This paper develops a unified theoretical framework for understanding the post-1973 divergence between the price of essential goods and the trajectory of median wages. It introduces three formal results that jointly explain why affordability has declined across housing, medical care, education, food, and energy despite decades of policy reform, technological improvement, and supply expansion. The Rentier–Asset Impossibility Theorem (RAIT) demonstrates that once essential goods acquire positive exposure to financial markets and are governed by required return floors, long-run price growth (...) must exceed median wage growth even under ideal competitive conditions. The Asset-Pricing Constraint on Essential Supply shows why additional physical capacity cannot restore affordability in such sectors: when prices are pinned to financial return requirements, new supply primarily expands the volume of investable claims rather than lowering long-run price levels. A third contribution, Dual-Curve Pricing and the Asset-Pricing Floor, formalizes the mechanism by which asset-pricing dynamics supplant ordinary marginal-cost pricing in inelastic necessities. Together, these results recast the affordability crisis as a structural feature of an asset-priced regime rather than a contingent policy failure. The paper situates this framework within a broader philosophy of economics by arguing that the transition after 1973 constitutes a regime shift in the ontology of essential goods—from wage-tethered utilities to financialized assets. Empirical signatures predicted by the theory (timing, magnitude, selectivity, and real-rate sensitivity) appear across every assetized sector. The concluding section argues that restoring affordability is not a technocratic optimization problem but a regime choice: societies must either maintain essentials as high-yield financial assets or reclassify them as low-return public utilities tethered to wages. (shrink)

This article presents a comprehensive framework for valuing financial instruments subject to credit risk. In particular, we focus on the impact of default dependence on asset pricing, as correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We analyze how swap rates are affected by bilateral counterparty credit risk, and how CDS spreads depend on the trilateral credit risk of the buyer, seller, and reference entity in a contract. Moreover, we study the effect of collateralization (...) on valuation, since the majority of OTC derivatives are collateralized. The model shows that a fully collateralized swap is risk-free, whereas a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent to a risk-free one. (shrink)

This paper presents a new model for pricing OTC derivatives subject to collateralization. It allows for collateral posting adhering to bankruptcy laws. As such, the model can back out the market price of a collateralized contract. This framework is very useful for valuing outstanding derivatives. Using a unique dataset, we find empirical evidence that credit risk alone is not overly important in determining credit-related spreads. Only accounting for both collateral arrangement and credit risk can sufficiently explain unsecured credit costs. This (...) finding suggests that failure to properly account for collateralization may result in significant mispricing of derivatives. We also empirically gauge the impact of collateral agreements on risk measurements. Our findings indicate that there are important interactions between market and credit risk. (shrink)

This article presents a new model for valuing financial contracts subject to credit risk and collateralization. Examples include the valuation of a credit default swap (CDS) contract that is affected by the trilateral credit risk of the buyer, seller and reference entity. We show that default dependency has a significant impact on asset pricing. In fact, correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We also show that a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent (...) to a risk-free one. In other words, full collateralization cannot eliminate counterparty risk completely in the CDS market. (shrink)

This paper introduces the Fiat-Credit Allocation Theorem (FCAT), developed by Aaron Black. Since the collapse of Bretton Woods in the early 1970s, advanced economies have operated under a distinct monetary and financial regime characterized by pure fiat currencies, elastic bank credit creation, and widespread securitization of cash flows. The Fiat–Credit Allocation Theorem (FCAT) is a structural law governing credit allocation in this post-1971 era. In a fiat system with low-friction securitization, credit endogenously expands into securitizable assets whenever their perceived risk-adjusted (...) expected returns exceed the system-wide required return on risky capital (r ˉ), and contracts when returns fall below this hurdle rate. In equilibrium, risk-adjusted returns on funded securitized cash flows converge to r ˉ, creating a yield-arbitrage mechanism that drives sustained asset-price inflation, financialization, rentier dominance, and recurrent credit-driven booms and busts. The theorem formalizes this process in a minimal continuous-time framework, proves convergence under mild assumptions, and interprets key post-Bretton Woods phenomena—decoupled capital returns from wage growth, persistent r>gdynamics, and leverage cycles—as equilibrium outcomes rather than anomalies. Empirical proxies, including yield convergence across securitized asset classes post-1971, support the model's predictions. FCAT provides a unified micro-founded explanation for the regime shift from production-constrained credit to yield-chasing credit, with implications for inequality, affordability in essential sectors, and the limits of supply-side reforms. (shrink)

This paper attempts to assess the economic significance and implications of collateralization in different financial markets, which is essentially a matter of theoretical justification and empirical verification. We present a comprehensive theoretical framework that allows for collateralization adhering to bankruptcy laws. As such, the model can back out differences in asset prices due to collateralized counterparty risk. This framework is very useful for pricing outstanding defaultable financial contracts. By using a unique data set, we are able to achieve a (...) clean decomposition of prices into their credit risk factors. We find empirical evidence that counterparty risk is not overly important in credit-related spreads. Only the joint effects of collateralization and credit risk can sufficiently explain unsecured credit costs. This finding suggests that failure to properly account for collateralization may result in significant mispricing of financial contracts. We also analyze the difference between cleared and OTC markets. (shrink)

The Flow of Money in the Economy: Conversion into Assets and Changing Velocity -/- Money is the lifeblood of an economy, continuously circulating and changing hands in various forms. At its core, all cash flows through the economy by being converted into assets with monetary value. The amount of money in circulation and its velocity—how quickly it moves from one transaction to another—fluctuate over time, shaping economic activity and stability. This essay explores the mechanisms through which money flows, how it (...) is converted into assets, and the dynamic changes in its volume and velocity. -/- The Conversion of Money into Assets -/- Every monetary transaction ultimately results in the conversion of cash into assets, whether tangible or intangible. This transformation occurs through various channels: -/- 1. Consumption and Investment -/- Money is frequently exchanged for goods and services that hold economic value, such as food, housing, and technology. These purchases represent an immediate transformation of cash into assets that provide utility to individuals and businesses. -/- Investments, including stocks, bonds, and real estate, convert money into financial assets that can appreciate in value or generate returns over time. -/- From low-income individuals to billionaires, all spending and investments are ultimately converted into assets with monetary value. These may include consumer goods, luxury items, corporate investments, or large-scale financial portfolios. -/- 2. Banking and Credit Creation -/- Money deposited in banks does not remain idle. Through fractional reserve banking, financial institutions lend out a portion of these deposits, effectively converting cash into new financial assets in the form of loans and credit. -/- This process expands the money supply by creating credit-based assets while maintaining a continuous flow of money within the economy. -/- 3. Government Spending and Taxation -/- Governments collect money through taxes and redistribute it via public expenditures, such as infrastructure projects, social services, and defense. -/- Public spending leads to the creation of physical and human capital assets, contributing to economic growth and societal development. -/- 4. Foreign Trade and Exchange Markets -/- Money flows between economies through imports and exports, converting into international assets. -/- Foreign direct investments (FDI) and currency exchanges further influence the global movement of money, shaping its conversion into diverse forms of assets. -/- The Changing Amount and Velocity of Money -/- While money is always in circulation, its flow rate and volume fluctuate due to several factors: -/- 1. Economic Cycles -/- During economic booms, money moves rapidly as businesses expand, consumers spend more, and investment activity increases. -/- In contrast, recessions slow down the velocity of money as people and businesses hold onto cash, reducing overall economic activity. -/- 2. Inflation and Deflation -/- Inflation decreases the purchasing power of money, leading individuals and companies to spend more quickly before prices rise further, increasing velocity. -/- Deflation has the opposite effect, causing people to hoard money in anticipation of lower prices, thereby slowing economic activity. -/- 3. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates -/- Central banks influence money flow by adjusting interest rates and implementing monetary policies that control liquidity. -/- Lower interest rates encourage borrowing and spending, accelerating money circulation, while higher rates reduce it. -/- 4. Technological Advances and Digital Payments -/- The rise of digital transactions, mobile banking, and cryptocurrencies has increased the speed of money flow. -/- Faster transaction processing reduces the time money remains idle, enhancing its velocity within the economy. -/- Conclusion -/- The flow of money within an economy is a dynamic process, continuously converting cash into assets while fluctuating in volume and velocity. Every transaction contributes to this transformation, whether through consumption, investment, banking, government activity, or international trade. From everyday consumers to billionaires, all spending and investments ultimately convert into assets with monetary value, reinforcing economic activity at all levels. Understanding these mechanisms is crucial for policymakers, businesses, and individuals alike, as managing money supply and velocity effectively determines economic stability and growth. In an era of digital finance and globalized markets, the ability to track and regulate these flows remains both a key challenge and an opportunity for sustaining economic prosperity. -/- . (shrink)

