappa>1; we do not invoke that revised formulation. This distinction matters because κ=ex/|B|\kappa=e^{-x}/|B| ranges over all of (0,)(0,\infty) as the Gumbel level xx varies. In the first-version proof, κ\kappa is fixed before the estimates are made, and the constants are permitted to depend on it. Thus the cited input is pointwise in κ\kappa, exactly as required by the fixed-xx statements below; no uniformity as κ0\kappa\downarrow 0 is used. By Lemma 2.3, the threshold in (35) is unique; its dependence on aa is continuous by monotone inversion, so the retained process is measurable.

3 The sharp infinite reduced-Palm hole

3.1 Why a full hole expansion is needed

The radius in this section is microscopic: a unit-disk radius ss is represented here by r=nsr=\sqrt{n}\,s. Write x=r2x=r^{2}. The exact ordinary hole probability is

H(r)=k=1Q(k,x),Q(k,x)={Pois(x)k1}.H(r)=\prod_{k=1}^{\infty}Q(k,x),\qquad Q(k,x)=\mathbb{P}\{\operatorname{Pois}(x)\leq k-1\}.

The leading term logH(r)r4/4\log H(r)\sim-r^{4}/4 is the electrostatic cost of creating a disk of radius rr in a plasma of intensity 1/π1/\pi. At the largest-gap scale, r4lognr^{4}\asymp\log n, so this term determines the power (logn)1/4(\log n)^{1/4}. It does not, however, determine a nondegenerate limiting law. Changing the limiting Gumbel coordinate by a bounded amount changes the radius by order r3r^{-3}, while the successive deterministic terms in logH(r)\log H(r) shift that radius by much larger amounts. The expansion must therefore be known through an additive o(1)o(1) in the logarithm.

The product also makes visible the source of the different terms. When kk lies well below xx, Q(k,x)Q(k,x) is an exponentially small lower tail of a Poisson variable; summing its large-deviation expansion produces the terms of orders x2x^{2}, xlogxx\log x, and xx. The transition window kx=O(x)k-x=O(\sqrt{x}) is described by the complementary error function and produces the x\sqrt{x} term. Euler–Maclaurin endpoint corrections and the matching of the large-deviation and transition regimes produce logx\log x and the constant. Terms with kk well above xx are exponentially small. The purpose of the next lemma and Appendix A is to implement this decomposition with an error uniform in the auxiliary disk parameter.

3.2 A compact-uniform finite product

The needed asymptotic does not follow merely by substituting a shrinking radius into a theorem stated for a fixed disk. We first record the precise compact-uniform statement and prove its uniformity in Appendix A.

Lemma 3.1 (Compact-uniform one-disk asymptotics).

For every compact interval I(0,1)I\Subset(0,1), uniformly for tIt\in I,

k=1NlogQ(k,Nt2)=\displaystyle\sum_{k=1}^{N}\log Q(k,Nt^{2})={} t44N2t22NlogN+t2(1log(t2π))N\displaystyle-\frac{t^{4}}{4}N^{2}-\frac{t^{2}}{2}N\log N+t^{2}\bigl(1-\log(t\sqrt{2\pi})\bigr)N
+a1tN+13logN+23logt+a0+OI(N1/12).\displaystyle+a_{1}t\sqrt{N}+\frac{1}{3}\log N+\frac{2}{3}\log t+a_{0}+O_{I}(N^{-1/12}). (37)
Proof of Theorem 1.2.

First consider the ordinary hole product H(r)=k1Q(k,r2)H(r)=\prod_{k\geq 1}Q(k,r^{2}), and put x=r2x=r^{2}. Choose N=4xN=\lceil 4x\rceil and t=(x/N)1/2t=(x/N)^{1/2}. Then Nt2=xNt^{2}=x and tt lies in a fixed compact subinterval of (0,1)(0,1). For k>N4xk>N\geq 4x, the integer gamma–Poisson identity and Chernoff’s bound give

1Q(k,x)={Pois(x)k}ex(exk)k.1-Q(k,x)=\mathbb{P}\{\operatorname{Pois}(x)\geq k\}\leq e^{-x}\left(\frac{ex}{k}\right)^{k}.

Consequently

k>N|logQ(k,x)|=O(ecx)\sum_{k>N}|\log Q(k,x)|=O(e^{-cx}) (38)

for an absolute c>0c>0. Apply Lemma 3.1 and substitute x=Nt2x=Nt^{2}. The cancellation uses

tN=x,x2logNxlogt=x2logx,13logN+23logt=13logx.t\sqrt{N}=\sqrt{x},\qquad-\frac{x}{2}\log N-x\log t=-\frac{x}{2}\log x,\qquad\frac{1}{3}\log N+\frac{2}{3}\log t=\frac{1}{3}\log x.

Thus

logH(r)=\displaystyle\log H(r)={} x24x2logx+(112log(2π))x+a1x+13logx+a0+O(x1/12)\displaystyle-\frac{x^{2}}{4}-\frac{x}{2}\log x+\left(1-\frac{1}{2}\log(2\pi)\right)x+a_{1}\sqrt{x}+\frac{1}{3}\log x+a_{0}+O(x^{-1/12})
=\displaystyle={} r44r2logr+(112log(2π))r2+a1r+23logr+a0+O(r1/6).\displaystyle-\frac{r^{4}}{4}-r^{2}\log r+\left(1-\frac{1}{2}\log(2\pi)\right)r^{2}+a_{1}r+\frac{2}{3}\log r+a_{0}+O(r^{-1/6}). (39)

Finally, (28) adds r2r^{2} to (39), which is precisely (13). ∎

Remark 3.2 (Ordinary versus anchored holes).

The ordinary and reduced-Palm expansions differ by exactly r2r^{2}. In particular,

logH(r)=r44r2logr+(112log(2π))r2+a1r+23logr+a0+O(r1/6),\log H(r)=-\frac{r^{4}}{4}-r^{2}\log r+\left(1-\frac{1}{2}\log(2\pi)\right)r^{2}+a_{1}r+\frac{2}{3}\log r+a_{0}+O(r^{-1/6}),

whereas logq(r)=logH(r)+r2\log q(r)=\log H(r)+r^{2}. Both have the same electrostatic leading cost and hence the same fourth-root scale, but they yield different logn\sqrt{\log n}-order contributions to the fourth-power centering. This is why an ordinary-hole computation cannot be substituted into the nearest-neighbour problem.

For use in the local analysis and the deterministic inversion, define

Φ(r)=r44+r2logra2r2a1r23logra0.\Phi(r)=\frac{r^{4}}{4}+r^{2}\log r-a_{2}r^{2}-a_{1}r-\frac{2}{3}\log r-a_{0}. (40)
Lemma 3.3 (Local variation of the transformed tail).

Let rr\to\infty and let h=h(r)h=h(r) satisfy h=O(r3)h=O(r^{-3}). Then

Ψ(r+h)Ψ(r)=r3h+o(1).\Psi(r+h)-\Psi(r)=r^{3}h+o(1). (41)

More generally, if rn,snr_{n},s_{n}\to\infty, both are of the same order, and Φ(sn)Φ(rn)y\Phi(s_{n})-\Phi(r_{n})\to y, then Ψ(sn)Ψ(rn)y\Psi(s_{n})-\Psi(r_{n})\to y.

