{"id":"https://openalex.org/W7129073451","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2602.12373","title":"Policy4OOD: A Knowledge-Guided World Model for Policy Intervention Simulation against the Opioid Overdose Crisis","display_name":"Policy4OOD: A Knowledge-Guided World Model for Policy Intervention Simulation against the Opioid Overdose Crisis","publication_year":2026,"publication_date":"2026-02-12","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W7129073451","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2602.12373"},"language":null,"primary_location":{"id":"pmh:doi:10.48550/arxiv.2602.12373","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":null,"pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4406922384","display_name":"Open MIND","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Article"},"type":"preprint","indexed_in":["datacite"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5126165784","display_name":"Yijun Ma","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Ma, Yijun","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5126097952","display_name":"Zehong Wang","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Wang, Zehong","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5126159596","display_name":"Weixiang Sun","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sun, Weixiang","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100691429","display_name":"Zheyuan Zhang","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2878-0788"},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Zhang, Zheyuan","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5126085252","display_name":"Kaiwen Shi","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Shi, Kaiwen","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5126106659","display_name":"Nitesh Chawla","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Chawla, Nitesh","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5126145103","display_name":"Yanfang Ye","orcid":null},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ye, Yanfang","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":7,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5126165784"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10576","display_name":"Opioid Use Disorder Treatment","score":0.6762999892234802,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10576","display_name":"Opioid Use Disorder Treatment","score":0.6762999892234802,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11860","display_name":"HIV, Drug Use, Sexual Risk","score":0.054099999368190765,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":0.014700000174343586,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/counterfactual-thinking","display_name":"Counterfactual thinking","score":0.7940999865531921},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/opioid-overdose","display_name":"Opioid overdose","score":0.598800003528595},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/psychological-intervention","display_name":"Psychological intervention","score":0.5631999969482422},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/policy-analysis","display_name":"Policy analysis","score":0.426800012588501},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/counterfactual-conditional","display_name":"Counterfactual conditional","score":0.39489999413490295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/construct","display_name":"Construct (python library)","score":0.39169999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/socioeconomic-status","display_name":"Socioeconomic status","score":0.3905999958515167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/public-policy","display_name":"Public policy","score":0.3515999913215637}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C108650721","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1783253","display_name":"Counterfactual thinking","level":2,"score":0.7940999865531921},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779148768","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17154378","display_name":"Opioid overdose","level":5,"score":0.598800003528595},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27415008","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7256382","display_name":"Psychological intervention","level":2,"score":0.5631999969482422},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C123587114","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2101508","display_name":"Policy analysis","level":2,"score":0.426800012588501},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4212000072002411},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.41850000619888306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.4065999984741211},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71889745","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1783264","display_name":"Counterfactual conditional","level":3,"score":0.39489999413490295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780801425","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5164392","display_name":"Construct (python library)","level":2,"score":0.39169999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147077947","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1515895","display_name":"Socioeconomic status","level":3,"score":0.3905999958515167},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100001284","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2248246","display_name":"Public economics","level":1,"score":0.35740000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C109986646","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q546113","display_name":"Public