This study evaluates the scholarly validity of the Narrquest framework (Chen, 2026) through the lenses of financial decision-making and control theory. While Chen claims that "Invalidity Conditions (ICs)" and "self-constraints" optimize problem definitions, we contend the framework suffers from a terminal category error. By analyzing the decoupling of technical optimization from narrative (IC-2) and the retreat into value incommensurability (IC-3), this study demonstrates that within a financial system governed by capital asset pricing logic, any "narrative layer" failing to converge (...) with observable risk premiums or cash flow expectations constitutes mere information noise. Furthermore, we assert that the framework violates the fundamental principles of observability and controllability. A narrative explanation is deemed analytically unacceptable if it remains divergent from a verifiable valuation or lacks a corresponding control decision. The "self-constraint" mechanism is thus identified as a form of preemptive falsification avoidance, lacking the predictive power required for scientific inquiry. We conclude that the demarcation of meta-theoretical boundaries without empirical mapping yields no marginal contribution to financial models; without pricing convergence, Narrquest remains an academic tautology and a functional failure of system identification. Even in a system where pricing models are fully optimized, persistent deviations in agent behavior must be interpreted as a breakdown in convergence, requiring revaluation or model adjustment. Such deviations cannot be dismissed as benign anomalies; they necessitate a reassessment of the underlying valuation framework. (shrink)

The concept of non-arbitrage plays an essential role in finance theory. Under certain regularity conditions, the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing states that, in non-arbitrage markets, prices of financial instruments are martingale processes. In this theoretical framework, the analysis of the statistical distributions of financial assets can assist in understanding how participants behave in the markets, and may or may not engender arbitrage conditions. Assuming an underlying Variance Gamma statistical model, this study aims to test, using the FBST - (...) Full Bayesian Significance Test, if there is a relevant price difference between essentially the same financial asset traded at two distinct locations. Specifically, we investigate and compare the behavior of call options on the BOVESPA Index traded at (a) the Equities Segment and (b) the Derivatives Segment of BM&FBovespa. Our results seem to point out significant statistical differences. To what extent this evidence is actually the expression of perennial arbitrage opportunities is still an open question. (shrink)

Abstract This paper examines whether the continuous increase in money supply globally is directly caused by the rising wealth of the world’s richest billionaires. It distinguishes between money supply and wealth increase, explains how money supply is measured and controlled by central banks, and explores how asset price inflation contributes to wealth accumulation among billionaires. Using real-world examples, particularly the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic response, the paper elucidates how monetary policy and banking systems influence economic dynamics (...) and wealth distribution. -/- . (shrink)

Essential Microeconomics is designed to help students deepen their understanding of the core theory of microeconomics. Unlike other texts, this book focuses on the most important ideas and does not attempt to be encyclopedic. Two-thirds of the textbook focuses on price theory. As well as taking a new look at standard equilibrium theory, there is extensive examination of equilibrium under uncertainty, the capital asset pricing model, and arbitrage pricing theory. Choice over time is given extensive coverage and includes a (...) basic introduction to control theory. The final third of the book, on game theory, provides a comprehensive introduction to models with asymmetric information. Topics such as auctions, signaling and mechanism design are made accessible to students who have a basic rather than a deep understanding of mathematics. Examples and diagrams are used to illustrate issues as well as formal derivations. (shrink)

-/- Is Central Bank Quantitative Easing a Form of Charity? -/- Quantitative easing (QE) is a monetary policy tool used by central banks around the world to manage economic instability, particularly during periods of economic downturns or financial crises. The central aim of QE is to stimulate the economy by increasing the money supply, lowering interest rates, and encouraging lending and investment. Given its far-reaching effects on the financial markets and broader economy, there may be some confusion as to whether (...) QE could be considered a form of charity. However, while QE can have positive effects for the economy and its citizens, it is important to understand that it is not a form of charity, but rather a deliberate economic strategy with specific objectives. -/- Understanding Quantitative Easing -/- Quantitative easing is typically implemented when conventional monetary policy tools, like adjusting short-term interest rates, have been exhausted or are ineffective. During QE, central banks, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank, buy large quantities of government bonds or other financial assets from banks and financial institutions. This increases the amount of money circulating in the financial system, which, in turn, lowers long-term interest rates, encourages borrowing, and aims to boost investment and consumption. The ultimate goal is to stimulate economic growth, prevent deflation, and raise inflation to a targeted level. -/- The Pu’pose of Quantitative Easing -/- The primary purpose of QE is not to directly alleviate hardship or to help the most vulnerable members of society, as charity would. Rather, QE is aimed at stabilizing the economy and addressing systemic issues, such as high unemployment, low inflation, or stagnating economic growth. For instance, during the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent global recession, central banks implemented QE to prevent a complete collapse of the financial system. The intention was to create favorable conditions for businesses to invest and for consumers to spend, thereby stimulating economic recovery. While QE can have indirect benefits, such as helping to lower borrowing costs for individuals and businesses, its primary function is economic stabilization, not charitable giving. -/- The Distinction Between QE and Charity -/- Charity, by definition, involves the voluntary giving of resources or assistance to those in need, often with the goal of improving the well-being of the most disadvantaged members of society. Charitable efforts are typically aimed at providing direct assistance to individuals or groups who are facing hardship, such as through food banks, medical care, or educational support. Charitable actions focus on redistribution of wealth and resources to address inequality and poverty. -/- In contrast, QE is not targeted at helping individuals directly. Instead, it is a macroeconomic tool designed to affect the broader financial system and overall economy. While the effects of QE may eventually trickle down to benefit the general population—such as through lower interest rates, higher employment, and greater access to credit—these benefits are not guaranteed and are often indirect. Moreover, the implementation of QE can sometimes lead to unintended consequences, such as income inequality or the inflation of asset prices, which could exacerbate wealth disparities. -/- Unlike charity, which is generally driven by altruism and a desire to support those in need, QE is a policy response to systemic economic challenges. Its goals are economic stability and growth, not direct social welfare. -/- The Criticisms and Potential Drawbacks of Quantitative Easing -/- Despite its intended purpose of stimulating the economy, QE has been subject to criticism. One concern is that QE disproportionately benefits wealthier individuals and large financial institutions, as they are the primary holders of assets that are purchased by central banks. The infusion of money into the financial system can inflate asset prices, such as stock market values and real estate prices, benefiting those who are already wealthy and potentially exacerbating income inequality. For the broader population, the benefits of QE may not always be immediately apparent, and the policy’s success depends on other factors, such as consumer confidence and government fiscal policies. -/- Additionally, some critics argue that prolonged use of QE could lead to long-term risks, such as asset bubbles or excessive debt accumulation. If the central bank continues to inject large amounts of money into the economy without addressing underlying structural issues, it may create instability in the long run, rather than sustainable growth. -/- Conclusion -/- In conclusion, while quantitative easing may have positive effects on the economy, particularly in times of crisis, it cannot be accurately described as a form of charity. QE is an economic policy tool aimed at stabilizing the financial system, stimulating growth, and achieving macroeconomic goals such as low inflation and low unemployment. Its purpose is to address systemic economic problems, not to provide direct assistance to individuals in need. Unlike charity, which is often motivated by altruism and aimed at redistributing wealth to help the disadvantaged, QE is driven by the necessity of maintaining economic stability. As such, it is best understood as a strategic response to economic challenges rather than a charitable act. -/- . (shrink)

Milton Friedman famously argued that economic models do not require realistic assumptions in any literal psychological sense. Firms need not consciously maximize profits, and individuals need not explicitly solve utility problems, for a model to remain valid. They need only behave as if they are doing so, and the relevant test of the model is not the realism of its assumptions but its success in predicting the world. Let us grant that standard in full. Let us grant that investors do (...) not need to consciously think in terms of fragility, survivability, floor sensitivity, or terrain deformation. Let us grant that they need not speak the language of this paper at all. The issue is not introspection. The issue is whether variance-based asset pricing has identified the right object. If the standard frame were pricing the right burden, it should not need absurd risk aversion to reconcile demand for safety, limited equity participation, and large premia on junior claims. If, instead, investors and markets are responding to fragility—to the possibility of impairment, forced liquidation, floor breach, and nonlinear damage under deformation—then the apparent puzzle changes shape. In that case, the problem is not that investors fail to behave as if they maximize. The problem is that the model asks them to maximize relative to the wrong burden. This paper therefore accepts Friedman’s challenge rather than rejecting it. The question is not whether investors literally compute utility. The question is whether a variance-first model predicts successfully because it has captured the right object, or whether it survives only by forcing fragility-sensitive conduct through an inadequate proxy. If beta and volatility are not primitive measures of risk but shadow statistics of the coupling dynamics of the underlying operator, then the fight is clear. Price variance if you wish. But if fragility is the object that actually governs survival and selection, then variance-based asset pricing is defending a shadow while missing the structure casting it. Put simply, "Asset pricing has mistaken fluctuation in claims for risk, when what is actually priced is the survivability of the structures those claims sit on." or in the eternal words of Howard Marks, "You can tell where you are never where you're going" or even more simply. "You can't predict but you can prepare.". (shrink)