Proof.

By Theorem 1.2 and the definition (40),

Ψ(s)Ψ(r)=Φ(s)Φ(r)+O(r1/6+s1/6)\Psi(s)-\Psi(r)=\Phi(s)-\Phi(r)+O(r^{-1/6}+s^{-1/6})

whenever r,sr,s\to\infty. This proves the second assertion. For the first, Taylor’s theorem and

Φ(r)=r3+2rlogr+(12a2)ra123r,Φ′′(r)=3r2+O(logr),\Phi^{\prime}(r)=r^{3}+2r\log r+(1-2a_{2})r-a_{1}-\frac{2}{3r},\qquad\Phi^{\prime\prime}(r)=3r^{2}+O(\log r),

give

Φ(r+h)Φ(r)=Φ(r)h+O(r2h2)=r3h+o(1).\Phi(r+h)-\Phi(r)=\Phi^{\prime}(r)h+O(r^{2}h^{2})=r^{3}h+o(1).

Combining the two displays proves (41). ∎

The convergence of the integrals in (9)–(11) follows from erfc(y)=2erfc(y)\operatorname{erfc}(-y)=2-\operatorname{erfc}(y) and

erfc(y)=ey2πy(112y2+34y4+O(y6)),y+.\operatorname{erfc}(y)=\frac{e^{-y^{2}}}{\sqrt{\pi}\,y}\left(1-\frac{1}{2y^{2}}+\frac{3}{4y^{4}}+O(y^{-6})\right),\qquad y\to+\infty. (42)

At -\infty the integrands are exponentially small; at ++\infty, the two renormalized integrands in (9) and (11) are respectively O(y2)O(y^{-2}) and O(y3)O(y^{-3}).

4 Uniform comparison of finite and infinite Palm holes

In this section rr again denotes a physical radius in the unit-disk coordinates; its microscopic counterpart is nr\sqrt{n}\,r. The Poisson theorem of Lopatto–Otto uses the finite-nn reduced-Palm hole at a location-dependent radius. Our tail transform is instead defined by the stationary infinite process. We now show that these two holes agree to relative exponential accuracy throughout the bulk and throughout the entire range of radii relevant to the maximum. Relative accuracy is essential: both determinants themselves are of order n1n^{-1}, so an absolute o(1)o(1) estimate would contain no useful information.

4.1 Two operator estimates

Lemma 4.1 (A relative determinant inequality).

Let A,CA,C be positive trace-class contractions on a Hilbert space, assume 0AC0\leq A\leq C and C<1\|C\|<1, and put D=CAD=C-A. Then

0logdet(IA)det(IC)(IC)1TrD.0\leq\log\frac{\det(I-A)}{\det(I-C)}\leq\|(I-C)^{-1}\|\,\operatorname{Tr}D. (43)
Proof.

For 0t10\leq t\leq 1, set Ct=CtDC_{t}=C-tD. Then 0CtC0\leq C_{t}\leq C, so ICtI-C_{t} is invertible and (ICt)1(IC)1(I-C_{t})^{-1}\leq(I-C)^{-1} in the operator order. In finite dimension, Jacobi’s formula gives

ddtlogdet(ICt)=Tr[(ICt)1D].\frac{\,\mathrm{d}}{\,\mathrm{d}t}\log\det(I-C_{t})=\operatorname{Tr}[(I-C_{t})^{-1}D].

The trace is nonnegative, and

Tr[(ICt)1D](IC)1TrD.\operatorname{Tr}[(I-C_{t})^{-1}D]\leq\|(I-C)^{-1}\|\operatorname{Tr}D.

Integration from zero to one proves (43) in finite dimension. For trace-class operators, apply the finite-dimensional argument to spectral projections increasing strongly to the identity. Trace-norm convergence of the compressions, continuity of the Fredholm determinant, and monotone convergence of the traces pass both inequalities to the limit. ∎

Lemma 4.2 (Bulk truncation of the Palm projection).

Fix s<1s<1 and C0<C_{0}<\infty. There exist c,C>0c,C>0 such that, uniformly for |a|s|a|\leq s, 0rC0n1/2(logn)1/40\leq r\leq C_{0}n^{-1/2}(\log n)^{1/4}, and wDr(a)w\in D_{r}(a),

0\displaystyle 0 K,na(w,w)Kna(w,w)Cnecn,\displaystyle\leq K_{\infty,n}^{a}(w,w)-K_{n}^{a}(w,w)\leq Cne^{-cn}, (44)
0\displaystyle 0 K,n(a,a)Kn(a,a)Cnecn.\displaystyle\leq K_{\infty,n}(a,a)-K_{n}(a,a)\leq Cne^{-cn}. (45)

Consequently, for D=Dr(a)D=D_{r}(a),

Tr[𝟏D(K,naKna)𝟏D]Cnr2ecn.\operatorname{Tr}\!\left[\mathbf{1}_{D}(K_{\infty,n}^{a}-K_{n}^{a})\mathbf{1}_{D}\right]\leq Cnr^{2}e^{-cn}. (46)
Proof.

Choose s<s<1s<s^{\prime}<1. Since r=o(1)r=o(1), the disk Dr(a)D_{r}(a) is contained in DsD_{s^{\prime}} for all large nn, uniformly over the stated range. The projection remainder

En=K,nKn=j=nφj,nφj,nE_{n}=K_{\infty,n}-K_{n}=\sum_{j=n}^{\infty}\varphi_{j,n}\otimes\varphi_{j,n}

is positive. Its diagonal is

En(w,w)=nπen|w|2j=n(n|w|2)jj!=nπ{Pois(n|w|2)n}.E_{n}(w,w)=\frac{n}{\pi}e^{-n|w|^{2}}\sum_{j=n}^{\infty}\frac{(n|w|^{2})^{j}}{j!}=\frac{n}{\pi}\mathbb{P}\{\operatorname{Pois}(n|w|^{2})\geq n\}.

For |w|s|w|\leq s^{\prime}, the exponential Markov inequality, optimized at θ=log(1/|w|2)\theta=\log(1/|w|^{2}), yields

{Pois(n|w|2)n}exp{n[log(s2)1+s2]}.\mathbb{P}\{\operatorname{Pois}(n|w|^{2})\geq n\}\leq\exp\{-n[\log(s^{\prime-2})-1+s^{\prime 2}]\}.

The bracket is strictly positive. Positivity of EnE_{n} and the two-by-two principal minor inequality give

|En(z,w)|2En(z,z)En(w,w),|E_{n}(z,w)|^{2}\leq E_{n}(z,z)E_{n}(w,w), (47)

hence the same exponential estimate holds off the diagonal in the bulk.

It remains to compare the rank-one terms in the Palm formula. Set

α=K,n(a,a),β=Kn(a,a),u=K,n(w,a),v=Kn(w,a).\alpha=K_{\infty,n}(a,a),\quad\beta=K_{n}(a,a),\quad u=K_{\infty,n}(w,a),\quad v=K_{n}(w,a).