policy","level":2,"score":0.3515999913215637},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112930515","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4389547","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","level":1,"score":0.34769999980926514},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3017944768","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1450463","display_name":"Poison control","level":2,"score":0.3472999930381775},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138816342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189603","display_name":"Public health","level":2,"score":0.3391999900341034},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780665704","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q959298","display_name":"Intervention (counseling)","level":2,"score":0.3248000144958496},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C182306322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1779371","display_name":"Order (exchange)","level":2,"score":0.26980000734329224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C47344431","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1519812","display_name":"Health policy","level":3,"score":0.26820001006126404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C157085824","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2384809","display_name":"TRIPS architecture","level":2,"score":0.26660001277923584},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C42475967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q194292","display_name":"Operations research","level":1,"score":0.26510000228881836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119693030","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2180497","display_name":"Economic model","level":2,"score":0.2639000117778778},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.2632000148296356},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C84525736","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q831366","display_name":"Decision tree","level":2,"score":0.26269999146461487},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781063702","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q427523","display_name":"Opioid","level":3,"score":0.2558000087738037},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148220186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7111912","display_name":"Outcome (game theory)","level":2,"score":0.2538999915122986}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:doi:10.48550/arxiv.2602.12373","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":null,"pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4406922384","display_name":"Open MIND","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Article"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.2602.12373","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2602.12373","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":null,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:doi:10.48550/arxiv.2602.12373","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":null,"pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4406922384","display_name":"Open MIND","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.6348140239715576,"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3"}],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":[],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0],"opioid":[1,44,119,169],"epidemic":[2],"remains":[3],"one":[4,33],"of":[5,197],"the":[6,13,122,142,154,195],"most":[7],"severe":[8],"public":[9,202],"health":[10,203],"crises":[11],"in":[12,141],"United":[14],"States,":[15],"yet":[16],"evaluating":[17],"policy":[18,45,102,139,146,175,184],"interventions":[19,67],"before":[20],"implementation":[21],"is":[22],"difficult:":[23],"multiple":[24],"policies":[25,91],"interact":[26],"within":[27],"a":[28,80,113,127,132,163],"dynamic":[29],"system":[30],"where":[31,93],"targeting":[32],"risk":[34],"pathway":[35],"may":[36],"inadvertently":[37],"amplify":[38],"another.":[39],"We":[40,77],"argue":[41],"that":[42,85,116,179],"effective":[43],"evaluation":[46],"requires":[47,130],"three":[48,87],"capabilities":[49],"--":[50,68],"forecasting":[51,129,188],"future":[52,118],"outcomes":[53],"under":[54],"current":[55],"policies,":[56],"counterfactual":[57,135],"reasoning":[58],"about":[59],"alternative":[60,138],"past":[61],"decisions,":[62],"and":[63,69,96,108,145,173,182,194],"optimization":[64,147],"over":[65,153],"candidate":[66],"propose":[70],"to":[71],"unify":[72],"them":[73],"through":[74],"world":[75,83,123,198],"modeling.":[76],"introduce":[78],"Policy4OOD,":[79],"knowledge-guided":[81],"spatio-temporal":[82],"model":[84,124],"addresses":[86],"core":[88],"challenges:":[89],"what":[90],"prescribe,":[92],"effects":[94,98],"manifest,":[95],"when":[97],"unfold.Policy4OOD":[99],"jointly":[100],"encodes":[101],"knowledge":[103,185],"graphs,":[104],"state-level":[105,164],"spatial":[106,180],"dependencies,":[107],"socioeconomic":[109,171],"time":[110],"series":[111],"into":[112],"policy-conditioned":[114],"Transformer":[115],"forecasts":[117],"outcomes.Once":[120],"trained,":[121],"serves":[125],"as":[126],"simulator:":[128],"only":[131],"forward":[133],"pass,":[134],"analysis":[136],"substitutes":[137],"encodings":[140],"historical":[143],"sequence,":[144],"employs":[148],"Monte":[149],"Carlo":[150],"Tree":[151],"Search":[152],"learned":[155],"simulator.":[156],"To":[157],"support":[158],"this":[159],"framework,":[160],"we":[161],"construct":[162],"monthly":[165],"dataset":[166],"(2019--2024)":[167],"integrating":[168],"mortality,":[170],"indicators,":[172],"structured":[174,183],"encodings.":[176],"Experiments":[177],"demonstrate":[178],"dependencies":[181],"significantly":[186],"improve":[187],"accuracy,":[189],"validating":[190],"each":[191],"architectural":[192],"component":[193],"potential":[196],"modeling":[199],"for":[200],"data-driven":[201],"decision":[204],"support.":[205]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-04-04T16:13:02.066488","created_date":"2026-02-17T00:00:00"}