This article presents a new model for valuing a credit default swap (CDS) contract that is affected by multiple credit risks of the buyer, seller and reference entity. We show that default dependency has a significant impact on asset pricing. In fact, correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats in financial markets. We also show that a fully collateralized CDS is not equivalent to a risk-free one. In other words, full collateralization cannot eliminate counterparty risk completely (...) in the CDS market. (shrink)

The purpose of the research is to study the feasibility of using the combined modeling method in evaluation of business value. Modern approaches and methods of evaluating business value and the possibilities of combining them are explored. The peculiarities of the methodology of evaluating the business value by methods of Gordon Growth Model and Exit Multiple are disclosed. During the research the fair value of Luxoft company and the reasons for its deviation from the cost of sale are found. Luxoft’s (...) business value forecast is calculated by 2023. Recommendations for further development of the field of knowledge of modern business analyst are given. (shrink)

-/- Title: The Aftermath of Communism: What Happened When Communist Countries Transitioned -/- Introduction -/- Communism, as a political and economic ideology, shaped the lives of millions of people throughout the 20th century. Promising classless societies, public ownership, and central planning, communist regimes spread across Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America. However, by the late 1980s and early 1990s, communism collapsed in most of these countries, especially after the fall of the Soviet Union. The collapse did not merely signal (...) the end of a political system—it initiated a series of profound transformations in governance, economy, and society. This essay explores the consequences of the fall of communism across multiple nations and analyzes its lasting impact, supported by scholarly and historical sources. -/- 1. Political Transformations -/- The most visible consequence of communism’s failure was the dismantling of one-party systems. In Eastern Europe, the revolutions of 1989 were largely non-violent but deeply transformative. Countries like Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia negotiated peaceful transitions to democracy through popular movements like Solidarity in Poland and civic forums in Czechoslovakia (Ash, 1990). -/- In contrast, Romania experienced a violent revolution. The regime of Nicolae Ceaușescu collapsed after mass protests were met with violence, ultimately leading to his execution (Siani-Davies, 2005). Meanwhile, the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991 into 15 independent republics, ending the Communist Party’s rule after nearly 70 years. -/- However, democratization was not uniform. In Russia, initial democratic reforms under Boris Yeltsin were overshadowed by economic turmoil and political chaos. This paved the way for the rise of Vladimir Putin, who re-established centralized authoritarian control while maintaining the appearance of electoral democracy (Sakwa, 2008). -/- 2. Economic Transition and Its Discontents -/- The shift from centrally planned economies to capitalist market systems was arguably the most dramatic change. Under communism, governments controlled production, prices, and wages. The post-communist period, often referred to as “shock therapy,” involved rapid liberalization, privatization, and stabilization measures intended to integrate these economies into global markets (Åslund, 2002). -/- In Russia and other former Soviet republics, this transition led to hyperinflation, mass unemployment, and a sharp decline in GDP. Life expectancy dropped in Russia from 70 years in 1987 to 64 years by the mid-1990s (Cornia & Paniccià, 2000). Oligarchs gained control over former state assets in rigged privatization schemes, contributing to massive inequality and corruption (Klein, 2007). -/- Eastern European nations that joined the European Union, such as Poland, the Czech Republic, and the Baltic states, saw more stable transitions. They benefited from EU investment, structural reforms, and access to European markets, which helped their economies grow in the 2000s (Inglot, 2008). -/- 3. Social Dislocation and Cultural Identity -/- The social cost of post-communist transformation was immense. For many citizens, the collapse of communism meant the disappearance of guaranteed employment, subsidized housing, healthcare, and education. Rising unemployment, crime, and homelessness defined the early years of transition. Entire generations faced disillusionment and uncertainty, especially in countries that struggled to rebuild functional state institutions. -/- Nostalgia for communism began to appear in several countries. In Russia, surveys indicated that a significant portion of the population viewed the fall of the Soviet Union as a mistake (Pew Research Center, 2019). This sentiment was fueled by memories of stability and national pride, despite political repression. -/- In former East Germany, the term Ostalgie (nostalgia for the East) described a longing for the social security and community spirit of the former German Democratic Republic (Berdahl, 1999). Such nostalgia reveals the complexity of communist legacies and the psychological effects of rapid change. -/- 4. Conflict and Ethnic Tensions -/- In multi-ethnic states like Yugoslavia, the fall of communism unleashed nationalist forces that had been suppressed under authoritarian rule. The collapse of central authority led to brutal civil wars throughout the 1990s. The Bosnian War (1992–1995), marked by ethnic cleansing and genocide, was one of the bloodiest conflicts in Europe since World War II (Glenny, 1996). -/- In contrast, countries like Czechoslovakia peacefully separated into the Czech Republic and Slovakia in what became known as the “Velvet Divorce” in 1993, reflecting how different historical, ethnic, and political contexts shaped post-communist outcomes. -/- 5. Varied Legacies and Ongoing Impacts -/- Not all communist regimes collapsed. China, Vietnam, Laos, and Cuba retained communist leadership but adopted various forms of economic liberalization. China, in particular, became a global economic powerhouse after introducing market reforms under Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s, while still maintaining strict political control (Naughton, 2018). -/- The global influence of Marxist thought declined dramatically after the Cold War, but the legacies of communism remain visible in institutional cultures, economic inequalities, and national identities. Many countries are still dealing with the long-term effects of rapid privatization, social polarization, and weakened civic institutions. -/- Conclusion -/- The fall of communism marked a turning point in world history. While it opened doors to democracy and economic freedom for millions, it also unleashed chaos, inequality, and identity crises. The varied outcomes across post-communist countries highlight that the transition was not merely a rejection of one system but a complex and ongoing process of societal reinvention. As the world continues to grapple with rising authoritarianism, populism, and inequality, the lessons from post-communist transitions remain relevant—reminding us that ideological change alone does not guarantee human flourishing. -/- References -/- Ash, T. G. (1990). We the People: The Revolution of ’89 Witnessed in Warsaw, Budapest, Berlin, and Prague. Vintage. -/- Åslund, A. (2002). Building Capitalism: The Transformation of the Former Soviet Bloc. Cambridge University Press. -/- Berdahl, D. (1999). Where the World Ended: Re-Unification and Identity in the German Borderland. University of California Press. -/- Cornia, G. A., & Paniccià, R. (Eds.). (2000). The Transition: Economic Collapse and Recovery. Oxford University Press. -/- Glenny, M. (1996). The Fall of Yugoslavia: The Third Balkan War. Penguin Books. -/- Inglot, T. (2008). Welfare States in East Central Europe, 1919–2004. Cambridge University Press. -/- Klein, N. (2007). The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism. Metropolitan Books. -/- Naughton, B. (2018). The Chinese Economy: Adaptation and Growth. MIT Press. -/- Pew Research Center. (2019). European Public Opinion Three Decades After the Fall of Communism. -/- Sakwa, R. (2008). Putin: Russia’s Choice. Routledge. -/- Siani-Davies, P. (2005). The Romanian Revolution of December 1989. Cornell University Press. -/- . (shrink)

This paper presents a systematic review of generative artificial intelligence (AI) applications in fixed income markets, synthesizing insights from key studies published mostly between 2024 and 2025. The analysis spans the latest developments in AI-driven analytics, trading strategies, risk management techniques, and the evolution of investment approaches within this crucial sector of finance. The review covers advancements in interest rate yield curve modeling, algorithmic trading, credit and liquidity risk assessment, and structured product valuation. Special attention is given to the emergence (...) of large language models (LLMs), such as BondGPT and ChatGPT, and their integration into bond analytics, scenario generation, and regulatory workflows. These technologies are shown to enhance efficiency in bond analytics, trade documentation, liquidity analysis, and credit research, while also introducing new challenges related to model risk, data integrity, and compliance. Our findings highlight three core areas of innovation: (1) improved forecasting accuracy in interest rate models using hybrid AI architectures, (2) proposals for enhanced efficiency and automation in asset-backed securities (ABS) and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) pricing, and (3) explainable AI frameworks for compliance in risk-sensitive environments. Despite notable efficiency gains—ranging from 22% to 40% across key market functions—challenges persist around interpretability, data quality, and regulatory acceptance. Here, AI-driven valuation frameworks, scenario generation, and risk modeling innovations are accelerating the analysis and management of complex securities. Both the theoretical progress and practical impact of these models are explored in the paper, showing their abilities in explaining market patterns and their difficulties in meeting regulations. The study combines perspectives from academia, regulators and industry players to fully assess how AI is impacting the world of fixed income and offers suggestions for future improvements and best approaches. (shrink)