Here α=n/π\alpha=n/\pi, βn/(2π)\beta\geq n/(2\pi) for large nn, |u|,|v|n/π|u|,|v|\leq n/\pi, and (47) gives |uv|+|αβ|Cnecn|u-v|+|\alpha-\beta|\leq Cne^{-cn}, after changing cc. Therefore

||u|2α|v|2β|\displaystyle\left|\frac{|u|^{2}}{\alpha}-\frac{|v|^{2}}{\beta}\right| (|u|+|v|)|uv|α+|v|2|αβ|αβCnecn.\displaystyle\leq\frac{(|u|+|v|)|u-v|}{\alpha}+\frac{|v|^{2}|\alpha-\beta|}{\alpha\beta}\leq Cne^{-cn}.

Subtracting the two Palm kernels proves the upper bound in (44); the lower bound follows from the projection inclusion na,na\mathcal{H}_{n}^{a}\subset\mathcal{H}_{\infty,n}^{a}. Equation (45) is the unconditioned diagonal estimate at aa. Finally, a positive continuous-kernel operator has trace equal to the integral of its diagonal. Integration over Dr(a)D_{r}(a) proves (46). ∎

4.2 Relative comparison of the hole probabilities

Lemma 4.3 (Relative Palm determinant comparison).

Fix s<1s<1 and C0<C_{0}<\infty. There are c,C>0c,C>0 such that, uniformly for |a|s|a|\leq s and 0rC0n1/2(logn)1/40\leq r\leq C_{0}n^{-1/2}(\log n)^{1/4},

0logqn(a,r)q(nr)Cecn+nr2.0\leq\log\frac{q_{n}(a,r)}{q(\sqrt{n}\,r)}\leq Ce^{-cn+nr^{2}}. (48)

In particular, qn(a,r)/q(nr)=1+O(ecn)q_{n}(a,r)/q(\sqrt{n}\,r)=1+O(e^{-c^{\prime}n}) uniformly in this range. Also

Kn(a,a)=nπ(1+O(ecn)).K_{n}(a,a)=\frac{n}{\pi}\bigl(1+O(e^{-c^{\prime}n})\bigr). (49)
Proof.

All operators in this proof are in the unit-disk, variance-1/n1/n coordinates of (20). Since na,na\mathcal{H}_{n}^{a}\subset\mathcal{H}_{\infty,n}^{a}, their orthogonal projections satisfy KnaK,naK_{n}^{a}\leq K_{\infty,n}^{a}. For D=Dr(a)D=D_{r}(a), set

A=𝟏DKna𝟏D,C=𝟏DK,na𝟏D,𝒟=CA.A=\mathbf{1}_{D}K_{n}^{a}\mathbf{1}_{D},\qquad C=\mathbf{1}_{D}K_{\infty,n}^{a}\mathbf{1}_{D},\qquad\mathcal{D}=C-A.

Then 0AC0\leq A\leq C, 𝒟0\mathcal{D}\geq 0. The strict contraction property C<1\|C\|<1 follows from the explicit spectrum computed below. Consequently,

qn(a,r)=det(IA)det(IC)=q(nr).q_{n}(a,r)=\det(I-A)\geq\det(I-C)=q(\sqrt{n}\,r). (50)

By Lemma 4.2,

𝒟1=Tr𝒟Cnr2ecn.\|\mathcal{D}\|_{1}=\operatorname{Tr}\mathcal{D}\leq Cnr^{2}e^{-cn}. (51)

Magnetic translation is a unitary equivalence between CC and the restriction of the microscopic reduced-Palm kernel at 00 to Dnr(0)D_{\sqrt{n}r}(0). By the proof of Lemma 2.2, its eigenvalues are λj=γ(j+1,nr2)/j!\lambda_{j}=\gamma(j+1,nr^{2})/j!, j1j\geq 1. The gamma–Poisson identity gives

λj={Pois(nr2)j+1},\lambda_{j}=\mathbb{P}\{\operatorname{Pois}(nr^{2})\geq j+1\},

so they decrease with jj, and all are strictly below one. Hence

(IC)1=11λ1=enr21+nr2.\|(I-C)^{-1}\|=\frac{1}{1-\lambda_{1}}=\frac{e^{nr^{2}}}{1+nr^{2}}. (52)

Apply Lemma 4.1, (51), and (52) to obtain

0logqn(a,r)q(nr)enr21+nr2Cnr2ecnCecn+nr2.0\leq\log\frac{q_{n}(a,r)}{q(\sqrt{n}\,r)}\leq\frac{e^{nr^{2}}}{1+nr^{2}}\,Cnr^{2}e^{-cn}\leq Ce^{-cn+nr^{2}}.

This proves (48). Equation (49) is (45). ∎

5 Proofs of the extreme-value theorems

To shorten the proofs only, set

Ln:=logn|B|π.L_{n}:=\log\frac{n|B|}{\pi}.

5.1 From adaptive radii to a common threshold

The main probabilistic input concerns the spatially varying radius Rn,κ(a)R_{n,\kappa}(a), whereas the maximum in (5) is evaluated at a common radius. The following deterministic observation isolates the sandwich argument used to pass between the two.

For t0t\geq 0, write

Nn(t,B)=#{aξnB:dn(a)>t}.N_{n}(t;B)=\#\{a\in\xi_{n}\cap B:d_{n}(a)>t\}. (53)
Lemma 5.1 (Uniform threshold transfer).

Let tn0t_{n}\geq 0, κ>0\kappa>0, and suppose that

supaB|Kn(a,a)qn(a,tn)κ|0.\sup_{a\in B}\left|K_{n}(a,a)q_{n}(a,t_{n})-\kappa\right|\longrightarrow 0. (54)

Then

{Nn(tn;B)=0}eκ|B|,\mathbb{P}\{N_{n}(t_{n};B)=0\}\longrightarrow e^{-\kappa|B|}, (55)

and, for every fixed k1k\geq 1,

{Nn(tn;B)k1}eκ|B|j=0k1(κ|B|)jj!.\mathbb{P}\{N_{n}(t_{n};B)\leq k-1\}\longrightarrow e^{-\kappa|B|}\sum_{j=0}^{k-1}\frac{(\kappa|B|)^{j}}{j!}. (56)
Proof.

Fix ε(0,1)\varepsilon\in(0,1). By (54), for all sufficiently large nn, uniformly in aBa\in B,

κ(1ε)<Kn(a,a)qn(a,tn)<κ(1+ε).\kappa(1-\varepsilon)<K_{n}(a,a)q_{n}(a,t_{n})<\kappa(1+\varepsilon).

Because rqn(a,r)r\mapsto q_{n}(a,r) is strictly decreasing,

Rn,κ(1+ε)(a)tnRn,κ(1ε)(a).R_{n,\kappa(1+\varepsilon)}(a)\leq t_{n}\leq R_{n,\kappa(1-\varepsilon)}(a).