1. The most original discovery in Beauvoir’s book is one more Columbus’s egg, namely that it is far from evident that a woman is a woman. That is, she discovers that a woman is the result of a process that made so that she is like she is. The paper discusses two aspects of the so-to-say ‘ideology’ inspiring the work. The first is its ideology in the proper, Marxian sense. My claim is that the work still pays a heavy price (...) to the dominating ideology. It leaves still too much unquestionedof what was assumed at the time to be obvious, necessary, and unchanging. This ballast depends firstly on the inherited prevailing climate of opinion, corresponding to a situation of alienation, producing two distorted views of the male and female gender. On the other hand, it depends on an unquestioned legacy from the modern episteme (in Foucault’s sense of the word) carrying presupposed Cartesian dualism. The other side of the work’s ideology, that is, the positive program presented or better the utopia it formulates is less innovative than it could be, In a few passages, where she seems to make use of suggestions from Merleau-Ponty, she points at a view where the bodily and emotional dimension is rescued from its negation in the male-dominated Capitalist society. Still, these suggestions are forgotten in the bulk of the work. 2. The making of a philosophical work does not depend just on the kind of philosophical influences behind it. A book is also the product of an author with a story living in one society at a given time of social history. In this case, the book was written in the afterwar time when women were pushed back home again from the wartime labor market and when several of the goals reached by the first phase of feminist movements had gone lost in several European countries under Fascist or semi-fascist regimes and were being eroded in America by the reactionary climate of McCarthyism. It was a book written by an intellectual young woman in almost total isolation. These circumstances account for some more naïve suggestions from work: for ex., the idea that the alternative to the strategy once adopted by nineteenth-century emancipationist movements should be an individual inner process of transformation confined within the boundaries of one woman’s consciousness, or also, the idea that the goal of women’s liberation should be to bring all women to a condition similar of Simone de Beauvoir herself who, as an educated woman, earning her life by her work, and living in an allegedly equal state with an enlightened man (Jean-Paul Sartre!) in a relationship free from constraints (an unmarried couple!), was already exemplifying what a liberated woman’s life would be. 3. The reconstruction of the idea of femininity is still the most fruitful part of the work. It rejects the notion of femininity as an essence depending on biology or other factors and explores the making of this image as a result of a condition made of the social and economic state of affairs but as revived and actively mirrored through and by the consciousness of the very subjects suffering an oppressive situation. And the main novelty is the ‘discovery’ of asymmetry between the self-image of the male and the (self)-image of the woman, an asymmetry depending on the fact that the woman sees herself through the other’s eyes. 4. Later feminist writers such as Shulamit Firestone remarked that 'The Second Sex' heavily depended on several key-ideas from Sartre existential ontology. One crucial aspect is accepting the mind-body dualistic framework without any suspicion that such dualism could have been itself a projection of the basic experience of the male-female duality. I suggest that the philosophical legacy inherited from Sartre is on occasion an asset for Beauvoir’s innovative existential analysis of the feminine ‘condition,’ but on several occasions, it creates unnecessary obstacles for her project of a new comprehension of the feminine ‘situation,’ aimed at rescuing women from an 'inauthentic' self-definition. 5. The first among these poisoned gifts is Sartre’s idea of the individual as pure freedom and project. Merleau-Ponty’s criticism is well-known: Sartre draws a picture of the world as containing no more than ‘human beings and things,’ thus denying any substance to social relations, institutions, and culture. 6. The second is Sartre’s reconstruction of dialectics, understood as dialectics without synthesis. This is an enlightening tool when used to describe conflicts, in so far as it accounts for the emergence of the ‘other’ as what is excluded. But it becomes a boomerang when used to interpret any kind of relationship, leading to equate inter-subjectivity with conflict. 7. Suggestions coming from Merleau-Ponty’s phenomenological approach of positive value of the bodily dimension as such, and hence of the feminine body, are evoked here and there but never fully spelled out. The most shocking consequence of acceptance of the Cartesian or Sartrean dualist view is an almost total de-evaluation of sexuality, understood as an activity involving just one tiny part of the human body, going with the idea that overcoming the oppression of women implies de-empathizing biological differences that are after all tiny and devoid of value. Besides, Beauvoir falls back into the trap of grounding claims of equality between men and women on the assumption that biological differences are of limited relevance. The eventual reason for such a step back is the distorting Cartesian mirror into which Beauvoir still looks in the vain hope of discovering a disembodied self as the (Cartesian) subject of an impossible kind of liberation.The first among these poisoned gifts is Sartre’s idea of the individual as pure freedom and project. Merleau-Ponty’s criticism is well-known: Sartre draws a picture of the world as containing no more than ‘human beings and things’, thus denying any substance to social relations, institutions and culture. The second is Sartre’s reconstruction of dialectics, understood as a dialectic without a synthesis. This view of dialectics is an enlightening tool when used to describe conflicts. It may account for the emergence of the ‘other’ as what is excluded. However, it becomes a boomerang when used to interpret any relationship, leading to equate inter-subjectivity with conflict. Suggestions coming from Merleau-Ponty’s phenomenological approach would tend to admit that the bodily dimension as such has a positive value, and hence the feminine bodily dimension is not just indifferent, but instead gives women a point of view on the world different from the male point of view. These suggestions, yet, are evoked here and there but never fully spelt out. The most shocking consequence of acceptance of the Cartesian or Sartrean dualist view is an almost total de-evaluation of sexuality, understood as an activity involving just one tiny part of the human body, going with the idea that overcoming the oppression of women implies understressing biological differences that are after all tiny and devoid of value. Furthermore, Beauvoir falls back into the trap of grounding claims of equality between men and women on the assumption that physical differences are of limited relevance. The eventual reason for such step back is the distorting Cartesian mirror into which Beauvoir still looks in the vain hope of discovering a disembodied self as the (Cartesian) subject of an impossible kind of liberation. (shrink)

-/- The Influence of Global Events and Economic Policies on the Philippine Peso -/- The value of the Philippine peso (PHP) is shaped by both domestic and international factors. As a small, open economy, the Philippines is highly susceptible to global economic conditions. From changes in interest rates by major central banks to global crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, the peso’s value fluctuates in response to these external shocks. Moreover, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), as (...) the country’s central monetary authority, plays a significant role in managing the peso’s stability through policy interventions. In this essay, we will explore the impact of several global events on the Philippine peso and analyze how the BSP has responded to these challenges. -/- 1. The US Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Hikes (2022-2023) -/- The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to raise interest rates in 2022 and 2023 was one of the most influential events affecting global currencies, including the Philippine peso. The Fed’s interest rate hikes were implemented to combat rising inflation in the US. As a result, investors flocked to the US dollar, seeking higher returns on US assets, which led to an increased demand for the dollar. This made the US dollar stronger, thereby weakening other currencies like the peso. From around 50 pesos per US dollar in 2022, the peso depreciated to approximately 58 pesos per dollar by mid-2023. -/- The depreciation of the peso was compounded by higher import costs, particularly for oil, which made goods and services more expensive in the Philippines. In response to this, the BSP raised interest rates in a bid to curb inflation and attract investment. By making investments in the Philippines more attractive, the BSP hoped to support the peso and contain the inflationary pressures caused by the stronger US dollar. -/- 2. The COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2021) -/- The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 created a global economic shock that severely impacted the Philippines. During the early months of the pandemic, the economy contracted due to lockdowns, business closures, and disruptions in global supply chains. Additionally, the decline in remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) due to reduced international labor demand also weakened the peso. The currency weakened to about 52-53 pesos per dollar in 2020, reflecting the uncertainty of the global and local economy. -/- To mitigate the economic downturn, the BSP cut interest rates to historically low levels (down to 2% in 2020) in an effort to stimulate demand and support economic activity. The government also introduced fiscal stimulus packages aimed at boosting domestic consumption and helping businesses weather the crisis. While these measures helped stabilize the economy in the medium term, the peso continued to face pressure due to global economic uncertainty. -/- 3. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis -/- The 2008 global financial crisis, triggered by the collapse of major banks and financial institutions in the US, also had a significant impact on the Philippine peso. During this crisis, the US dollar strengthened as investors sought safe-haven assets. This global flight to safety led to a depreciation of the peso, which fell to around 48-50 pesos per dollar as capital flowed out of emerging markets, including the Philippines. -/- In response to this crisis, the BSP lowered interest rates to increase liquidity in the financial system and reduce the cost of borrowing. At the same time, the Philippine government implemented fiscal stimulus measures, including government spending programs, to support the economy. Despite the global economic turmoil, the Philippines was able to recover relatively quickly, aided by strong remittance inflows and a resilient domestic economy. -/- 4. The Russia-Ukraine War (2022-Present) -/- The Russia-Ukraine war, which began in early 2022, created major disruptions in global markets, particularly in oil prices and supply chains. The conflict caused global energy prices to spike, which severely impacted countries like the Philippines that are net importers of oil. The rise in oil prices led to an increase in the country’s import bill, which exacerbated the trade deficit and created downward pressure on the peso. -/- The peso weakened further, reaching record lows against the US dollar in 2022-2023, as investors grew more risk-averse and shifted their capital into the US dollar. The geopolitical instability and higher global energy prices also led to inflationary pressures in the Philippines, further straining the economy. -/- To counter these effects, the BSP raised interest rates to stabilize the peso and attract foreign investment. The Philippine government also explored alternative sources of energy to reduce reliance on volatile oil markets. Despite these efforts, the peso continued to face challenges due to the broader geopolitical instability and global economic disruptions caused by the war. -/- 5. Oil Price Shocks -/- Historically, oil price shocks have played a major role in influencing the value of the peso. As a net importer of oil, the Philippines is particularly vulnerable to increases in global oil prices. When oil prices rise significantly, the Philippines experiences higher import costs, which puts pressure on the country’s trade balance and leads to a weakening of the peso. This effect was particularly evident during the 2008 and 2011 oil price surges, when the peso weakened significantly as the country’s import bill surged. -/- During these periods, the BSP typically raised interest rates to curb inflation and stabilize the currency. Additionally, the government sought to reduce its dependence on oil imports by promoting energy diversification and increasing energy efficiency. These efforts aimed to mitigate the long-term impact of oil price fluctuations on the Philippine economy and the peso. -/- BSP Responses to Global Economic Pressures -/- Throughout these global events, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has taken a variety of steps to stabilize the peso and manage inflationary pressures. Some of the key responses include: -/- Raising interest rates to attract foreign capital and increase demand for the peso. -/- Selling foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the currency during periods of excessive volatility. -/- Lowering interest rates during economic downturns to stimulate domestic demand and support economic growth. -/- Intervening in the foreign exchange market to smooth out large fluctuations in the value of the peso. -/- Managing fiscal policy, including government spending and borrowing, to ensure long-term economic stability. -/- Through these interventions, the BSP has played a crucial role in maintaining the stability of the Philippine peso, ensuring that it remains resilient in the face of global economic shocks. -/- Conclusion -/- In conclusion, the value of the Philippine peso is shaped by a complex interplay of global economic events and domestic policy responses. Events like the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2008 global financial crisis, the Russia-Ukraine war, and oil price shocks have all contributed to fluctuations in the peso’s value. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has played an essential role in stabilizing the peso through interest rate adjustments, foreign exchange interventions, and fiscal management. Despite facing significant challenges, the peso has shown resilience, thanks to the BSP’s active role in managing both domestic and external economic pressures. -/- As global events continue to influence the value of currencies, the BSP’s ability to respond effectively will remain crucial in maintaining the peso’s stability and ensuring the long-term health of the Philippine economy. -/- . (shrink)