An anchor retained at the larger radius is also retained at the smaller radius. Hence, with the notation of Proposition 2.5,

Nn,κ(1+ε)(B)Nn(tn,B)Nn,κ(1ε)(B).N_{n,\kappa(1+\varepsilon)}(B)\geq N_{n}(t_{n};B)\geq N_{n,\kappa(1-\varepsilon)}(B).

Apply Proposition 2.5 to the outside counts. Their limiting means are κ(1+ε)|B|\kappa(1+\varepsilon)|B| and κ(1ε)|B|\kappa(1-\varepsilon)|B|. The Poisson probabilities of the events {0}\{0\} and {0,,k1}\{0,\ldots,k-1\} are continuous functions of the mean. Letting ε0\varepsilon\downarrow 0 gives (55) and (56). ∎

We shall also use the elementary moving-argument consequence of convergence of distribution functions. If Fn(y)F(y)F_{n}(y)\to F(y) for every yy, and FF is continuous, then for every deterministic ynyy_{n}\to y,

Fn(yn)F(y).F_{n}(y_{n})\longrightarrow F(y). (57)

Indeed, for each δ>0\delta>0, monotonicity gives Fn(yδ)Fn(yn)Fn(y+δ)F_{n}(y-\delta)\leq F_{n}(y_{n})\leq F_{n}(y+\delta) for all large nn; first let nn\to\infty, then δ0\delta\downarrow 0. This small point is needed below when the deterministic inversion produces x+o(1)x+o(1) rather than exactly xx.

Proof of Theorem 1.1.

Fix xx\in\mathbb{R}, and choose s<1s<1 with B¯Ds\overline{B}\subset D_{s}. For all sufficiently large nn, let

tn(x)=1nΨ1(Ln+x),κx=ex|B|.t_{n}(x)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{n}}\Psi^{-1}(L_{n}+x),\qquad\kappa_{x}=\frac{e^{-x}}{|B|}. (58)

By definition,

q(ntn(x))=πexn|B|.q(\sqrt{n}\,t_{n}(x))=\frac{\pi e^{-x}}{n|B|}. (59)

The leading term in (13) gives n2tn(x)4=4Ln(1+o(1))n^{2}t_{n}(x)^{4}=4L_{n}(1+o(1)), and in particular tn(x)=O(n1/2(logn)1/4)t_{n}(x)=O(n^{-1/2}(\log n)^{1/4}). Therefore Lemma 4.3, (49), and (59) imply

supaB|Kn(a,a)qn(a,tn(x))κx|=o(1).\sup_{a\in B}\left|K_{n}(a,a)q_{n}(a,t_{n}(x))-\kappa_{x}\right|=o(1). (60)

Apply Lemma 5.1 with tn=tn(x)t_{n}=t_{n}(x) and κ=κx\kappa=\kappa_{x}. Since κx|B|=ex\kappa_{x}|B|=e^{-x} and {Mn(B)tn(x)}={Nn(tn(x);B)=0}\{M_{n}(B)\leq t_{n}(x)\}=\{N_{n}(t_{n}(x);B)=0\}, this proves (7). Open versus closed balls and strict versus weak inequalities do not affect the result because the joint eigenvalue law has a density. ∎

5.2 Deterministic inversion of the hole exponent

Lemma 5.2 (Deterministic inversion through order one).

Let LL\to\infty, put u=2Lu=2\sqrt{L}, =logu\ell=\log u, and define

β=β(L):=u22u+4a2u+4a1u1/2+22+(1038a2)+8a224a2+4a0.\beta=\beta(L):=u^{2}-2u\ell+4a_{2}u+4a_{1}u^{1/2}+2\ell^{2}+\left(\frac{10}{3}-8a_{2}\right)\ell+8a_{2}^{2}-4a_{2}+4a_{0}. (61)

Uniformly for xx in a fixed compact subset of \mathbb{R},

Φ((β+4x)1/4)=L+x+O(3u).\Phi\bigl((\beta+4x)^{1/4}\bigr)=L+x+O\!\left(\frac{\ell^{3}}{\sqrt{u}}\right). (62)
Proof.

Set sx=β+4xs_{x}=\beta+4x, yx=sxy_{x}=\sqrt{s_{x}}, and abbreviate c=a2c=a_{2}, a=a1a=a_{1}, d=a0d=a_{0}. Expanding yx=u1+(sxu2)/u2y_{x}=u\sqrt{1+(s_{x}-u^{2})/u^{2}} through the terms that can contribute at order one gives

yx=\displaystyle y_{x}={} u+2c+2au1/2\displaystyle u-\ell+2c+2au^{-1/2}
+1u{122+(532c)+2c22c+2d+2x}+O(u3/2+3u2).\displaystyle+\frac{1}{u}\left\{\frac{1}{2}\ell^{2}+\left(\frac{5}{3}-2c\right)\ell+2c^{2}-2c+2d+2x\right\}+O\!\left(\ell u^{-3/2}+\ell^{3}u^{-2}\right). (63)

We give the coefficient bookkeeping in detail. Write

sx=u2+vx,s_{x}=u^{2}+v_{x},

where, directly from (61),

vx=\displaystyle v_{x}={} 2u+4cu+4au1/2+22+(1038c)\displaystyle-2u\ell+4cu+4au^{1/2}+2\ell^{2}+\left(\frac{10}{3}-8c\right)\ell
+8c24c+4d+4x.\displaystyle+8c^{2}-4c+4d+4x.

Then vx=O(u)v_{x}=O(u\ell), uniformly for bounded xx. The Taylor formula

u2+v=u+v2uv28u3+O(|v|3u5),|v|12u2,\sqrt{u^{2}+v}=u+\frac{v}{2u}-\frac{v^{2}}{8u^{3}}+O\!\left(\frac{|v|^{3}}{u^{5}}\right),\qquad|v|\leq\frac{1}{2}u^{2},

shows first that

vx2u=+2c+2au1/2+1u{2+(534c)+4c22c+2d+2x}.\frac{v_{x}}{2u}=-\ell+2c+2au^{-1/2}+\frac{1}{u}\left\{\ell^{2}+\left(\frac{5}{3}-4c\right)\ell+4c^{2}-2c+2d+2x\right\}.

Only the leading part 2u+4cu-2u\ell+4cu of vxv_{x} contributes to vx2/(8u3)v_{x}^{2}/(8u^{3}) at order u1u^{-1}. The square term therefore contributes 12(2c)2/u-\tfrac{1}{2}(\ell-2c)^{2}/u; combining it with the constant line of (61) yields the braces in (63).

Write h=yxuh=y_{x}-u and denote the expression in braces by exe_{x}. Since L=u2/4L=u^{2}/4, formula (40) becomes

Φ(yx)L=\displaystyle\Phi(\sqrt{y_{x}})-L={} uh2+h24+u+h2log(u+h)c(u+h)\displaystyle\frac{uh}{2}+\frac{h^{2}}{4}+\frac{u+h}{2}\log(u+h)-c(u+h)
au+h13log(u+h)d.\displaystyle-a\sqrt{u+h}-\frac{1}{3}\log(u+h)-d. (64)

Here h=O()h=O(\ell), so, uniformly for bounded xx,

log(u+h)=+hu+O(2u2),u+h=u+h2u+O(2u3/2).\log(u+h)=\ell+\frac{h}{u}+O\!\left(\frac{\ell^{2}}{u^{2}}\right),\qquad\sqrt{u+h}=\sqrt{u}+\frac{h}{2\sqrt{u}}+O\!\left(\frac{\ell^{2}}{u^{3/2}}\right).

In (64), the terms of order uu\ell and uu cancel because the first correction in hh is +2c-\ell+2c; the terms of order u\sqrt{u} cancel because the next correction is 2au1/22au^{-1/2}. The remaining order-one expression is

ex224+(c56)c2+cd=x.\frac{e_{x}}{2}-\frac{\ell^{2}}{4}+(c-\tfrac{5}{6})\ell-c^{2}+c-d=x.

For reference, the cancellation occurs successively at the following orders. The correction -\ell removes the uu\ell contribution, 2c2c removes the remaining order uu term, and 2au1/22au^{-1/2} removes the order u\sqrt{u} term. The five terms in exe_{x} then cancel, respectively, the coefficients of 2\ell^{2}, \ell, the constant depending on cc, the constant dd, and leave exactly xx. The remainders in the Taylor formulae and in (63) are bounded by the error in (62). Since 3/u0\ell^{3}/\sqrt{u}\to 0, this error is indeed o(1)o(1). ∎

Proof of Theorem 1.3.

By Theorem 1.2,

Ψ(r)=Φ(r)+O(r1/6).\Psi(r)=\Phi(r)+O(r^{-1/6}). (65)

The inlined expression in (14) is exactly β(Ln)\beta(L_{n}) from (61). Apply Lemma 5.2 with L=LnL=L_{n}. Since (βn+4x)1/4Ln1/4(\beta_{n}+4x)^{1/4}\asymp L_{n}^{1/4}, (65) and (62) give

Ψ((βn+4x)1/4)=Ln+x+o(1).\Psi\bigl((\beta_{n}+4x)^{1/4}\bigr)=L_{n}+x+o(1). (66)

Apply (57) to the distribution functions in Theorem 1.1 at the physical threshold n1/2(βn+4x)1/4n^{-1/2}(\beta_{n}+4x)^{1/4} and use (66); this proves (15) without assuming uniformity in xx in Theorem 1.1.

To obtain the affine form, put Un=nMn(B)U_{n}=\sqrt{n}\,M_{n}(B) and Yn=(Un4βn)/4Y_{n}=(U_{n}^{4}-\beta_{n})/4. The fourth-power limit gives YnGumY_{n}\Longrightarrow\operatorname{Gum}, hence Yn=O(1)Y_{n}=O_{\mathbb{P}}(1) and Un/βn1/41U_{n}/\beta_{n}^{1/4}\to 1 in probability. Factoring the difference of fourth powers therefore yields

βn3/4(Unβn1/4)\displaystyle\beta_{n}^{3/4}\bigl(U_{n}-\beta_{n}^{1/4}\bigr)
=βn3/4(Un4βn)Un3+Un2βn1/4+Unβn1/2+βn3/4=Yn+o(1),\displaystyle\quad=\frac{\beta_{n}^{3/4}\bigl(U_{n}^{4}-\beta_{n}\bigr)}{U_{n}^{3}+U_{n}^{2}\beta_{n}^{1/4}+U_{n}\beta_{n}^{1/2}+\beta_{n}^{3/4}}=Y_{n}+o_{\mathbb{P}}(1),

which proves (16).

Finally, (63) at x=0x=0 gives directly

βn=2Lnlog(2Ln)+2a2+o(1)=2Ln12logLn+4log(4π)+o(1),\sqrt{\beta_{n}}=2\sqrt{L_{n}}-\log(2\sqrt{L_{n}})+2a_{2}+o(1)=2\sqrt{L_{n}}-\frac{1}{2}\log L_{n}+4-\log(4\pi)+o(1),

which is the deterministic expansion preceding (17). Moreover,

nMn(B)2βn=n2Mn(B)4βnnMn(B)2+βn=o(1),nM_{n}(B)^{2}-\sqrt{\beta_{n}}=\frac{n^{2}M_{n}(B)^{4}-\beta_{n}}{nM_{n}(B)^{2}+\sqrt{\beta_{n}}}=o_{\mathbb{P}}(1),

and combining the last two displays proves (17). ∎

Proof of Corollary 1.4.

The event {Ψ(nMn,k)Lnx}\{\Psi(\sqrt{n}\,M_{n,k})-L_{n}\leq x\} says that at most k1k-1 anchors exceed the radius tn(x)t_{n}(x), namely Nn(tn(x),B)k1N_{n}(t_{n}(x);B)\leq k-1. The count inequalities above give

{Nn,κx(1+ε)(B)k1}\displaystyle\{N_{n,\kappa_{x}(1+\varepsilon)}(B)\leq k-1\} {Nn(tn(x);B)k1}\displaystyle\subset\{N_{n}(t_{n}(x);B)\leq k-1\}
{Nn,κx(1ε)(B)k1}.\displaystyle\subset\{N_{n,\kappa_{x}(1-\varepsilon)}(B)\leq k-1\}.

By Proposition 2.5, the outside counts converge to Poisson variables with means ex(1+ε)e^{-x}(1+\varepsilon) and ex(1ε)e^{-x}(1-\varepsilon). Their distribution functions at the integer k1k-1 are continuous in the mean. Letting ε0\varepsilon\downarrow 0 gives the claimed formula. ∎

Appendix A Compact uniformity in the disk-hole expansion

We prove Lemma 3.1. Throughout this appendix,

I=[t,t+](0,1),x=Nt2,tI.I=[t_{-},t_{+}]\Subset(0,1),\qquad x=Nt^{2},\qquad t\in I.

Choose once and for all ϵ(0,1/2)\epsilon\in(0,1/2) so that t+2/(1ϵ)<1t_{+}^{2}/(1-\epsilon)<1, and set

j:=x1+ϵ,j+:=x1ϵ,ϑ:=jx1+ϵ[0,1).j_{-}:=\left\lceil\frac{x}{1+\epsilon}\right\rceil,\qquad j_{+}:=\left\lfloor\frac{x}{1-\epsilon}\right\rfloor,\qquad\vartheta:=j_{-}-\frac{x}{1+\epsilon}\in[0,1).

For all sufficiently large NN, uniformly in tIt\in I, 1jj+N1\leq j_{-}\leq j_{+}\leq N. We use the exact decomposition

k=1NlogQ(k,x)=S<+S0+S>,\sum_{k=1}^{N}\log Q(k,x)=S_{<}+S_{0}+S_{>}, (67)

where

S<:=k=1j1logQ(k,x),S0:=k=jj+logQ(k,x),S>:=k=j++1NlogQ(k,x).S_{<}:=\sum_{k=1}^{j_{-}-1}\log Q(k,x),\quad S_{0}:=\sum_{k=j_{-}}^{j_{+}}\log Q(k,x),\quad S_{>}:=\sum_{k=j_{+}+1}^{N}\log Q(k,x).