Gold and Its Role in War, Economy, and the Shift to Fiat Currency -/- Gold has long been a symbol of wealth, power, and economic stability. Historically, it was used as money, backing national currencies and serving as a reserve asset. However, its limitations led to the shift toward fiat currency, which provides greater flexibility in managing modern economies. Gold has also played a crucial role in global conflicts, particularly World War II, where nations hoarded, looted, and traded gold (...) to finance their war efforts. Understanding the relationship between gold, war, and economic stability explains why the world moved away from the gold standard and adopted fiat money. -/- The Limitations of Gold as Money -/- While gold has been used as currency for centuries, it has several drawbacks that make it unsuitable for modern economies. First, gold is not easily divisible or portable, making everyday transactions impractical. Carrying and transferring large amounts of gold requires security and infrastructure, increasing costs. Additionally, gold supply is limited, meaning that as economies grow, the money supply cannot expand accordingly, leading to deflation and economic stagnation. -/- Gold’s price volatility also makes it a poor monetary standard. Unlike fiat money, which governments can regulate, gold’s value fluctuates based on mining output, global demand, and geopolitical events. This instability can create uncertainty in financial markets. Moreover, in today’s digital economy, gold cannot facilitate rapid, electronic transactions, making it inefficient for global trade. -/- Perhaps the most significant limitation is that a gold-based system restricts monetary policy. Governments and central banks use interest rates and money supply adjustments to manage inflation, unemployment, and economic growth. A gold standard would prevent these interventions, making financial crises harder to control. -/- Gold and Economic Conflicts -/- If gold were still the primary form of money, it could lead to major economic and geopolitical conflicts. Gold is not evenly distributed worldwide, meaning nations with larger reserves would have disproportionate financial power, potentially leading to tensions and wars over resources. -/- A gold-based economy would also increase economic instability. Countries would hoard gold during crises, reducing money circulation and triggering deflation, unemployment, and recessions. Additionally, a reliance on gold would encourage illegal mining, black markets, and corruption, further destabilizing global economies. -/- Gold’s Role in World War II -/- Gold played a crucial role in World War II, financing both the Axis and Allied powers. Nations used gold to purchase war materials, pay for military expenses, and maintain economic stability during the conflict. -/- Nazi Germany’s Gold Hoarding and Economic Warfare -/- The Third Reich relied heavily on stolen gold to finance its war machine. The Nazis: -/- Looted central bank reserves from occupied countries such as Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Belgium, and France. -/- Stole gold from individuals, especially Jewish victims of the Holocaust, by confiscating jewelry, coins, and even extracting gold from dental fillings. -/- Traded stolen gold with neutral countries, such as Switzerland, Spain, and Portugal, in exchange for vital war materials like oil, tungsten, and industrial equipment. -/- Deposited gold in Swiss banks, where it was laundered and converted into usable currency, allowing the Nazis to bypass economic sanctions. -/- Japan’s Gold Operations in Asia -/- Japan also plundered gold and resources from occupied territories in China, the Philippines, Malaya, and Indonesia. Some theories suggest Japan hid large amounts of looted gold, known as “Yamashita’s Gold”, in underground vaults in the Philippines. Like Germany, Japan used stolen gold to trade for fuel, weapons, and technology. -/- Allied Powers and Gold Reserves -/- While the Axis relied on looted gold, the Allied powers used their national gold reserves to finance their war efforts: -/- The United States and Britain backed war loans and military production with gold reserves. The U.S. used its gold stockpile to fund the Lend-Lease Program, which provided military aid to allies such as Britain, the Soviet Union, and China. -/- Britain moved its gold reserves to Canada for safekeeping, fearing a German invasion. -/- The Soviet Union used gold to purchase war materials from neutral nations, ensuring its war effort remained well-supplied. -/- Neutral countries like Switzerland, Spain, and Portugal facilitated war financing by exchanging gold for goods, often ignoring its origins. Swiss banks in particular played a key role in laundering Nazi gold, enabling Germany to continue funding its military. -/- The Shift to Fiat Currency -/- World War II demonstrated the financial instability of relying on gold, leading to major economic reforms. In 1944, the Bretton Woods Agreement established a new financial system, where the U.S. dollar was linked to gold, and other currencies were pegged to the dollar. This created stability in global finance. However, as economies grew, the limitations of gold-backed currency became clear. In 1971, the U.S. abandoned the gold standard, transitioning to a fully fiat currency system. -/- Fiat money allows governments to: -/- Expand the money supply to support economic growth. -/- Adjust interest rates and inflation to stabilize economies. -/- Avoid deflation and liquidity crises that plagued the gold standard. -/- Fiat currency also eliminates gold-related conflicts and reduces dependence on resource-intensive mining, benefiting both economies and the environment. -/- Conclusion -/- Gold has played a central role in economic history, from its use as money to its impact on global conflicts. While valuable, gold is impractical as modern money due to its physical limitations, deflationary risks, and geopolitical consequences. World War II showcased the dangers of gold hoarding and economic warfare, leading to the adoption of fiat currency. The transition to fiat money has enabled greater economic stability, flexibility, and global trade, making it the foundation of the modern financial system. -/- . (shrink)