In the proof of [5, Theorem 1.7], specialised to g=1,b=1,α=0g=1,b=1,\alpha=0, these are respectively the blocks S3,S4,S5S_{3},S_{4},S_{5}. Keeping ϑ\vartheta is essential: its terms cancel only after S<S_{<} and S0S_{0} have been added.

We begin by isolating the elementary asymptotic input. This also explains why the expansions below remain uniform when the disk parameter varies in a compact subset of the bulk.

Lemma A.1 (Uniform Barnes, Stirling, and trigamma expansions).

Let 0<c<C<0<c<C<\infty. Uniformly for y[cN,CN]y\in[cN,CN],

logG(y+1)\displaystyle\log G(y+1) =y22logy3y24+y2log(2π)112logy+ζ(1)+Oc,C(N2),\displaystyle=\frac{y^{2}}{2}\log y-\frac{3y^{2}}{4}+\frac{y}{2}\log(2\pi)-\frac{1}{12}\log y+\zeta^{\prime}(-1)+O_{c,C}(N^{-2}), (68)
logΓ(y)\displaystyle\log\Gamma(y) =(y12)logyy+12log(2π)+112y+Oc,C(N3),\displaystyle=\left(y-\frac{1}{2}\right)\log y-y+\frac{1}{2}\log(2\pi)+\frac{1}{12y}+O_{c,C}(N^{-3}), (69)
ψ1(y)\displaystyle\psi_{1}(y) =1y+12y2+16y3+Oc,C(N5).\displaystyle=\frac{1}{y}+\frac{1}{2y^{2}}+\frac{1}{6y^{3}}+O_{c,C}(N^{-5}). (70)

The bounds are unchanged if yy is perturbed by a quantity in a fixed bounded interval.

Proof.

These are the standard large-positive-argument expansions of the Barnes GG-function, the gamma function, and the trigamma function, with their first omitted terms used as remainder bounds. On the ray ycNy\geq cN, the usual remainders are bounded respectively by constant multiples of y2y^{-2}, y3y^{-3}, and y5y^{-5}. Replacing powers of y1y^{-1} by powers of N1N^{-1} gives the displayed estimates. If |h|C0|h|\leq C_{0}, then y+h[cN/2,2CN]y+h\in[cN/2,2CN] for all sufficiently large NN, uniformly in hh, which proves the final assertion. ∎

Lemma A.2 (The two outer blocks).

Uniformly for tIt\in I,

S>=OI(ecIN).S_{>}=O_{I}(e^{-c_{I}N}). (71)

Moreover,

S<=F1N2+F2NlogN+F3N+F5logN+F6+OI(logNN),S_{<}=F_{1}N^{2}+F_{2}N\log N+F_{3}N+F_{5}\log N+F_{6}+O_{I}\!\left(\frac{\log N}{N}\right), (72)

where

F1=\displaystyle F_{1}={} t44(1+ϵ)2(1+4ϵ2log(1+ϵ)),F2=t22(1+ϵ),\displaystyle-\frac{t^{4}}{4(1+\epsilon)^{2}}\bigl(1+4\epsilon-2\log(1+\epsilon)\bigr),\qquad F_{2}=-\frac{t^{2}}{2(1+\epsilon)},
F3=\displaystyle F_{3}={} t21+ϵ[(1ϑ)ϵ+1log(t2π)+ϵlogϵ1+ϵ+(ϑ1)log(1+ϵ)],\displaystyle\frac{t^{2}}{1+\epsilon}\left[(1-\vartheta)\epsilon+1-\log(t\sqrt{2\pi})+\epsilon\log\frac{\epsilon}{1+\epsilon}+(\vartheta-1)\log(1+\epsilon)\right],
F5=\displaystyle F_{5}={} 712ϑ2,\displaystyle\frac{7}{12}-\frac{\vartheta}{2},
F6=\displaystyle F_{6}={} 1+6ϑ212log(1+ϵ)1ϵ+12ϑ2logϵ+76logt+12log(2π)\displaystyle\frac{-1+6\vartheta^{2}}{12}\log(1+\epsilon)-\frac{1}{\epsilon}+\frac{1-2\vartheta}{2}\log\epsilon+\frac{7}{6}\log t+\frac{1}{2}\log(2\pi)
ϑlog(t2π)ζ(1).\displaystyle\hskip 48.36967pt-\vartheta\log(t\sqrt{2\pi})-\zeta^{\prime}(-1).
Proof.

For kj++1k\geq j_{+}+1, the gamma–Poisson identity and Chernoff’s bound imply

01Q(k,x)={Pois(x)k}ecϵx.0\leq 1-Q(k,x)=\mathbb{P}\{\operatorname{Pois}(x)\geq k\}\leq e^{-c_{\epsilon}x}.

Since xt2Nx\geq t_{-}^{2}N, and log(1u)2u-\log(1-u)\leq 2u for 0u1/20\leq u\leq 1/2, summing at most NN terms proves (71).

Put m=j1=x/(1+ϵ)+ϑ1m=j_{-}-1=x/(1+\epsilon)+\vartheta-1. Since kmk\leq m implies xkcϵxx-k\geq c_{\epsilon}x, the upper incomplete-gamma expansion [5, Lemma 5.1] is uniform in this range and gives

Q(k,x)=xkexΓ(k)(1xkx(xk)3+Rk,x),|Rk,x|Cϵx3.Q(k,x)=\frac{x^{k}e^{-x}}{\Gamma(k)}\left(\frac{1}{x-k}-\frac{x}{(x-k)^{3}}+R_{k,x}\right),\qquad|R_{k,x}|\leq C_{\epsilon}x^{-3}.

Taking the logarithm therefore yields, uniformly for 1km1\leq k\leq m,

logQ(k,x)=klogxxlogΓ(k)log(xk)x(xk)2+Oϵ(x2).\log Q(k,x)=k\log x-x-\log\Gamma(k)-\log(x-k)-\frac{x}{(x-k)^{2}}+O_{\epsilon}(x^{-2}). (73)

Summing and using

k=1mlogΓ(k)=logG(m+1),k=1mlog(xk)=logΓ(x)logΓ(xm),\sum_{k=1}^{m}\log\Gamma(k)=\log G(m+1),\qquad\sum_{k=1}^{m}\log(x-k)=\log\Gamma(x)-\log\Gamma(x-m),
k=1m1(xk)2=ψ1(xm)ψ1(x)\sum_{k=1}^{m}\frac{1}{(x-k)^{2}}=\psi_{1}(x-m)-\psi_{1}(x)

gives

S<=\displaystyle S_{<}={} m(m+1)2logxmxlogG(m+1)logΓ(x)+logΓ(xm)\displaystyle\frac{m(m+1)}{2}\log x-mx-\log G(m+1)-\log\Gamma(x)+\log\Gamma(x-m)
x{ψ1(xm)ψ1(x)}+OI(N1).\displaystyle-x\{\psi_{1}(x-m)-\psi_{1}(x)\}+O_{I}(N^{-1}). (74)

Here GG is Barnes’ GG-function and ψ1\psi_{1} is the trigamma function. Their arguments are bounded above and below by positive multiples of NN, uniformly for tIt\in I, so Lemma A.1 applies. To make the moving-endpoint bookkeeping explicit, put

α=(1+ϵ)1,δ=ϑ1[1,0),m=αx+δ.\alpha=(1+\epsilon)^{-1},\qquad\delta=\vartheta-1\in[-1,0),\qquad m=\alpha x+\delta.