-/- The Impact of Tariffs on 401(k) Pension Funds: An Examination of Economic and Market Reactions -/- In recent years, economic policy decisions, including tariffs, have had significant effects on global markets and individual financial plans. One of the key areas where such policy decisions are felt is in retirement savings, particularly in 401(k) pension funds. A 401(k) is a retirement savings plan that allows individuals to invest a portion of their income in various assets, most commonly stocks and bonds, (...) to secure their financial future. The performance of these assets, in turn, affects the overall value of the pension. Tariffs, a tool often used by governments to regulate trade and economic relationships, can influence market conditions, and their potential impact on 401(k) pension funds deserves closer attention. -/- Understanding Tariffs and Their Economic Impact -/- Tariffs are taxes or duties placed on imported goods, designed to protect domestic industries by making foreign products more expensive and encouraging consumers to purchase locally produced goods. While tariffs can benefit specific sectors by giving them a competitive edge, they can also disrupt global trade, increase costs for businesses, and introduce uncertainty into the market. -/- For example, during Donald Trump’s administration, a series of tariffs were imposed on goods imported from China, among other nations. These tariffs aimed to reduce trade imbalances and encourage more domestic manufacturing. However, the repercussions were mixed, as certain sectors, such as technology and agriculture, were particularly impacted, facing higher costs and a decrease in export demand. Additionally, the tariffs led to retaliatory measures from affected trading partners, escalating global trade tensions. -/- The Direct Impact of Tariffs on 401(k) Pension Funds -/- 401(k) pension funds are typically invested in a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, and other assets. The underlying principle is that, over time, the value of these investments will grow, allowing individuals to build a nest egg for retirement. However, this value is subject to fluctuations in the market, which can be influenced by a wide array of factors, including government policies like tariffs. -/- 1. Stock Market Volatility: One of the most direct ways in which tariffs can affect 401(k) accounts is through stock market volatility. When tariffs are introduced, especially between major economies like the United States and China, the financial markets often react negatively. Investors may worry about the future profitability of companies that rely on international trade. For instance, if a company faces higher production costs due to tariffs on imported raw materials or sees a reduction in its ability to export goods, its stock price may drop. Since many 401(k) plans invest heavily in stocks, a fall in stock prices can reduce the overall value of these retirement accounts. -/- 2. Global Supply Chains and Corporate Profitability: Tariffs can disrupt global supply chains, especially in industries that rely on materials and goods from abroad. The imposition of tariffs increases costs for businesses that rely on these imports. This, in turn, can lead to lower profit margins, which could negatively affect stock prices. For example, if a manufacturing company faces higher costs for imported components due to tariffs, its bottom line may suffer, and its stock price may fall. A 401(k) invested in such companies would likely experience a reduction in value. -/- 3. Sector-Specific Effects: The effects of tariffs are often uneven across industries. Certain sectors, such as agriculture, automotive, and technology, may feel the effects more acutely due to their reliance on international trade. If a 401(k) has a significant portion of its portfolio invested in industries most affected by tariffs, those investments could experience greater declines. Conversely, sectors that benefit from tariffs, such as domestic manufacturing, might see an increase in profitability, which could boost the value of investments in those areas. Therefore, the impact of tariffs on a 401(k) account depends largely on the sector allocation within the portfolio. -/- The Long-Term Perspective -/- Despite the short-term market disruptions that tariffs may cause, it’s important to remember that 401(k) accounts are designed for long-term retirement savings. Market volatility, including the effects of tariffs, is part of the natural ebb and flow of financial markets. Historically, stock markets have rebounded from downturns, and long-term investors have seen their investments recover and grow over time. -/- For those with a 401(k), it’s crucial to maintain a diversified portfolio that balances potential risks and rewards. Diversification helps mitigate the impact of any single economic event, such as tariffs, on the overall performance of the fund. A well-diversified 401(k) may include domestic and international stocks, bonds, and alternative investments, spreading the risk and reducing the exposure to any single factor, including trade policy changes. -/- Conclusion -/- The imposition of tariffs, while an effective tool for governments to influence trade and protect domestic industries, can have far-reaching consequences on financial markets and, consequently, on individual retirement plans such as 401(k) pensions. The stock market volatility, disruptions to global supply chains, and sector-specific effects of tariffs can cause fluctuations in the value of 401(k) investments. However, since 401(k) plans are long-term investments, the short-term effects of tariffs may not have a lasting impact if investors remain focused on their long-term financial goals and maintain a diversified portfolio. As always, it is essential for individuals to stay informed about economic policies and consult with financial advisors to ensure that their retirement plans are well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties. -/- . (shrink)

Gold and Its Role in War, Economy, and the Shift to Fiat Currency -/- Gold has long been a symbol of wealth, power, and economic stability. Historically, it was used as money, backing national currencies and serving as a reserve asset. However, its limitations led to the shift toward fiat currency, which provides greater flexibility in managing modern economies. Gold has also played a crucial role in global conflicts, particularly World War II, where nations hoarded, looted, and traded gold (...) to finance their war efforts. Understanding the relationship between gold, war, and economic stability explains why the world moved away from the gold standard and adopted fiat money. -/- The Limitations of Gold as Money -/- While gold has been used as currency for centuries, it has several drawbacks that make it unsuitable for modern economies. First, gold is not easily divisible or portable, making everyday transactions impractical. Carrying and transferring large amounts of gold requires security and infrastructure, increasing costs. Additionally, gold supply is limited, meaning that as economies grow, the money supply cannot expand accordingly, leading to deflation and economic stagnation. -/- Gold’s price volatility also makes it a poor monetary standard. Unlike fiat money, which governments can regulate, gold’s value fluctuates based on mining output, global demand, and geopolitical events. This instability can create uncertainty in financial markets. Moreover, in today’s digital economy, gold cannot facilitate rapid, electronic transactions, making it inefficient for global trade. -/- Perhaps the most significant limitation is that a gold-based system restricts monetary policy. Governments and central banks use interest rates and money supply adjustments to manage inflation, unemployment, and economic growth. A gold standard would prevent these interventions, making financial crises harder to control. -/- Gold and Economic Conflicts -/- If gold were still the primary form of money, it could lead to major economic and geopolitical conflicts. Gold is not evenly distributed worldwide, meaning nations with larger reserves would have disproportionate financial power, potentially leading to tensions and wars over resources. -/- A gold-based economy would also increase economic instability. Countries would hoard gold during crises, reducing money circulation and triggering deflation, unemployment, and recessions. Additionally, a reliance on gold would encourage illegal mining, black markets, and corruption, further destabilizing global economies. -/- Gold’s Role in World War II -/- Gold played a crucial role in World War II, financing both the Axis and Allied powers. Nations used gold to purchase war materials, pay for military expenses, and maintain economic stability during the conflict. -/- Nazi Germany’s Gold Hoarding and Economic Warfare -/- The Third Reich relied heavily on stolen gold to finance its war machine. The Nazis: -/- Looted central bank reserves from occupied countries such as Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Belgium, and France. -/- Stole gold from individuals, especially Jewish victims of the Holocaust, by confiscating jewelry, coins, and even extracting gold from dental fillings. -/- Traded stolen gold with neutral countries, such as Switzerland, Spain, and Portugal, in exchange for vital war materials like oil, tungsten, and industrial equipment. -/- Deposited gold in Swiss banks, where it was laundered and converted into usable currency, allowing the Nazis to bypass economic sanctions. -/- Japan’s Gold Operations in Asia -/- Japan also plundered gold and resources from occupied territories in China, the Philippines, Malaya, and Indonesia. Some theories suggest Japan hid large amounts of looted gold, known as “Yamashita’s Gold”, in underground vaults in the Philippines. Like Germany, Japan used stolen gold to trade for fuel, weapons, and technology. -/- Allied Powers and Gold Reserves -/- While the Axis relied on looted gold, the Allied powers used their national gold reserves to finance their war efforts: -/- The United States and Britain backed war loans and military production with gold reserves. The U.S. used its gold stockpile to fund the Lend-Lease Program, which provided military aid to allies such as Britain, the Soviet Union, and China. -/- Britain moved its gold reserves to Canada for safekeeping, fearing a German invasion. -/- The Soviet Union used gold to purchase war materials from neutral nations, ensuring its war effort remained well-supplied. -/- Neutral countries like Switzerland, Spain, and Portugal facilitated war financing by exchanging gold for goods, often ignoring its origins. Swiss banks in particular played a key role in laundering Nazi gold, enabling Germany to continue funding its military. -/- The Shift to Fiat Currency -/- World War II demonstrated the financial instability of relying on gold, leading to major economic reforms. In 1944, the Bretton Woods Agreement established a new financial system, where the U.S. dollar was linked to gold, and other currencies were pegged to the dollar. This created stability in global finance. However, as economies grew, the limitations of gold-backed currency became clear. In 1971, the U.S. abandoned the gold standard, transitioning to a fully fiat currency system. -/- Fiat money allows governments to: -/- Expand the money supply to support economic growth. -/- Adjust interest rates and inflation to stabilize economies. -/- Avoid deflation and liquidity crises that plagued the gold standard. -/- Fiat currency also eliminates gold-related conflicts and reduces dependence on resource-intensive mining, benefiting both economies and the environment. -/- Conclusion -/- Gold has played a central role in economic history, from its use as money to its impact on global conflicts. While valuable, gold is impractical as modern money due to its physical limitations, deflationary risks, and geopolitical consequences. World War II showcased the dangers of gold hoarding and economic warfare, leading to the adoption of fiat currency. The transition to fiat money has enabled greater economic stability, flexibility, and global trade, making it the foundation of the modern financial system. -/- . (shrink)