Uniformly in ϑ[0,1]\vartheta\in[0,1], Taylor expansion gives

logm\displaystyle\log m =logxlog(1+ϵ)+(1+ϵ)δx(1+ϵ)2δ22x2+Oϵ(x3),\displaystyle=\log x-\log(1+\epsilon)+\frac{(1+\epsilon)\delta}{x}-\frac{(1+\epsilon)^{2}\delta^{2}}{2x^{2}}+O_{\epsilon}(x^{-3}), (75)
log(xm)\displaystyle\log(x-m) =logx+logϵ1+ϵ(1+ϵ)δϵx(1+ϵ)2δ22ϵ2x2+Oϵ(x3).\displaystyle=\log x+\log\frac{\epsilon}{1+\epsilon}-\frac{(1+\epsilon)\delta}{\epsilon x}-\frac{(1+\epsilon)^{2}\delta^{2}}{2\epsilon^{2}x^{2}}+O_{\epsilon}(x^{-3}). (76)

Insert (68)–(70) and (75)–(76) into (A). Because x=Nt2x=Nt^{2} and tIt\in I, every omitted term is uniform in tt and ϑ\vartheta. Collecting the coefficients of N2N^{2}, NlogNN\log N, NN, logN\log N, and 11 gives precisely F1,F2,F3,F5,F6F_{1},F_{2},F_{3},F_{5},F_{6}. This is also the specialisation of [5, Lemma 5.2]. ∎

Lemma A.3 (The transition block).

Let

𝒜=\displaystyle\mathcal{A}={} 0log(erfcy2)𝑑y+0[log(erfcy2)+y2+logy+log(2π)]𝑑y.\displaystyle\int_{-\infty}^{0}\log\!\left(\frac{\operatorname{erfc}y}{2}\right)\,\mathrm{d}y+\int_{0}^{\infty}\left[\log\!\left(\frac{\operatorname{erfc}y}{2}\right)+y^{2}+\log y+\log(2\sqrt{\pi})\right]\,\mathrm{d}y.

Uniformly for tIt\in I,

S0=E1N2+E2NlogN+E3N+E4N+E5logN+E6+OI(N1/12),S_{0}=E_{1}N^{2}+E_{2}N\log N+E_{3}N+E_{4}\sqrt{N}+E_{5}\log N+E_{6}+O_{I}(N^{-1/12}), (77)

where

E1=\displaystyle E_{1}={} t44(1+ϵ)2(2ϵϵ22log(1+ϵ)),E2=t2ϵ2(1+ϵ),\displaystyle\frac{t^{4}}{4(1+\epsilon)^{2}}\bigl(2\epsilon-\epsilon^{2}-2\log(1+\epsilon)\bigr),\qquad E_{2}=-\frac{t^{2}\epsilon}{2(1+\epsilon)},
E3=\displaystyle E_{3}={} t21+ϵ[(1+ϵϑ)log(1+ϵ)+ϵϑϵlog(ϵt2π)],E4=2t𝒜=a1t,\displaystyle\frac{t^{2}}{1+\epsilon}\left[(1+\epsilon-\vartheta)\log(1+\epsilon)+\epsilon\vartheta-\epsilon\log(\epsilon t\sqrt{2\pi})\right],\qquad E_{4}=\sqrt{2}\,t\mathcal{A}=a_{1}t,
E5=\displaystyle E_{5}={} 2ϑ14,E6=16ϑ212log(1+ϵ)+1ϵ+2ϑ12log(ϵt2π)2J2J+.\displaystyle\frac{2\vartheta-1}{4},\qquad E_{6}=\frac{1-6\vartheta^{2}}{12}\log(1+\epsilon)+\frac{1}{\epsilon}+\frac{2\vartheta-1}{2}\log(\epsilon t\sqrt{2\pi})-2J_{-}-2J_{+}.
Proof.

This is the k=2,b=1,α=0,rk=tk=2,b=1,\alpha=0,r_{k}=t specialisation of the final transition-block formula in [5, Lemma 3.26]. We verify the only point not explicit in that fixed-parameter statement: uniformity of its remainder for tIt\in I.

Set M=N1/12M=N^{1/12} and introduce

g:=x1+M/N,g+:=x1M/N.g_{-}:=\left\lceil\frac{x}{1+M/\sqrt{N}}\right\rceil,\qquad g_{+}:=\left\lfloor\frac{x}{1-M/\sqrt{N}}\right\rfloor.

The transition block is split exactly into the sums over [j,g1][j_{-},g_{-}-1], [g,g+][g_{-},g_{+}], and [g++1,j+][g_{+}+1,j_{+}], as in [5, (3.38)–(3.39)]. In the middle sum put vk=N(x/k1)v_{k}=\sqrt{N}(x/k-1). The uniform incomplete-gamma expansion in [5, Lemmas 2.3–2.4], differentiated there by analyticity and Cauchy’s formula, gives the central summand expansions used in [5, Lemmas 3.11 and 3.14]; in particular, [5, (3.46)–(3.52)] records the relevant terms. Their pointwise remainder is bounded by

CI(1+|vk|8)N3/2,|vk|M.C_{I}(1+|v_{k}|^{8})N^{-3/2},\qquad|v_{k}|\leq M.

The mesh and the number of summands can be tracked explicitly. Throughout the central window,

kN[t21+ϵ+O(N1),t+21ϵ+O(N1)](0,1),\frac{k}{N}\in\left[\frac{t_{-}^{2}}{1+\epsilon}+O(N^{-1}),\frac{t_{+}^{2}}{1-\epsilon}+O(N^{-1})\right]\Subset(0,1),

and

|vk+1vk|=Nxk(k+1)IN1/2.|v_{k+1}-v_{k}|=\frac{\sqrt{N}\,x}{k(k+1)}\asymp_{I}N^{-1/2}.

There are therefore OI(MN)O_{I}(M\sqrt{N}) central summands. Summing the pointwise polynomial remainder gives

OI(N3/2|vk|M(1+|vk|8))=OI(M9/N)=OI(N1/4).O_{I}\!\left(N^{-3/2}\sum_{|v_{k}|\leq M}(1+|v_{k}|^{8})\right)=O_{I}(M^{9}/N)=O_{I}(N^{-1/4}).