This study aimed to determine the sustainable marketing strategies for micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. In this research technique, a quantitative descriptive survey was utilized to examine 363 MSMEs in designated cities and municipalities in Pangasinan, such as Binmaley, Calasiao, Dagupan City, Mangaldan, San Carlos City, Santa Barbara, and Urdaneta City, all registered with the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI). According to the findings, manufacturing is the primary industry for most respondents; they are sole (...) proprietorships with less than PhP3 Million in assets, have 1-9 employees, and have been in operation for less than three years. The sustainable marketing strategies implemented by the MSMEs in terms of product, place, price, promotion, physical evidence, people, and process are considered extremely important. The level of effectiveness in sustaining marketing strategies of MSMEs is considered very effective. The respondents assessed the problems encountered by the MSMEs in sustaining marketing strategies as extremely serious. It can be concluded that the majority of the respondents were in the manufacturing business, a single type of business organization, and, capitalization comprises not more than 3 million. Most of them have a minimal number of employees and operate for a short time. For the sustainable marketing strategies implemented by the MSMEs product, place, price, physical evidence, people and process are extremely important while promotions are very important. The effectiveness of 7ps of marketing is considered very effective. The respondent’s problems encountered by the MSMEs in sustaining marketing strategies as extremely serious. (shrink)

Scientific sources demonstrate different attitudes of researchers to cryptocurrencies because they treat them as a category of currency, virtual money, commodity, etc. Accordingly, the relation to the valuation and risk of cryptocurrency as an investment object is different. The purpose of the article is to identify cryptocurrency value formation factors and determine the risks of investing in cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency is simultaneously considered a currency, an asset with uncertain income, and a specific product, the price of which is determined by (...) the energy costs for mining new cryptocurrency blocks. Thus, the paper examines the risks of investing in cryptocurrency from several positions. First, the study identifies the factors of formation of the value and risk of cryptocurrency as ordinary money based on comparing cryptocurrency with traditional money. Unlike traditional money, cryptocurrency is not tied to the economic performance of a particular country; also, central banks do not control or regulate their mining. Instead, the cryptocurrency emissions depend on the computational capacity of the equipment used for their mining. As a financial asset, cryptocurrency can be a “financial bubble” because their value increasing often exceeds the cost of mining. On the other hand, given the emergence of cryptocurrency as a phenomenon of the information economy, the paper analyses the impact of specific technical features (cryptographic hashing algorithm, the complexity of creating new blocks, the technology of verification of mining operations, etc.) on the risk of investing in cryptocurrency assets. (shrink)

The article reveals a conceptual basis of the cryptocurrency functioning. The main types of cryptocurrencies are featured and analyzed as well as their general strengths and weaknesses. Based on the price dynamics correlation analysis of some cryptocurrency types, a general low level of dependence between digital assets is established. The main functions of the cryptocurrency are formulated in the form of transformed money functions. Also, additional functions of cryptocurrencies are defined on the basis of their innovative nature, as well as (...) the role in the modern financial system and world economic relations. (shrink)

Responding to Lewis’s (1976) defense of the consistency of time travel (TT), Horwich (1987) and Price (1996) claim that TT may nevertheless be shown to be improbable, due to its need for unlikely coincidences. Smith (1997, 2024) and Ismael (2003) reply, correctly, that this begs the question against TT. Where does this leave us, and TT itself? To put the issue in a broader frame, I note (i) a Lewis-inspired “defense” of Aristotelian mechanics against a famous argument by Galileo; and (...) (ii) the relevance of the Duhem-Quine Thesis. With a range of comparison cases thus in view, TT may be assessed by the Quinean pragmatic standards for theory choice that Lewis elsewhere endorses. I conclude that it is not unreasonable to conclude that TT is highly implausible, despite the fallacy of a direct appeal to the unlikelihood of coincidences. By Lewis’s own standards, treating Quinean pragmatic virtue as a guide to truth, this amounts to an argument for the epistemic improbability of TT. (shrink)

In his influential book 'Making Things Happen' and in other places, Jim Woodward has noted some affinities between his own account of causation and that of Menzies and Price, but argued that the latter view is implausibly ‘subjective’. In this piece I discuss Woodward’s criticisms. I argue that the Menzies and Price view is not as different from Woodward’s own account as he believes, and that in so far as it is different, it has some advantages whose importance Woodward misses; (...) but also that the Menzies and Price view lacks some elements whose importance Woodward rightly stresses. When properly characterized, however, the ‘subjectivity’ survives unscathed. (shrink)

This paper discusses the relation between Crispin Wright’s alethic pluralism and my global expressivism. I argue that on many topics Wright’s own view counts as expressivism in my sense, but that truth itself is a striking exception. Unlike me, Wright never seems to countenance an expressivist account of truth, though the materials needed are available to him in his approaches to other topics.

Many areas of philosophy employ a distinction between factual and non-factual (descriptive/non-descriptive, cognitive/non-cognitive, etc) uses of language. This book examines the various ways in which this distinction is normally drawn, argues that all are unsatisfactory, and suggests that the search for a sharp distinction is misconceived. The book develops an alternative approach, based on a novel theory of the function and origins of the concept of truth. The central hypothesis is that the main role of the normative notion of truth (...) is to encourage speakers to argue, with long-run behavioural advantages. This offers a fresh perspective on many debates about realism in contemporary philosophy. [A new, greatly extended edition of this book is forthcoming from OUP in 2025 – a draft of the new edition is also available on PhilPapers.]. (shrink)

This is an unpublished piece from July 1998. It discusses the use of semantic notions such as reference in the Canberra Plan, the question whether this use creates a problematic circularity if the Canberra Plan is applied to the semantic notions themselves, and the relation of this question to Putnam’s model-theoretic argument. I used some of the ideas in later papers such as (Price 2004, 2009) and (Menzies & Price, 2009), but the bulk of discussion of the relation of my (...) concern to Putnam’s argument (and to responses to Putnam by others) never made it into print. (shrink)

Are the distinctions between past, present and future, and the apparent ‘passage’ of time, features of the world in itself, or manifestations of the human perspective? Questions of this kind have been at the heart of metaphysics of time since antiquity. The latter view has much in common with pragmatism, though few in these debates are aware of that connection, and few of the view’s proponents think of themselves as pragmatists. For their part, pragmatists are often unaware of this congenial (...) application of their methodology; some associate pragmatism with the other side of the old debate in the metaphysics of time. In my view, this link between time and pragmatism only scratches the surface of the deep two-way dependencies between these two topics. The human temporal perspective turns out to be deeply implicated not merely in our temporal notions themselves, but in many other conceptual categories – arguably, in fact, in all of them, and in the nature of language and thought. In this way, reflection on our own temporal character vindicates James’ famous slogan for global pragmatism: ‘The trail of the human serpent is thus over everything.’. (shrink)

One of the most striking features of causation is that causes typically precede their effects – the causal arrow is strongly aligned with the temporal arrow. Why should this be so? We offer an opinionated guide to this problem, and to the solutions currently on offer. We conclude that the most promising strategy is to begin with the de facto asymmetry of human deliberation, characterised in epistemic terms, and to build out from there. More than any rival, this subjectivist approach (...) promises to demystify the asymmetry, temporal orientation, and deliberative relevance of causal judgements. (shrink)

There is a current debate about the grammar of intention: do I intend to φ, or that I φ? The equivalent question in Aristotle relates especially to choice. I argue that, in the context of practical reasoning, choice, as also wish, has as its object an act. I then explore the role that this plays within his account of the relation of thought to action. In particular, I discuss the relation of deliberation to the practical syllogism, and the thesis that (...) the conclusion of the second is an action. (shrink)

Ismael traces our sense that the past is fixed and the future open to what she calls ‘the practical arrow’ – ‘the sense that we can affect the future but not the past.’ In this piece I draw a sharper distinction than Ismael herself does between agents and mere observers, even self-referential observers; and I use it to argue that Ismael’s explanation of the practical arrow is incomplete. To explain our inability to affect the past we need to appeal to (...) our own temporal orientation as agents, and not merely to the ingredients from physics that allow us to predict the consequences of our actions. [This piece is a commentary on J Ismael’s ‘The Open Universe: Totality, Self-Reference and Time’, to appear in the Australasian Philosophical Review.]. (shrink)

This is a draft Introduction for a collection of seventeen of my previously-published essays. The collection is forthcoming from OUP, with the title Making Modals: Pragmatic Perspectives on Probability, Causation, and Decision. The Table of Contents included lists the original sources of the remaining pieces, with links to online copies. Five of the essays are co-authored, with Peter Menzies, Brad Weslake, and Yang Liu (x3). The last section of this chapter (§16) explains the way the remaining chapters are grouped in (...) the volume, with notes on their contents. (shrink)

Causalists and Evidentialists can agree about the right course of action in an (apparent) Newcomb problem, if the causal facts are not as initially they seem. If declining $1,000 causes the Predictor to have placed $1m in the opaque box, CDT agrees with EDT that one-boxing is rational. This creates a difficulty for Causalists. We explain the problem with reference to Dummett's work on backward causation and Lewis's on chance and crystal balls. We show that the possibility that the causal (...) facts might be properly judged to be non-standard in Newcomb problems leads to a dilemma for Causalism. One horn embraces a subjectivist understanding of causation, in a sense analogous to Lewis's own subjectivist conception of objective chance. In this case the analogy with chance reveals a terminological choice point, such that either (i) CDT is completely reconciled with EDT, or (ii) EDT takes precedence in the cases in which the two theories give different recommendations. The other horn of the dilemma rejects subjectivism, but now the analogy with chance suggests that it is simply mysterious why causation so construed should constrain rational action. (shrink)