For the two matching sums, the estimates assembled in [5, Lemmas 3.16, 3.19–3.20 and 3.24–3.26], after subtraction of the polynomial and logarithmic tails of log(erfcy/2)\log(\operatorname{erfc}y/2), give

Ot(M5N)+Ot(NM7).O_{t}\!\left(\frac{M^{5}}{\sqrt{N}}\right)+O_{t}\!\left(\frac{\sqrt{N}}{M^{7}}\right). (78)

The constants are uniform on II: throughout those proofs, k/Nk/N stays in the fixed compact interval [t2/(1+ϵ),t+2/(1ϵ)](0,1)[t_{-}^{2}/(1+\epsilon),t_{+}^{2}/(1-\epsilon)]\Subset(0,1); all fractional endpoint parameters lie in [0,1][0,1]; and all coefficients and all finitely many derivative majorants are continuous functions of t,t1t,t^{-1}, and their logarithms on II. The complementary-error-function ratios are uniformly controlled after the rescaling y=tv/2y=tv/\sqrt{2}. More explicitly, denominators involving k/Nk/N and 1k/N1-k/N are bounded below by t2/(1+ϵ)t_{-}^{2}/(1+\epsilon) and 1t+2/(1ϵ)1-t_{+}^{2}/(1-\epsilon), respectively. Denominators involving x/k1x/k-1 are absorbed into the transition coordinate vv and are controlled by the displayed polynomial majorants. The rescaling y=tv/2y=tv/\sqrt{2} is uniformly bi-Lipschitz on II. The standard Mills-ratio estimates

ey2erfc(y)(1+y)1,y0,e^{y^{2}}\operatorname{erfc}(y)\asymp(1+y)^{-1},\qquad y\geq 0,

together with their differentiated forms, provide uniform polynomial majorants for the complementary-error-function quotients occurring in the Euler–Maclaurin remainders. Thus every OtO_{t}-constant in the cited finite list has bounded supremum on II.

For clarity, the complete transition error budget is

sourcebound for general Mbound for M=N1/12central summandsM9/NN1/4first matching rangeM5/NN1/12second matching rangeN/M7N1/12renormalized tailM2N1/6large-deviation tailNecM2NecN1/6.\begin{array}[]{c|c|c}\text{source}&\text{bound for general }M&\text{bound for }M=N^{1/12}\\ \hline\cr\text{central summands}&M^{9}/N&N^{-1/4}\\ \text{first matching range}&M^{5}/\sqrt{N}&N^{-1/12}\\ \text{second matching range}&\sqrt{N}/M^{7}&N^{-1/12}\\ \text{renormalized tail}&M^{-2}&N^{-1/6}\\ \text{large-deviation tail}&Ne^{-cM^{2}}&Ne^{-cN^{1/6}}.\end{array}

Thus N1/12N^{-1/12} is the dominant error. Specialising the coefficients in [5, Lemma 3.26] yields the displayed E1,,E6E_{1},\ldots,E_{6}. ∎

Completion of the proof of Lemma 3.1.

Add the three blocks in (67). Since S>S_{>} is exponentially small, Lemmas A.2 and A.3 give

k=1NlogQ(k,Nt2)=ν{1,2,3,5,6}(Fν+Eν)Ξν+E4N+OI(N1/12),\sum_{k=1}^{N}\log Q(k,Nt^{2})=\sum_{\nu\in\{1,2,3,5,6\}}(F_{\nu}+E_{\nu})\,\Xi_{\nu}+E_{4}\sqrt{N}+O_{I}(N^{-1/12}),

where Ξ1=N2\Xi_{1}=N^{2}, Ξ2=NlogN\Xi_{2}=N\log N, Ξ3=N\Xi_{3}=N, Ξ5=logN\Xi_{5}=\log N, and Ξ6=1\Xi_{6}=1. Direct algebra gives

F1+E1\displaystyle F_{1}+E_{1} =t44,\displaystyle=-\frac{t^{4}}{4}, F2+E2\displaystyle F_{2}+E_{2} =t22,\displaystyle=-\frac{t^{2}}{2},
F3+E3\displaystyle F_{3}+E_{3} =t2(1log(t2π)),\displaystyle=t^{2}\bigl(1-\log(t\sqrt{2\pi})\bigr), E4\displaystyle E_{4} =a1t,\displaystyle=a_{1}t,
F5+E5\displaystyle F_{5}+E_{5} =13,\displaystyle=\frac{1}{3}, F6+E6\displaystyle F_{6}+E_{6} =23logt+a0.\displaystyle=\frac{2}{3}\log t+a_{0}.

For the constant term, the cancellation can be seen without suppressing any endpoint contribution. The coefficients of log(1+ϵ)\log(1+\epsilon), 1/ϵ1/\epsilon, and logϵ\log\epsilon cancel separately. The remaining logarithms equal

76logt+12log(2π)12log(t2π)=23logt+14log(2π),\frac{7}{6}\log t+\frac{1}{2}\log(2\pi)-\frac{1}{2}\log(t\sqrt{2\pi})=\frac{2}{3}\log t+\frac{1}{4}\log(2\pi),

and the remaining constants are ζ(1)2J2J+-\zeta^{\prime}(-1)-2J_{-}-2J_{+}. Thus every occurrence of the auxiliary cutoff ϵ\epsilon and of the moving-endpoint fraction ϑ\vartheta cancels identically. Substituting the six sums above gives exactly (37), uniformly for tIt\in I.

Finally, the integrals defining a1,J,J+a_{1},J_{-},J_{+} are absolutely convergent. The cancellations can be checked directly. As y+y\to+\infty,

log(erfcy2)\displaystyle\log\!\left(\frac{\operatorname{erfc}y}{2}\right) =y2logylog(2π)12y2+58y4+O(y6),\displaystyle=-y^{2}-\log y-\log(2\sqrt{\pi})-\frac{1}{2y^{2}}+\frac{5}{8y^{4}}+O(y^{-6}),
ey2(15y2)3πerfcy\displaystyle\frac{e^{-y^{2}}(1-5y^{2})}{3\sqrt{\pi}\,\operatorname{erfc}y} =53y312y+1y94y3+O(y5).\displaystyle=-\frac{5}{3}y^{3}-\frac{1}{2}y+\frac{1}{y}-\frac{9}{4y^{3}}+O(y^{-5}).

Consequently, after the counterterms in (9)–(11) are subtracted, the positive-half-line integrands are respectively 12y2+O(y4)-\tfrac{1}{2}y^{-2}+O(y^{-4}) and y3+O(y5)-y^{-3}+O(y^{-5}). At -\infty,

erfcy2=1+O(ey2|y|),\frac{\operatorname{erfc}y}{2}=1+O\!\left(\frac{e^{-y^{2}}}{|y|}\right),

so the negative-half-line integrands decay exponentially. Near zero, the only nonsmooth terms are constant multiples of logy\log y and ylogyy\log y, both integrable. This proves absolute convergence. ∎

Acknowledgements

P.M. was supported by the Swedish Foundation for International Cooperation in Research and Higher Education (PD2023-9315).

Statement on the use of artificial intelligence

In the course of the research presented here I have been using AI tools extensively, most significantly ChatGPT Pro 5.5 and ChatGPT 5.6 Sol Ultra, for ideation, technical help, editing and checking the proofs, and general editing and proofreading of the manuscript, at the level of a leading co-author. All mistakes are my own responsibility.

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