This piece was written as my Presidential Address at the Annual Conference of the Australasian Association of Philosophy, held at Melbourne University in July 1999. I discuss the view ‘that we can’t describe or theorise about the world from outside language.’ I call this idea ‘linguistic imprisonment’, and take it to be a platitude, although one that is interpreted very differently by different philosophers. In so far as language does depend on contingencies of our own ‘location’, how should we theorise (...) about such matters? I distinguish two approaches, called ‘backgrounding’ and ‘foregrounding’. Roughly, the latter seeks to incorporate the contingencies into the content of claims that depend on them, whereas the former treats them as use conditions. I argue that linguistic imprisonment implies that not everything can be foregrounded, and apply the framework to a then-recent objection to expressivism by Jackson and Pettit. (shrink)

In recent work Allan Gibbard claims to be both a local quasi-realist, in Blackburn’s sense, and a global expressivist. His local quasi-realism rests on an argument that for naturalistic discourse but not ethical discourse, the semantic relation of denotation and the causal relation of tracking can and should be identified; that denoting simply is tracking, for naturalistic vocabulary. I argue that Gibbard’s case for this conclusion is unconvincing, and poorly motivated by his own expressivist standards. I also argue that even (...) if it were successful, it is doubtful whether the resulting position would count as global expressivism, as Gibbard and I both use that term. (shrink)

This is a review of Zalabardo's Pragmatist Semantics (OUP, 2023), forthcoming in Mind.

This piece builds a discussion of themes from Rorty, Davidson, and Ramberg on two pieces of mine from 1999. One piece is 'Location, location, location' (LLL), my AAP Presidential Address that year. The other is 'Truth as convenient friction' (TCF), written for a conference with Rorty at ANU, and later published in the Journal of Philosophy. LLL is previously unpublished, but is reproduced as Section 2 here, with minor modifications. Section 3 is then in three parts. §3.1 begins with an (...) objection to my conclusions in LLL, based on Davidson’s remarks about externalism and triangulation. I don’t claim that Davidson would endorse this objection. On the contrary, it is clear that he would not—and partly for reasons that Ramberg emphasises, in criticising Rorty’s interpretation of Davidson. In §3.2 those reasons link to Rorty’s invocation of Davidson, in response to TCF. I argue that this move backfires for Rorty, supporting the main claim of TCF. I realised recently that in responding to Rorty on this point, I could have appealed to Bernard Williams’s (2002) characterization of ‘imaginary genealogy’. For this, Williams’s model is Edward Craig’s genealogy of the concept of knowledge (Craig, 1990). Yet, citing Davidson, Williams declines to seek what TCF claims to offer, a genealogy of truth itself. In §3.3 I argue that TCF thus has lessons for Williams and Davidson, as well as for Rorty. (shrink)

This is my review of Craig Callender's book What Makes Time Special?

Does artificial intelligence (AI) pose existential risks to humanity? Some critics feel this question is getting too much attention, and want to push it aside in favour of conversations about the immediate risks of AI. These critics now include the journal Nature, where a recent editorial urges us to 'stop talking about tomorrow's AI doomsday when AI poses risks today.' We argue that this is a serious failure of judgement, on Nature's part. In science, as in everyday life, we expect (...) influential actors to consider the consequences of error. As the world's leading scientific journal, Nature is certainly an influential actor, especially so in the absence of robust global regulation of AI. Yet it has manifestly failed to consider the cost of error in this case. (shrink)

In Philosophy and the Mirror of Nature (PMN) Rorty opposes representationalism about mind and language, and interprets Davidson as an ally. Yet Davidson insists that language and thought depend on speakers taking themselves to be subject to an objective standard of correctness, beyond themselves. Isn’t this mirroring, in some reasonable reading of Rorty’s metaphor? Yes, in my view, and there is more of a tension between PMN and Davidson than Rorty realises. But pragmatists can regard this objective standard as an (...) artefact of our own linguistic practices, rather than as a norm imposed by the world in some stronger sense. In this piece I discuss the genealogy of such a hand-made mirror with reference to Davidson, Brandom, and Rorty himself. (shrink)

Carnap was one of the first to use the term 'non-cognitivism'. His linguistic pluralism and voluntarism, and his deflationary views of ontology and semantics, are highly congenial to those of us who want to take non-cognitivism in the direction of global expressivism. In his own case, however, this move is in tension with his continued endorsement of what he calls 'the general thesis of logical empiricism', that 'there is no third kind of knowledge besides empirical and logical knowledge.’ So while (...) Carnap clears a path towards global expressivism, he doesn't seem to appreciate what it requires him to leave behind. (shrink)

This is a review of Amie Thomasson, Rethinking Metaphysics, Oxford University Press, 2025. xix + 250 pp.

This is my Cambridge PhD thesis, written under the supervision of Hugh Mellor and Richard Healey, and examined by Mary Hesse and Simon Blackburn. It addresses what it takes to be the core of the problem of single case probability, namely, the interpretation of claims such as ‘It is probable that P’ (where the probabilistic component occurs as a sentential or propositional operator). I argue that claims of this form are not genuinely truth-apt, and that such operators modify the force, (...) rather than the sense, of sentences or propositions to which they attach. In contemporary terms, I thus defend a version of what Yalcin (2012) has called ‘credal expressivism’. Some of the core arguments were later published in the following papers: (i) ‘Does “Probably” modify sense?’, Australasian Journal of Philosophy 61(1983), 396–408 and (ii) 'Mellor, chance and the single case', British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 35(1984), 11-23. Other arguments, including an attempt at the Frege-Geach problem, form the basis of an unpublished piece 'The use of force in a theory of meaning' (1983), accessible at PhilPapers. (shrink)

Hume maintained that, philosophically speaking, there is no difference between exiting a room out of the first-floor window and using the door. Nevertheless, Hume’s reason and common sense prevailed over his scepticism and he advocated that we should always use the door. However, we are currently living in a world that is more seriously committed to the Humean philosophy of empiricism than he was himself and thus the potential to act inappropriately is an ever-present potential. In this paper, I explore (...) how Hume’s two versions of causality have detrimentally affected our ability both to arrive at and to use research to improve human well-being. I illustrate my argument with an example of what I think is an incorrect yet supposedly scientifically sound assumption: that absenteeism causes poor school attainment. Instead I make the interdisciplinary argument that absenteeism is better understood as an aggravating symptom of a number of other causes of poor attainment, such as poverty and individual psychological factors. I suggest that an instrumental, punitive policy against parents whose children tend to be absent from school may be ineffectual or even counterproductive if the objective is to improve the well-being of those children. To support my argument, I introduce the critical realist idea of transfactuality. Using the example of research into moon rocks, I show how mainstream science uses transfactuality despite its empiricist aversion to it. I also suggest that it is our honesty, integrity, and stoicism that lead us to the extreme overthrow of reason and common sense that we see today in many of the UK’s social policies; an overthrow that Hume himself did not achieve. Metaphorically speaking, British professionals, stoically and honestly believing in the ability of their trusted research correlations to guide their action, are exiting out of the first-floor window rather than using the door. This is a significant barrier to our ability to devise and implement social policy. (shrink)

This piece was written circa 1982–83, drawing in part on material from my PhD thesis (The Problem of the Single Case, Cambridge, 1981). In the thesis I proposed what would now be called an expressivist account of judgements of the form ‘It is probable that p’. One chapter, on which this paper builds, tried to defend the view against the Frege-Geach argument. This piece earned a revise and resubmit from Philosophical Review, but was never resubmitted. Parts of it made their (...) way into my ‘Semantic Minimalism and the Frege Point’, in Tsohatzidis, S.L.(ed.), Foundations of Speech Act Theory: Philosophical and Linguistic Perspectives, Routledge, 1994, pp. 132–55 (reprinted in Naturalism without Mirrors, Oxford, 2011, ch. 3) – though that paper favours a different approach to the Frege-Geach argument, leaning more heavily on semantic minimalism. I’m putting this piece online to facilitate self-citation. (shrink)

This essay is my contribution to a celebratory volume for Mr Peter Ho, former head of Singapore's Civil Service, from whom I learned the phrase ‘black elephant’. I reflect on four elephants among my own interests: in other words, big things (in my estimation), in clear sight but invisible to many eyes. They are: (i) retrocausality in quantum theory; (ii) child conscription and the monarchy; (iii) AI risk; and (iv) cold fusion. As I say in the piece, my little herd (...) is big enough to make some comparisons – though this may be the only occasion on which they congregate in the same room. (shrink)

A review of Simon Blackburn’s book Truth: A Guide for the Perplexed.